The morning spaghetti plot of all the models shows almost unanimous agreement that the storm is going to get picked up by an approaching low pressure system and turn north; the question is how soon it gets picked up and where it ends up hitting.
There's a difference between forecasting and reading computer models, but the NHC is pretty good. Granted, they have a tendency to be melodramatic when a storm is close, they forecast a much, much worse scenario for Hurricane Matthew last October than we really got, but they still get pretty close. I've read that they overstate the forecasts deliberately, saying that people won't evacuate unless they overstate it, but IMO that just feeds the cycle. People see the overstated forecast (cat 4 hurricane onshore, death and destruction) vs. the reality (cat 3 storm well offshore, barely hurricane force winds onshore) and ignore the "official" forecasts.
It takes two days to evacuate the keys, so folks down there should be getting out of town by Friday, maybe Thursday. For us, midway up the East Coast, evacuation depends on what kind of storm we're getting and I don't see a way to know that for a few days. I really doubt it could be a Cat 5 with any substantial land interfering with wind inflow, but if it stays off the East Coast, it could remain a Cat 4. That would be exceedingly unpleasant, but I'm pretty sure the house would make it barring bad flying debris, a tornado, or something like that. If it comes up the center of state, or rides the coast, I think it's cat 2 or cat 3. I recall some storm in around '07 or '08, maybe Fay in '08, where the forecast called for it to intensify coming up the center of the state - I remember joking about that with co-workers wondering what planet something like that could happen on. It did not intensify.
To steal a meme from Gunfree Zone.