Wednesday, November 25, 2015

As We Enter "The Holiday Season"

With Hat Tip to Michael Bane's blog:
The words to listen to in the political gobbledygook going by are "Article 5" especially if those words are accompanied by the word NATO.   Article 5 of the NATO treaty is the "collective defense" article; the one that says an attack on any NATO member is viewed as an attack on them all.  You can be sure that Putin is aware of that and it's being figured into his gaming.  If there were any Warsaw pact left to counter it, they might well have thought the same of Turkey's action.  To quote from Tam:
  • This has the potential to spin right the f*** out of control before anybody involved realizes what they're doing.
To the suggestion that Russia would just continue to punk NATO with no response:
  • Yeah, see, sooner or later some individual fighter pilot or other trigger puller isn't going to understand that he's supposed to be punked.
There are a lot of people saying we're in the early days of WWIII, we just don't know it.  I think we'll be finding out.  I don't think that Russia has the military strength to go down the road of pushing NATO.  Strategy Page noted this weakness in numbers the other day (H/T to BRM)
The Russian intervention in Syria involves some 4,000 troops and about fifty warplanes and helicopters. The small size of this force exposes a sad fact of post-Cold War Russia; the military no longer has much in the way of combat capability and few post-Cold War weapons. Thus Russia has few smart bombs and is mostly relying on unguided bombs built in the 1980s,  ...  The Russian air force and navy are now less than ten percent of their Cold War strength and the army has fewer combat brigades than it did armies during the Cold War.
So they'll likely do something more subtle to hit Turkey, perhaps something like Col. Ralph Peters suggests in this video

May you live in interesting times, indeed.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving, folks!


  1. If Putin runs the numbers, I think he might make a bigger move than we otherwise might expect. NATO forces have downsized too, and the EU especially is faced with bigger domestic issues - hundreds of thousands of "refugees" refusing to assimilate and demanding so much from the various governments that they may find their infrastructures collapsing. The various militaries of each country may find themselves unable to even deal with the "refugee" invasion spinning out of control, let alone responding to a "NATO" threat.

    Beyond that, I don't believe NATO has the will to face down even a weakened Russian military, if Putin is willing to push. Obama certainly isn't going to rush to NATO's defense, and probably couldn't if he wanted to, considering how he has down-sized the military and purged it off warriors (among the flag officers, at least).

    I think Putin may well test the waters first, perhaps by taking out a few Turkish fighters. If/when there is no substantial (only threats and bluster followed by no action) response from either us or NATO, he may push the envelope a bit by hitting one or two of Turkey's air bases, insuring he doesn't lose any more aircraft.

  2. I think Putin will indeed take his revenge. I also believe he can do so without causing NATO to invoke article 5.
    Turkey has always been a reluctant member of NATO and they have always been NATO's problem child. But Turkey is very strategically located and that is their value to NATO.

    We are in WW III. We don't acknowledge it but it is a fact. Sooner or later it will be obvious to everyone. Maybe then we will choose to fight as though our lives depended on it.

  3. Art. 5 , civil unrest/civil war/race war ,gun confiscation, ISIS , refugee crisis, "copyright laws" that end almost any/all/ , video upload citizen reporting and we supposed to think that Russia is the problem for being the only power in Europe opposed to the Neo-Con/NATO "war in perpetuity" plan? What is it that Obama NATO (the UN's Army) and the UNGA (the guys behind ALL of the evil of late)want to cover up and what do they want the sheep to except? "limited" atomic bombardment? Martial law? suspended elections? I don't know. I just know that Vlad Putin isn't the problem or its root.....Ray

  4. The US is using Turkey as a proxy to provoke Russia, to make it seem to the Faux Skews
    watchers that Russia is the aggressor, when in reality the US has created/funded/directed ISIS/ISIL/Al Queada/Taliban to be the proxy destabilizing force in MENA.

    Just as with Libya, Egypt, Tunisia,Yemen &c., now Syria. Just as with Kermit Roosevelt working to overthrow the Iranian government in 1953; just as described by Maj. Gen, Smedley Butler USMC in 1933.

    The US, still using Iran as the middle east boogeyman. And those who refuse to learn from history lap it up, and ask for more.


  5. I assume Ray and Itor are crazy conspiracy theorists or foreign agitators. Ray please feel free to immigrate to Russia and Itor to Iran. Maybe then you will wake up.

  6. Anon: I assume that you are a federal troll paid by the dictatorship in DC to support anti-Russia / pro WW3 propaganda. What happened? You federal guys used to be good at this.--Ray

  7. Well, Ray, if you don't want to be viewed as a tin foil hat nut you need to learn to be more coherent AND most importantly do not repeat the crazy claims that you read on those crazy web sites that used to only talk about flying saucers and little green men but now talk about 'neo-con' conspiracy theories and encourage people to arm up against our government.

    Am I a "federal troll paid by the dictatorship in DC to support anti-Russia / pro WW3 propaganda." I suppose in a way I am since I served 20 years in the military and I am indeed anti-Russian. Sorry to have to tell you Ray but in 20 years in the military I worked with and met great people who loved this country.

    If you have a problem with the UN (and god knows I do to) than make your case without smearing everyone with your broad brush. And for crying out loud please look up and figure out what a 'neo-con' is. You have been snookered by the left who have co-opted that word and made it into something it is not.

  8. So, Mr 20 year fedtroll, please feel free to correct my conspiracy inaccuracies with historical fact.



  9. Anon: Neo-Con. As in Neo- conservative.(aka the CIA/NSA/ federal military dictatorship) The new name for the Nazi party. The guys who have advocated , started , supported ,planed, every war and act of global terror/murder in the last 40+ years. The enemy of god and man. War mongering evil in its purest form. In other words you. Russia is not the enemy. They DID NOT start this war. The CIA and military scumbags in DC did. This is just another attempt at global domination for the god almighty dollar. A mountain of dead children that flag waving military murderer's everywhere should embrace with pride. America has been for my lifetime, the greatest evil in human history. I for one refuse to support another phony "cold war" that gives cover to the scum that run it. You are both stupid and evil and I will not further debate your idiocy. ---Ray

  10. Ray -
    Neoconservatism (commonly shortened to neocon) is a political movement born in the United States during the 1960s among Democrats who became disenchanted with the party's domestic and especially foreign policy.

    I don't think you mean neocon. Perhaps you do really believe that some conservatives are too zealous in their desire to fight the terrorists. Maybe you watch too much Russian TV and believe we created and funded ISIS. But what ever your particular tin foil hat belief is I'm pretty sure it wasn't the neocons who were the conspirators.

    Itor - "please feel free to correct my conspiracy inaccuracies with historical fact."

    I would be happy to. Present one! Give me your best case for it. Who knows I may agree with you. But don't lump 10 or 20 rumors together or make some simple claim without any specifics. Give me just one great example clearly stated and supported with facts.

  11. Whether or not Turkey should have shot down the Russian plane is and will be a subject of debate for a while.....perhaps a LONG WHILE. However one must ask
    a question.... exactly what was the government of Turkey to do? Russia has for
    the past couple years been flagrantly violating the airspace and territorial waters of many countries including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the UK and even ours up in Alaska. 'Escorting' Russian military planes that come to close to places they don't belong is once again becoming a routine occurrence. Turkey had called the
    Russian ambassador to appear and had formally protested on repeat occasions the
    violation of it's airspace. It would appear that Putin thought it was nothing but
    hot air.....he was wrong. Of course he AND the surviving pilot are lying about
    what happened, but only a fool would believe they would fess up and admit that
    international laws had been broken and airspace violated. But if one actually looks
    at a map of the region where the Turkmen reside it's obvious. The eastern side of
    the mountains they retreat to cannot be attacked by jet fighter/bombers without
    crossing Turkish territory. There is no question that Russia violated Turkish order to attack the targets they wanted to destroy required it. The
    only issue is why is Putin doubling down and pushing back. And while he's huffing and puffing and playing like he's the victim I bet no Russian planes have violated
    airspace again.

  12. Russia may not actually have the military strength to go down the road of pushing NATO, but Putin does have the balls and military strength to go down the road of pushing NATO as long as Moehommmmmudd is pResident of the US. And so far, he is still that.......

  13. OK, fedtroll, since you attempted a broad brush "conspiracy" charge, without any specifics - go for it.

    And, please elucidate re: your perceived need to wake us up.

    Think you're up for that?


  14. itor:
    It was you who made the wildass claims. I simply don't agree with them. Then you challenged me to prove you wrong on your wildass conspiracy claims. I took that challenge and offered to discus or argue any claim you wish to put out there. But instead after much thinking have decided to shy away from the challenge you originally threw down and revert to name calling.

    So present your best conspiracy theory and let's talk...