Thursday, February 16, 2012

Cassandra I Ain't, But Here's What I See Coming

Warning - serious wild-ass speculation ahead.  May not be suitable for those under 18.  May not be suitable for those over 18.  May not be suitable for those without a luxuriant, plush Wookiee suit. Do not remove this tag until after sale.

There are many in the liberty sphere of bloggers who claim to stand by Israel.  I have made no secret of my support.  Joe Huffman's View From North Central Idaho pre-dates me online by a long time, and is famous for his "Jews in the Attic Test", for an easy example.  Many other bloggers have talked about the subject and expressed support in varying ways.

And then there's the other side that blames all the troubles in the region or the whole world on the Jews.  Incidentally, I don't believe it's possible to separate support for Israel from support for the Jews, and attempts to label the perceived problem as Zionism are dishonest at best.  Israel as a nation state has many peculiarities: it has a lot of the same secular attributes seen here, for example, and is not strictly a Jewish population.  I have seen many Israeli Arabs who say they prefer living under the Jews than under Arab leadership.  I have friends who have been there and seen how good a place it is. 

It seems to be widely believed that Israel is going to involve us in a war against Iran.  I don't believe this.  I think Israel is trying to make sure we don't fight on Iran's side if they get into a ruckus.  In '09 Former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said we should shoot down Israeli planes if they enter Iraqi air space.  We seem to have decided (by default) not to do that, but the situation got really weird when the Saudis granted Israel permission to overfly the Kingdom to attack Iran (think this just affects Israel?).  As I tell my wife, in the event of trouble, she has my back and I'd appreciate her not shooting me in it.  I think that's what Israel wants out of us - not to shoot her in the back. 

I think Iran's most logical gambit is to attack us first, not Israel.  I'll get back to this later.  There's a lot of talk about a war in that region coming as part of the general historical trend: when countries get as desperately screwed up as about 2/3 of the world is now, wars often follow. 

Let's pick up the story here: did Iranian agents assassinate Israeli diplomats?  Almost certainly, based on the Iranians that were captured.  Did Israeli agents assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists?  Almost certainly.  In fact, I darn well hope so!  Is either party pure and innocent?  Not a chance.  No country on earth is perfect, not them, not us; not one".

It's silly to argue about whether or not Iran is trying to get nuclear weapons.  Of course they are.  You only need so many centrifuges to refine fuel for a power station, and they reached that number years ago.  The question is whether or not they are going to make good on their fiery speeches and attempt to wipe Israel out.  The real question is: do they want a nuke for deterrence or to attack someone? 

Let's put it in terms of analogy.   As a group, we are all very conscious of self-defense, and most of us probably carry a weapon regularly, if not daily.  Most of us have had training.   If someone frequently threatened to kill you and your family, and you saw them laying in bombs or bomb making supplies, or perhaps getting cases of ammo, or other supplies that could be used against you, what would you do?  Perhaps you wouldn't go kill your neighbor but you sure would try to find out what he was up to, and do your best to make sure your place was secured, right?  Would you take a bullet before you did something?  Would you let your wife, your child, or your parent take a bullet?  What if that neighbor was the grandchild of someone who had killed someone in your grandparents' family? What if that first strike could take out your whole house,  your whole family, and everyone you know?  Would that raise the stakes?

One of the best papers ever put on the net was put up by Marko at Munchkin Wrangler.  It begins
Human beings only have two ways to deal with one another: reason and force. If you want me to do something for you, you have a choice of either convincing me via argument, or force me to do your bidding under threat of force. Every human interaction falls into one of those two categories, without exception. Reason or force, that's it.
The same basically applies here.  In political terms, it's diplomacy or war (war is diplomacy by other means).  Much like the situation of trying to reason with someone bent on killing you, or raping you, your adversary might not respond to diplomacy.  That leaves war, either a wide open full "dogs of war" rampage leaving many dead, or - perhaps - the "third option"; covert operations.  Stuxnet is the first thing I think of, but selectively killing the head scientists on the project could be another example.  Is that "fair"; is assassination of scientists a valid tactic?  Why is that different from a sniper taking out an enemy commander?  Why is it somehow OK to bomb a building from 30,000 feet and kill more or less randomly, but it gives people the "heebie jeebies" to target someone? 


What does supporting Israel mean?  Start with an easy one: I'm not going to condemn them for doing what any other nation would do in the same situation.  I'm not going to condemn them in the UN.  The next one is obvious: Israel has a right to exist and a right to the land they've been on since they took it in the 1967 war.  They have tried to exchange "land for peace" over and over again and given back a lot of territory they took; it will never work if the other side doesn't want peace.  The other side doesn't want a "two state solution", they want Israel gone.  It's plainly there in their writings.

I said I think Iran would attack us first; here's why.  Taking them literally at their words, they want "the Great Satan" gone (that would be you, if you're American).  They want Israel gone.  They want an Islamic flag over the White House.  They want hegemony over the Middle East.  The answer to all of those is to get rid of us, or at least get us out of the way.  They could do that with a big enough attack on our soil to get us to call all troops home to try and keep order. One example would be like the TV show Jericho; a dozen nukes go off in a dozen US cities.  That would be hard and risk detection.  Far easier would be to set off an EMP bomb.  Only one, small device is needed.  It could be launched from a ship or from Venezuela, where they are working on missile launch sites.  Once we're out of the region, they could take over the Mideast at their own pace.  Annihilating Israel would be an early step.  I don't see the Iranians have much risk; what are we going to do?  Our country is in the stone age, millions are dying and we're going to start a land war in Iran without a re-supply chain?  The only option we'd have would be to nuke them, and hasn't China said they'd take that as an attack on them?  I think it would be a decapitation strike that would effectively end the US. 

But there's another way; we could be gotten rid of by economic collapse.  If they can mess up the world financial markets enough to start the dominoes falling, they might be able to achieve the same goals.  Our economy wouldn't be able to pay the forces overseas, and we'd have to bring them home.  On to taking out Israel.  Plus, we seem to be doing a pretty good job of collapsing our economy on our own. 

9 comments:

RegT said...

SG,

I agree with most everything you've said. I don't know if you read my blog from yesterday or not, but it was on the same topic.

If we had a real President, who was a real C-I-C, we could - and would - respond in the event of an attack on Israel. Hell, even post-EMP I think we would still possess the capability of military action. I can't imagine we don't have plans and hardened equipment ready for such an event.

But, as you indicated, Israel needs to be more concerned with not getting stabbed in the back by our current administration, which has demonstrated a preference for the sound of the muezzin voicing the muslim "call to prayer" over the sound of freedom (definitely over the songs of the cantor). Barry Soetero, didn't change his name to Barack Hussein Obama because he thinks Jews are nice people, who deserve to be allowed to live in peace.

Thank you for standing up for Israel and the Jews. "John Mosby" did on his web site, "Nous Defions", too. They are not the cause of so much of the trouble mankind has faced throughout the ages, they are the victims. They have suffered every bit as much as blacks have suffered slavery and discrimination, although for thousands of years longer.

There are bad Jews - look at Schumer - just as there are bad Christians - look at Carter (one of the most anti-Semitic politicians we have ever elected). There are liberal Jews, Israelis that would put _our_ liberals to shame for their Leftist disconnect from reality, but most of the Israelis simply want to be allowed to live without getting shot, blown up, their throats slit, or their women and children murdered by muslim scum.

If I wasn't old and decrepit, I'd gladly emigrate and join the IDF. I wish I had been more mature and aware when I was younger, I would have done it then, gentile - "goy" - that I am.

Underground Carpenter said...

Graybeard,

I don't love or hate Israel. I got my own problems; let them handle theirs.

"I don't believe it's possible to separate support for Israel from support for the Jews"

I'm guessing that there are probably some Jews, at least somewhere on this planet, that don't kneel in worshipful respect to the Israeli government. If I were Jewish, I'd be one of them.

The chain of "reasoning" is thus:

If we don't attack Iran at once, then we don't truly love Israel, and by extension, we hate America.

The American Government (which is not me) thinks that "diplomacy" is bombing the shit out of the people standing in the dark. I'm not a hawk or a dove; I'm a human, and I think we should leave others alone and give them respect until they deserve otherwise.

Dave

Graybeard said...

Dave, thanks for your comments, but for the life of me, I can't figure out what I said that leads into your last paragraphs.

I never said I worship the Israeli government; I said they're no better than any other government. I didn't say anything about us attacking Iran, with Israel or without, or attacking Iran at all. I said I expect them to attack us. Finally, I didn't endorse bombing the shit out of anyone at anytime. I said I believe Israel has a right to exist and I wouldn't support condemning them for doing what any other country would do.

Diogenes said...

Linked as main hit on quick post on my site. (partially in reference to my prior post, which was a bit of a rant)
Thanks for taking the time to tap out CREDIBLE points for others to see. I firmly believe that all things are reaching a crux where we will see world powers shifting hands with the speed of a Texas Auctioneer at the helm. It all remains on 'who/what gives first'.

Anonymous said...

First, your entire premis is based on as I understand it, a purposefully mis-translated speech by Dinner Jacket about Israel that of course we were forcefed by our 4th estate.

I have nothing against Israel or Jewish people. Thst being said, I cannot concur with you assessment of Zionism. These are different animals.

I cannot buy into the drumming of "Iran is going to attack us or Israel." It is as fictious as the "nuke clouds over America cause Saddam has WMDs." Israel can stand on her own, as she has said repeatedly.

Our handlers understand that their ponzi is coming undone, humans are waking up and they need a new "threat" to "our way of life" to attempt to deflect their actions in causing what is inevitable. War is a great way to rally perceptions that they have been molding for years. I do not want to hear about a "War on Terror (now on us)" or Iran is going to get us with the damn borders wide open. It makes no sense what so ever.

All to usher in a much stronger uniglobal oligarchal ruling paradigm. This all about strenghtening the Banking grip on all of us, everywhere. Obama in fact, stated that Iran was a threat to international banking in his EO imposing sanctions on Iran.

Ultimately, I fear the clowns in DC, much more than Dinner Jacket and his crew.

Pickdog
III

Anonymous said...

Good posting except for your point regarding Mossad assassinating the Iranian scientists.

I'm not claiming that they haven't done so but there are enough tensions, differences of opinion and power struggles in Iran that (IMHO) they are most likely to have been killed by their own side.

Iran is so paranoid and heavily policed that infiltrating Mossad agents into Iran, either to whack an Iranian directly (costly and dangerous) or to set up opposition parties and resistance cells (even more dangerous as the recruits can turn in their controllers and get mega Brownie Points)isn't worth the candle. Imagine if a proven Mossad agent WAS captured alive - you imagine that the Iranians wouldn't milk it for every possible drop of propaganda?

I think it is significant that the method the Iranians used to target the Israeli embassy personnel this last week are identical to the methods used to target the Iranian scientists (magnetic bombs in particular).

However, I dare say that Mossad quietly raises a glass every time an assassination takes place.

As an analogy, it would be like saying every Mafia Don and footsoldier killed in America since 1950 was whacked by the FBI. They MIGHT have whacked one or two but the intertribal wars between the mafia organisations is most likely to have been "The greatest cause of unexpected early mortality" (to quote a quptable quote). Likewise the Iranians are most likely to have been the assassins.

Phil B

Graybeard said...

Interesting points. Thanks!

Graybeard said...

Ultimately, I fear the clowns in DC, much more than Dinner Jacket and his crew.

Well, yeah, they certainly are a closer threat and currently doing much more damage, but it just wasn't what I was talking about.

Oh, and a purposefully mis-translated speech by Dinner Jacket about Israel that of course we were forcefed by our 4th estate. where would you ever get the idea I rely on our media for anything?

RegT said...

I see we still have the "Rothschilds , the Tri-Lateral Commission , the Jewish Bankers are running the world" conspiracy theorists among us. Poster children for the tin foil hats you posted earlier.

What part of the many speeches given by the President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, wherein he states his specific intention of destroying Israel don't they understand? He has been quite explicit about it, more so than even Hamas.

The liberal Jews in this country - you know, the ones who keep electing Schumer, and who voted for Obama - don't support Israel. The _real_ Jews in this country, the ones who remember the Holocaust and know someone who suffered during that horror, who understand what it was about, do support Israel and what she stands for. "Next year, in Jerusalem."

I think Obama and his cronies are the only ones who want war with Iran. Israel doesn't, none of the Jews or Israelis I know want it, and I don't want it. But, if we simply won't help Israel to survive in the face of all the goat-raping muslims who _do_ want to destroy her, then we should have the balls to leave her alone to fight the battle herself, without the stumbling blocks, the demands for "restraint", "land for peace" and other crap that our government (Republican as well as Democrat) has been dragging her down with, lo these many years.

I didn't realize Mel Gibson's daddy fathered so many hebephobes beside ol' Mel himself.