Wednesday, December 12, 2012

2013 Is Looking Pretty Shaky

WRSA links to this post by Amity Shlaes on the parallels between what we see for 2013 and 1937 under FDR.  1937 was the Depression Within The Depression, part of the reason the US calls it The Great Depression and the rest of the world just thinks of it as The Depression. (Her home on the web)

I've read her book "The Forgotten Man", called the "finest history of the Great Depression ever written" by Steven Hayward of the American Enterprise Institute.  Naturally, Paul Krugman hates it because she presents evidence that FDR's policies didn't end the depression.  Amity is one of a few genuine experts on the Depression.  If she's talking about things in that period, I'm listening. 

There's that whole theatrical song and dance going on in DC about the "Fiscal Cliff".  Not to say there's not going to be effects from it, but it currently appears to be all about politics.  I'm inclined to agree with the viewpoint that the administration would be perfectly happy to go over the cliff as long as they can get it all blamed on the Stupid party.  Think of it this way, they've arranged a no-lose scenario; if the Stupid party caves on tax increases, it's like George H.W. Bush's famous "read my lips" cave, "OK, we'll raise taxes now and come back later to cut spending" which never happened.  The ability to run on a promise to cut taxes gets severely compromised.  And if the Stupids don't cave and everything goes "over the cliff", the Evils first blame everything on the Stupids, then pass "Middle class tax reform" in the spring, with their solid majorities.  Win-win-win for the Evils. 
(Eric Allie at Townhall)
Taxes are going up, no matter who you are.  Obamacare is just getting started.

Back when that stupid story about "Warren Buffet pays less tax than his secretary" was in the news, I said,
"...if it's wrong that Buffet pays 15% on capital gains while his secretary pays 35% on ordinary income, let's drop her tax rate to 15%, too. "
DC to the rescue.  They not only didn't cut her taxes to the 15% dividend rate, they raised dividend taxes to 43% (for the top brackets - like Warren is in)!  

It's so crazy, that the Bernank all but announces QE4 and nobody says anything about it!   Remember the announcement, just a few months ago, that they would buy $40 Billion in bonds per month, ad infinitum?  They increased that to $85 billion/month at today's meeting.  And nobody says a word...

At this point, it's impossible to know what the big picture will look like for next year.  I expect a more serious recession.  I only know one thing: I sure don't see any signs that we're moving in any directions to avert fiscal collapse. 


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Taxes are going up, no matter who you are. Obamacare is just getting started."

Oh yes. I can't help but think how SHOCKED will be the in&out-laws who gleefully voted this obscenity in 2x, when the truth finally sinks in.

And. One may notice that it is never INCOME that is discussed, but WEALTH - as if the two where synonomous. Meaning therefore expect to see some form of taxation on wealth or on the trappings thereof, because now income is conflated with wealth in the view of the obamaa masses.

The original Forgotten Man essay:

http://library.mises.org/books/William%20Graham%20Sumner/The%20Forgotten%20Man%20and%20Other%20Essays.pdf


itor

Anonymous said...

SGB,

This has not been addressed in "our community", currently used to "refuel drones" - consider implications.

http://news.msn.com/science-technology/video?videoid=c49846b4-04c7-4017-ae4f-fab56c3ad3d8

VICTOR

Anonymous said...

SBG,

New link for last comment.

(http://news.msn.com/science-technology/video?videoid=c49846b4-04c7-4017-ae4f-fab56c3ad3d8#tscptme) '

VICTOR

RegT said...

From everything I have read, FDR actually made the Depression worse, causing it to last longer than it would have if market forces had been allowed to function without government interference. But, that's pretty much a given, isn't it?

Graybeard said...

Interesting - thanks for that. Has some obvious problems (fog, dust, and junk - not to mention mirrors) but seems on the verge of being useful.

Would make a serious weapon!

Graybeard said...

There have been several books advancing that idea, including Amity's book. You can tell how strongly the left hates that idea by how they attack anyone who gets near their "saint" FDR.

Graybeard said...

You will note that when talk turns to wealth, folks like Warren Buffet will shut up. I may be too cynical (hah) but taxing income allows guys like Buffet, Gates, Geffen, and the Hollywood elites to stay on top by keeping others from making enough to threaten them. Taxing wealth hurts these major donors.

It's no coincidence that the 10 richest counties in America and the richest neighborhoods in far more of them voted solidly for Obama. Keep the potentially rising portion of the "upper 2%" from cutting into their empire. See VDH's articles on Calley-fornia as two weird states in one border...