tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post7593443256765555944..comments2024-03-28T08:06:43.198-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: Is It By Fire or Ice? (Cont'd)SiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-34448817056939996702016-11-21T05:01:47.582-05:002016-11-21T05:01:47.582-05:00https://mises.org/library/rothbard-revises-history...https://mises.org/library/rothbard-revises-history-great-depression<br /><br />This link excerpts the introduction to Rothbard's _America's Great Depression_. Search down for "In the meantime, Rothbard had produced, in 1963",<br /><br />Rothbard describes the US Great Depression as inflationary. Lots of currency was created by Hoover, and when that didn't produce the desired economic effect even more was created. The economy shrunk while the total currency issued grew.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-77488586040809453862016-11-20T18:09:44.971-05:002016-11-20T18:09:44.971-05:00There is a youtube series "The Hidden Secrets...There is a youtube series "The Hidden Secrets of Money" that is worth watching. Next up in the cycle is big deflation and just in time for the Donald to release huge infrastructure projects to go with an inflationary cycle. Y-nothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17801849337803024182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-89184035185580185832016-11-20T16:42:12.340-05:002016-11-20T16:42:12.340-05:00You mean besides the Great Depression and other de...You mean besides the Great Depression and other depressions? <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-17106521776796321902016-11-20T13:21:10.044-05:002016-11-20T13:21:10.044-05:00Are there historical deflationary collapse events ...Are there historical deflationary collapse events to reference? <br /><br />All I have heard of are inflationary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-11763798501281475012016-11-20T03:09:04.843-05:002016-11-20T03:09:04.843-05:00In most of these links, including the Gonzalo Lira...In most of these links, including the Gonzalo Lira piece on businessinsider.com, I believe there's confusion from switching the definitions of "inflation" and "currency" mid-argument. I define currency inflation as creating more currency, period. Doesn't matter for currency inflation how the productive output of the economy, measured in goods and services, went up or down. However, when the mortgages went bust in the mortgage crisis, that was currency deflation. The currency in those loans was inflated by fractional reserve, then it vanished.<br /><br /><i>taylor: The sudden loss of faith in the currency has a hyper-deflationary effect as the market tries to find a new medium of exchange and barter markets emerge</i><br /><br />Sudden loss of faith in the currency doesn't deflate, unless people destroy currency by burning it in the home furnace for heat like the Germans did.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-89099013224269395192016-11-19T22:21:24.654-05:002016-11-19T22:21:24.654-05:00No matter what happens it will be "Trump'...No matter what happens it will be "Trump's fault"....because he is hated by ALL the Dems and most of the GOP. These people would rather see the US collapse then allow him to be a success. Even Reagan who was well liked by most couldn't solve the problems of the economy. Because these problems were created and exist to make powerful people more wealthy and powerful. NO politician or legislative body has the power to contact her these people who actually run what is important. It's been this way since Jekyll Island <br />And the creation of the Federal Reserve. Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-76057279741415590842016-11-19T21:01:22.559-05:002016-11-19T21:01:22.559-05:00I can't tell if that's a question or just ...I can't tell if that's a question or just a criticism of the ideas, so pardon if I answer as if it's a question. The idea that we could be headed to a deflationary collapse is not unusual and certainly not mine, but it does involve asking the one question politicians never ask: "... and then what?" It requires thinking more than one move ahead, to use the chess analogy. <br /><br />There are a few things worth reading in the very first link in this piece, to my 2013 article with the same title. By all means read more economic commentators, and you'll encounter explanations. <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-28192481896394054212016-11-19T14:03:37.539-05:002016-11-19T14:03:37.539-05:00or it holds the line -- refusing further fiscal st...<i>or it holds the line -- refusing further fiscal stimulus -- and the result will be a deflationary disaster.</i><br /><br />Inflation means official counterfeiting to increase total number of dollars. Deflation means burning official fiat currency notes to decrease total number of dollars. Not inflating, refusing further fiscal stimulus, is not deflating, it is stable currency. Why is the middle being excluded? Why pretend it doesn't exist?<br /><br />Historically states always issue more fiat currency in a runaway chase to issue currency faster than the purchasing power of that currency declines. However, as Denninger says, the currency inflation occurs (but is not necessarily recognized by the public) at the moment the currency is issued. During hyperinflation the currency inflation news travels fast enough there is little time window for the government to spend it before it devalues.<br /><br />I don't know where the conclusion deflation might happen comes from, historically it doesn't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-81014175475861251172016-11-19T11:38:27.146-05:002016-11-19T11:38:27.146-05:00Supply and demand. If demand goes down, yield rat...Supply and demand. If demand goes down, yield rates go up and prices go down to attract buyers back. Bond buyers are loaning money to the issuer (in this case the US Treasury), so the treasury has to pay them more yield to be worth the trouble. <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-18753633808788873562016-11-19T11:19:07.425-05:002016-11-19T11:19:07.425-05:00Why does the price of a bond drop, as it's ret...Why does the price of a bond drop, as it's return increases? <br /><br />if a chicken lays three eggs a day, is it not more valuable than one that lays two eggs a day?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-65998176613225759812016-11-19T10:58:30.428-05:002016-11-19T10:58:30.428-05:00I would agree with you. Trump is not Reagan in th...I would agree with you. Trump is not Reagan in the sense that he is a businessman and is smart economic-wise. Reagan had common sense to a point but not the experience. As for the bet, "it is a bet that Mr. Trump will rotate from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus. Long term, we think it’s a good bet.", I think that is exactly what Trump has said all along and is moving towards already.<br /><br />And with the precedents set by Obozo with Executive Actions and "Pen & Phone" he can do a lot without dealing with the objections of the party out of power./sarcAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com