The Silicon Graybeard

The President's Lying About that Contraceptive Thing

2012-02-10T20:39:00.002-05:00

Well, either he's lying or he's stupid and doesn't understand the first things about business. In the ruling today, quoted from the White House Press fact sheet, he said,

Under the new policy to be announced today, women will have free preventive care that includes contraceptive services no matter where she [sic] works. The policy also ensures that if a woman works for a religious employer with objections to providing contraceptive services as part of its health plan, the religious employer will not be required to provide, pay for or refer for contraception coverage, but her insurance company will be required to directly offer her contraceptive care free of charge.

Two things here: the obvious one is that the religious employer will pay for the contraception coverage because they pay for the insurance. There Is No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. Requiring the insurance company to "directly offer her contraceptive care free of charge" doesn't come without costs, and I don't care that it's $5 a month, there's a real cost that goes into a real premium that the company really pays.

The second one is the president, or anyone in the Federal government has no right to tell the insurance company, the employer, or anyone else, what they must pay for. They have no right to order anyone to buy anything. Their "ruling" has just as much constitutional justification as if I came up to you and told you that you had to provide something.

TANSTAAFL

I Know When I've Been Beaten

2012-02-10T17:42:00.000-05:00

Go see In a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World for the ultimate in Madonna jokes.

Just sayin'...

Meanwhile, I have the Mother of All Stiff Necks today. Worst "crick in my neck" I've ever had. Typing hurts.

See ya.

Looked Like This To Me

2012-02-09T18:19:00.001-05:00

(Nate Beeler at TownHall.)

Unfortunately, I have to say Madonna is several years younger than I am...

Confidential to the current crop of entertainers: if you get asked to be the half time act at the Super Bowl, it pretty much means your career is over.

Why Hit the Catholics Now? Part II

2012-02-08T21:14:00.001-05:00

Perhaps it's best summed up by a story most of us have heard:

A scorpion and a frog meet on the bank of a stream and the scorpion asks the frog to carry him across on its back. The frog asks, "How do I know you won't sting me?" The scorpion says, "Because if I do, I will die too."

The frog is satisfied, and they set out, but in midstream,the scorpion stings the frog. The frog feels the onset of paralysis and starts to sink, knowing they both will drown,but has just enough time to gasp "Why?"

Replies the scorpion: "Its my nature..."

"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." - George Orwell

My Turn

2012-02-07T21:25:00.001-05:00

Today is my turn to be honored by one of my virtual friends, Quizikle, who tagged my blog today. The way this meme works is;

The Rules:

I've done #2 already, and Quizikle would have been one of my five. 200 followers is really a lot. Only a few that I visit have that many, and to be honest, I'm not a follower on anyone's blog so I'm not sure what that number really means. Seems like a reason to stick with folks with lower numbers of followers. Here's my list of some favorite reads, in no particular order:

Improved Clinch - John, the erudite submariner, a guy with some very interesting perspectives.
No Lawyers, Only Guns and Money - as you might gather, tends to track legal 2A issues the most.
Gun Free Zone - Miquel down the state in South Florida. I really admire Miquel because he goes after the crazy anti-gun folks relentlessly. It takes a lot of dedication.
American Mercenary - currently home, but just back from Afghanistan. Real insights to that area, and good instructive articles on defense and other tactics.
Borepatch - he has the most followers of these five, but I visit several times a day. Great security insights (he's a pro, after all), and historical insights on a wide variety of things. Not to mention the weekly country music.

I read a lot of blogs every now and then, but only a few every day. I have an acute time problem. Even a simple post like this is going over an hour to think about and put down.

New Little Sunday Afternoon Project

2012-02-06T21:19:00.000-05:00

My weekend woodworking project. Damascus steel with amboyna burl scales on the handles, brass rivet pins. 12 1/2 inches long. Wicked sharp. I didn't make the steel; the blade was my Christmas gift from the lovely Mrs. Graybeard. All I did was the woodworking. Not exactly New Yankee Workshop stuff...

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

2012-02-05T11:50:00.000-05:00

I was going to write about how the BLS (Bureau of Lies and Stupidity) cooks the unemployment numbers, but Peter, Bayou Renaissance Man beat me to it, with a long, excellent overview. Go read.

Friday afternoon, I got stuck in a waiting room with a TV tuned to CNBC, the perma-bull network. The market had been closed for half an hour, and the buzz was about how fantastic the numbers are: the market hasn't closed this high since (whenever). Here we have a network of financial commentators and they went for 20 minutes without once comparing the stated numbers corrected for inflation. Finally, one commenter said, "in a QE world, stocks will be going up" - in other words, the larger quantity of dollars created forces prices up. The term for that we use in flyover country isn't "in a QE world", it's inflation. If John Williams at Shadowstats is right and the year over year inflation is running around 11%, when measured how it originally was measured, that 12,862 closing on the DJIA would have been 11,587 - much less worthy of song.

The Coming Revolution in Micro Production

2012-02-04T23:28:00.000-05:00

H/T to Arctic Patriot in an email to me, pointing out this article on MIT's Technology Review e-zine: Why 3-D Printing Will Go the Way of Virtual Reality. The author has one good point:

But the notion that 3-D printing will on any reasonable time scale become a "mature" technology that can reproduce all the goods on which we rely is to engage in a complete denial of the complexities of modern manufacturing, and, more to the point, the challenges of working with matter.

A columnist on Tech Review does a good job of arguing against this viewpoint using regular printing as a model. In my view, it simply comes across as this year's version of the famous quote (attributed to IBM's president Thomas Watson), "The world will never need more than four or five computers". It's simply too myopic.

Stop for a second. Look around you. Everything you see that didn't grow out of the ground was made by someone. In the case of your computer, the molds have to be made to cast the plastic, which has to be made from chemical feed stocks. Metals have to be mined, refined, cast, and machined. The first articles of anything made of metal are made by the most advanced machinists, called tool and die makers. The next are manufactured on a model created by these folks. You don't have to look too far to see various things sold as better because they are "CNC Machined", but CNC (Computer Numerical Control of machining) doesn't assure anything other than lower amounts of scrap for the company that makes them and possibly a more consistent product

Machining is a subtractive process. You start with either a casting, which is shaped to minimize the machining operations, or from "billet"; metal plate, bars and sheets produced in standard sizes. Either way, you then "remove everything that doesn't look like" what you're trying to make: you subtract it from your starting piece. It's not unusual to remove more metal than remains in the part you created. In comparison 3D printing is an additive process. The two processes compliment each other, and there are things that can be made in the additive 3D printing process that can not be made by subtractive processes.

The first machines were called stereolithography, and made parts by shining a laser on fluid that polymerized into a plastic where the laser hit. A few thousandths of an inch below the top of the fluid was a platform that the plastic was formed on. The platform is lowered and layer by layer the object is created. The result was usually a thin, translucent, plastic shell model of your object.

from the 3D guys, a whimsical creation: a "frozen" splash on the table of an SLA machine.

More recent 3D Printing has become a dry process, or a drier process, as the current machines deposit layers of plastics that are fused together, or extrude thin streams of plastic. The big issue that has to be resolved for 3D printing to have an enormous impact is the materials they use, and progress is being made. Scientists have 3D printed implantable veins - almost two years ago. MIT has printed solar cells. Don't think that what comes out of the printer has to be the final item. For example, almost all mass produced jewelry and hundreds of precise ("jewel-like") mechanical items are made by lost-wax casting, where a wax mold is carved or molded, and then used as a master to cast a piece. The models that come off the 3D printer can be used in place of the wax and cast. There are service bureaus that will take your computer file of a 3D model of a piece of jewelry, 3D print a mold, and return a cast and polished piece of jewelry to you. The same lost wax casting technology is used by dentists and in many other places; these will also likely go to 3D printing.

Right now, with a hobbyist-level 3D printer, you could print things like plastic plates, forks, cups, and other pieces of the "cheap plastic consumer stuff" we buy in bulk (I have no idea how cost-effective that is, ignoring the cost of the printer). Industrial grade printers have been extremely widely adopted in manufacturing. As resolution and materials improve, the 3D printer will be more able to print things that the owner can assemble into an item they'll use around the house. 3D printing is already a billion dollar industry, and there's no reason to think it's going to fade and go away.

Why Hit the Catholics Now?

2012-02-03T23:07:00.000-05:00

This has been bothering me, in the "this just don't make sense" way. Why does the administration go after the Catholic church, one of the largest institutions in the country, in an election year when any conventional wisdom has to say they're on the ropes? Are they supremely confident, naively stupid, or maliciously evil? (It's possible to be any combination of all three!)

Back in '09 some Catholic groups were big supporters of Obamacare. They got their 30 pieces of silver in savings for Catholic hospitals and charities - fewer uninsured. They accepted taxpayer funding of abortions to get that silver. Now they're being ordered to provide contraception, another violation of church teachings. (Confidential: if you're a Catholic leader who advocated for this, while emulating Judas Iscariot goes a bit far, it's a good principle - the industrial equivalent is resigning).

I'm not Catholic and don't really understand their doctrines, Ann Barnhardt is a better source for that, but when the US government starts forcing their religion (a secular fundamentalism) on churches it gets my attention. The feds do everything short of calling in the SWAT teams and shooting dogs if some kid so much as sings Silent Night at a school function, but it's fine for them to shove their morality on people who are opposed to it? After observing this since Roe v Wade was passed, I've come to the conclusion abortion is sacred to the secular fundamentalist, perhaps their only sacrament. They have no higher goal than ensuring abortions for everyone - especially if they're paid for by people who find it morally reprehensible. Bookworm Room puts it this way:

Whether you support a woman’s right to have an abortion or not, surely anyone who is intellectually honest must see that it is morally wrong to make a religious institution fund it. To use an extreme analogy, this is the beginning of a continuum that ends with Jews being forced to dig their own mass burial pits before being lined upon along the edge of those pit and shot.

This is an assault on all religions, all faiths. I will stand with the Catholic church.

But, again, why now? Why in an election year? I can only offer some hypotheses. First is that they think the membership of the Catholic church doesn't care that the government is doing it; that the membership is much less doctrinal than their leadership. Second: they are so contemptuous of people of faith that they want to ruin them, and that means break down that faith. As a weaker example, Obama's campaign speech in the national prayer breakfast yesterday, where he tried to say that Jesus wants the rich to pay higher taxes, quoting a well known verse from Luke - 12:48 - and in a stunning two-fer, got both the economics and the theology wrong. A necessary conclusion from 2 is that they want to hurt the people of faith so badly, they don't care if it hurts their election chances. Approximately 22% of Americans self-identify as Catholic; does the administration think they can throw away the votes from half of them? A quarter? All of them?

Then and Now

2012-02-02T21:33:00.000-05:00

The fantastic Michael Ramirez at IBD and TownHall.

Let me just say that one of the worst sounds in the world is water running in your house's pipes when you know everything is turned off.

Google, Internet Privacy and Anonymizers

2012-02-01T21:36:00.000-05:00

Reference the new Google privacy policies...

If you want to search for things that you don't want associated with your ID, anonymizers will strip your IP address and make it much harder to track to you. For the moment, they are legal. A friend who's a software engineer wizard forwarded a link to Startpage. Startpage uses Google's search engine, but keeps you anonymous. They are upfront and honest about their privacy policies.

I'm not even slightly curmudgeonly about old technology; I definitely don't believe that older technologies are better because they're old, and I'm not afraid of new technologies. I take a skeptical view of the concept of the singularity, credited to Kurzweil or Vinge, when computer intelligence merges with human intelligence and the rate of increase in human ability goes exponential. It's not that I think it can't happen and not that I think it's a crazy idea, I just think it's too much like controlled fusion reactors. Controlled fusion has been "20 years away" for at least 40 years. These things have a habit of being much harder to do than the visionaries think.

That said, there are some fairly bright people who think Google is going too far, and use the term "Skynet" - as in Google is creating Skynet or will be Skynet by (2020, 2030, 2050, pick a number). I think it's worth paying attention to this with some portion of your brain. Shelly Palmer, who writes on technology for NBC/Universal puts it this way:

The sky is not falling and this is not a sensationalistic FUD-mongering exercise (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt). It is an admonition that the time has come for learned colleagues to start a Socratic discourse about what parts of the Genie need to stay in the bottle, and what parts can be let out. Imperfect metaphor? I don’t think so.

This is a very complex problem and we are going to need very simple ways to describe it. Skynet can’t win – at least not in the world I want to live in. Let’s get ahead of this while it’s still just the subject of the occasional rhetorical blog post – because, no matter what anyone tells you, the world of big data is never going away.

Anonymizers like Startpage are good for covering use of the the search engine part of Google. For those of us who use Blogger, it's not the complete answer. If we stayed logged into Blogger, it follows us to YouTube, follows us when we comment on each others' blogs, or other parts of the community. We're creating a digital shadow, a shadow that - unlike real life - lingers everywhere we go, forever.

Primary Day in Florida

2012-01-31T21:18:00.000-05:00

There's nothing like the smell of politicians in the morning...

The electronic counting is coming to completion, and I'm sure you're all hearing that Mittens has been declared the winner. You can rest assured I did not vote for him, but I'll leave that detail concealed.

As always, the lovely and wise Mrs. Graybeard and I have voted. In this case, I say wise because of this observation from years ago which I have quoted before:

Preparing for an election is like cleaning out the cat's litter box. It's a disgusting, revolting task that exposes you to all sorts of dirty, filthy things you'd rather never see, but if you don't do it, the job gets even more disgusting and revolting.

Long time visitors will note that I hardly ever talk about day to day politics and especially not party politics. This is why. The last couple of weeks have been brutal with negative ads. I know they use them because they say they work, but I wonder if that's an artifact of how they measure. I want a candidate to tell me why I should vote for them, not why I should vote against their opponent. Whenever possible, I will vote against the one whose negative ad I hear first. Newsflash: don't get your information on any candidate by listening to ads on the radio or TV. Do your own research in advance. Write it down if you have to, or save a local copy to your computer - in this age of editing the past. It's better to keep a low level of attention at all times, so you can - hopefully - have some knowledge of the candidates well before the big day.

Is it Immoral to Kill? - Bioethicists

2012-01-30T21:33:00.000-05:00

Dang, I got that punctuation all wrong - the question mark is in the wrong place. I should have written that as "Is it immoral to kill Bioethicists?"

An interesting story broke on Friday that I'm sure relates to the implementation of Obamacare. BioEdge, an online news source for Bioethics, reports on a paper "Is It Morally Wrong to Take A Life?" The actual article is on the Journal of Medical Ethics, but I can only show the abstract. BioEdge excerpts the journal article, though.

Is it morally wrong to kill people? Not really, argue two eminent American bioethicists in an early online article in the Journal of Medical Ethics. Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, of Duke University, and Franklin G. Miller, of the National Institutes of Health believe that “killing by itself is not morally wrong, although it is still morally wrong to cause total disability”.

Skipping ahead to the money quotes:

Rendering someone totally and permanently incapacitated is just as bad as taking a life, or so they contend. Killing totally disabled patients does them no harm.

“Then killing her cannot disrespect her autonomy, because she has no autonomy left. It also cannot be unfair to kill her if it does her no harm.”

Nor, they say, is life “sacred”. The only relevant difference between life and death is the existence of abilities – and a brain-damaged person no longer has these.

“[I]f killing were wrong just because it is causing death or the loss of life, then the same principle would apply with the same strength to pulling weeds out of a garden. If it is not immoral to weed a garden, then life as such cannot really be sacred, and killing as such cannot be morally wrong.”

What an interesting world medical ethicists live in if weeds and humans are equivalents! Folks, if you've heard the term "slippery slope" before but were never sure if you'd seen one, read that last couple of paragraphs again. That's a Teflon slope covered in grease.

Note that these are not "nobodies" that no one will listen to: this is from the National Institutes of Health and Duke University. Because they're unwilling to accept any historical standards of right and wrong, they feel free to define their own standards. This has happened before in history: the eugenics movement that culminated in the Nazi holocaust comes to mind, but Margaret Sanger's American eugenics movement that tried to sterilize and eliminate children from blacks, minorities and the disabled was cut from the same cloth, only a more modest cut. Her organization is, of course, known today as Planned Parenthood.

I'll bet the underlying reason for this is Obamacare, which is going to force the government to decide who gets what level of care. Sarah Palin famously talked about death panels that will decide who gets treatment and who dies. Under the Whole Lives system (link to pdf), which was developed by another group of bioethicists, the chances of you getting treatment for something are poor for babies and old people, peaking, instead, for young adults in the first half of their careers. The system was developed by a group including presidential advisor Rahm Emanuel's brother, Ezekiel, and is encoded in Obamacare.

As I wrote once before:

In this system, it's acceptable to let a 70 year old, die while giving care to a 25 year old, because their life is worth more to the collective - excuse me - worth more to society. To paraphrase their quote, "it's not discrimination to deny care to the 70 year old and give it to the 25 year old. Everyone who is now 70 was once 25 and the majority of those who are 25 now will be 70 some day". In other words, "we can screw you now because we didn't screw you earlier; and if we're not screwing you now, wait until you're 70 and then you'll really be screwed."

The implications are obvious: if a twenty-something needs a liver or kidney transplant and a suitable donor person below 10 or over 50 (judging by Emanuel's chart) is available, these ethics standards say go ahead and kill the kid or kill the grandma and get the working "unit" back to work so "it" can make money and pay taxes to the mighty Fed.gov hydra.

Notice that according to these ethicists, "The only relevant difference between life and death is the existence of abilities", and since anyone who refuses an outside, existing standard may set their own, I'd like to mimic them and set my own standards for ethicists:

I have a set of partial differential equations that need to be solved using the Method of Frobenius, could you do that for me? No? How about a set of three simultaneous ordinary differential equations in three unknowns: can you solve them for me? Don't have that ability? Maybe math isn't your strong suit. Can you run a lathe and turn a part to better than five tenths (.0005") accuracy? No? Can you run a fishing boat or set a trotline? Do you know how to analyze the stresses on a bridge? Can you grow a crop of vegetables? Build walls? Don't have many abilities, there, do you, skippy?

You may load one in the chamber, gentlemen. Using their own standards, the answer to tonight's question is apparently "no, it is not immoral to kill bioethicists".

My Five

2012-01-29T20:15:00.000-05:00

The latest meme is what five guns would you get if price were no object. While we've done this before, I think that one was more bounded by reality.

1. Barret M82A1 Yeah, I said last time that there isn't a range over 600 yards that in the state that I know of. But if price is no object, .50BMG semi auto? Don't even have to think twice.

2. Wilson Combat Classic 1911 This was in my list last time. Still love it.

3. A Palma Rifle. Here I'm not sure what to go for, but thousand yard shooting with .308 sounds like fun to me. I'm sure custom is the way to go, but I don't know who to go to. I'd try this Savage 18532 at least to get me started.

4. A full-auto Uzi SMG. Only shot one once, but it was fun.

5. A Winchester Model 1894, but not a new one - I'd like one as antique as possible, but I think it needs to be 30-30.

Let me confess some dumbness - I only became aware of Palma competitions a couple of months ago, when someone posted a link to Anette Wachter, the 30 Cal Gal, and I saw that extremely high-zoot rifle of hers. So I went and read up on it, and it sounds like a good hard challenge. Let's face it - if we wanted simple hobbies, we'd collect stamps, right? No stress, no chance of things blowing up in your face, no chance of someone else's ND punching a hole in you: just buy stamp, put in book.

Google's New Privacy Initiatives

2012-01-29T12:40:00.000-05:00

OK, fellow users of Blogger/Blogspot - which includes Gmail and Picassa by default, probably along with all the other Google services, what do you think of the new privacy policy they're mailing around?

Do you think they're trying to force us into their Google+ social network, or do you take the more paranoid view that they're trying to enable even more detailed tracking and monitoring of us? Or are they just being efficient and kind and helping us do things we didn't even know we wanted to do? The fact we can't opt out of it kinda makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. This is the only Google service I still use. Never use it for search. Never use it for maps. Never have gotten the Google Earth bug.

Years ago, 1999, Scott MacNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems famously said, "You have zero privacy, anyway. Get over it." (started a firestorm, that, but it might well have been prescient). You have all the privacy of the grains in a sandbox. No particular grain stands out above all the rest, and you don't notice them, but if anyone wants to put a particular grain under a microscope, they can learn everything they want to know about it. You don't have privacy, you have anonymity.

I know we're paranoid, but are we paranoid enough?

Users of surveillance drones and satellites will notice smoke coming from my backyard. Remote sensing units will swing into service to determine if another clandestine meth lab has started operating. Chemical sensors will sniff the trail and decide it's a mix of hickory, oak, charcoal, and pork butt. The sensors will not be disappointed; they can't feel emotions like that. They will simply move on to the next target.

Life on Planet Broke

2012-01-28T14:24:00.002-05:00

I wanted to comment on the SoTU address by the Hawaiian Kenyan, but I find it's hard to beat Mark Steyn at turning a phrase. Mark posts The State of our Union is Broke at National Review Online.

Had I been asked to deliver the State of the Union address, it would not have delayed your dinner plans:

“The State of our Union is broke, heading for bankrupt, and total collapse shortly thereafter. Thank you and goodnight! You’ve been a terrific crowd!”

Hey - I'll be here all week. Remember to tip your waitress! Go read.

It's amazing the whole Buffet Rule nonsense has been dredged back up, like the zombie that is, as if increasing taxes on the richest few people in America would matter as much as a fart in a mitten (to borrow a quote in a comment at Sipsey Street). I have this nasty habit of being grounded in reality, and while I've talked about this before, let's hit the bullet points.

The whole issue is pure hypocrisy, and Warren Buffet is stinking hypocrite himself. The real tax rate Buffet is paying is closer to 50% than the 15% the president quotes. That's from 35% when it was regular income and 15% as dividend earnings. Our tax code is written to encourage investing in businesses by taxing your capital gains at less than the ordinary income rate. Whether or not that's a good thing, and I believe it is, is completely independent of raising tax rates on millionaires and billionaires (where millionaire has been defined as earning more than $250,000).
The tax rate is different from the percentage of income you pay as tax due to our "progressive" tax system. The rates are a step function; for the first step of income, you pay a lower percentage tax than on the last dollars you earn. Over 97% of the population pays less than 12% of their gross in taxes. In fact, about 50% don't pay anything, and some make more in government benefits than they pay, leading to a decrease in lifestyle if they work harder and earn more.
If fed.gov took every penny of the combined wealth - not just their income - of the Forbes list of the Richest 400 in America and reduced them to paupers, you'd end up with $1.5 trillion, which is not quite enough to pay for one year of our deficit ($1.56T). (source)

But maybe for 2012 a whole new Forbes 400 of Saudi princes and Russian oligarchs will emigrate to the Hamptons and Malibu and keep the whole class-warfare thing going for a couple more years

If fed.gov took every single penny of income from everyone who earns over $10 Million per year, you'd get $240 billion - enough to run the government for 18 days. If they took every penny of income from everyone with an income of over $250,000, the money would be gone in under 200 days. It wouldn't pay for the current spending programs for a year, let alone add all the programs they want. For a refresher, watch Bill Whittle's excellent video.

Or, as I've said many times, It's The Spending Stupid! We can not and will not get out of this mess until spending is scaled back to being supportable with tax revenue, which is historically around 18% of GDP. It really needs to be scaled back closer to 15%, and we need to run surpluses as far as the eye can see.

As I've done before, I like Steyn's conclusion so much, I'll use it here. (I did say to RTWT)

There are times for dreaming big dreams, and there are times to wake up. This country will not be going to the moon, any more than the British or French do. Because, in decline, the horizons shrivel. The only thing that’s going to be on the moon is the debt ceiling. Before we can make any more giant leaps for mankind, we have to make one small, dull, prosaic, earthbound step here at home — and stop. Stop the massive expansion of micro-regulatory government, and then reverse it. Obama has vowed to press on. If Romney and Gingrich can’t get serious about it, he’ll get his way.

Across the Universe

2012-01-27T20:43:00.002-05:00

Not this version.

I stumbled across an interesting piece of legalese yesterday, that apparently has been making its way into all sorts of places. I have the Weather Channel app on my iPhone, and have been using it for over 2 years. There was an update the other day, I installed it on Wednesday night, and promptly forgot it. Turned it on yesterday and was greeted by a new EULA, a Terms of Use and Privacy Policy that you must agree to before you can see the forecast. Admittedly unusual for me, I started reading it a little ways, and was soon floored by the amount of legalese there was. I swear there must be well over a hundred iPhone screens of text to read. But one thing jumped out at me. Regarding using their "services", anything you post:

... will be treated as non-confidential and non-proprietary and will become the property of TWC throughout the universe. (emphasis added)

Throughout the universe? I pointed this out to the ever curious and master of Google-fu Mrs. Graybeard and after some amazement and puzzling over the wording, she soon showed me it's been going on for a while. In fact, they often say "throughout the universe in perpetuity".

Experts in contract drafting say lawyers are trying to ensure that with the proliferation of new outlets -- including mobile-phone screens, Twitter, online video sites and the like -- they cover all possible venues from which their clients can derive income, even those in outer space.

All I can say is: across the entire universe? Did anyone get Klingon Chancellor Gowron's opinion on that?

Yo, Weather Channel! You hear me? What's next? A 600 page EULA to watch you on TV?

A Little Techie History

2012-01-26T18:20:00.000-05:00

A friend passed this on to me, and I think it's a fun read - particularly if you don't know anything about the history of radio.

CAR TUNES

Radios are so much a part of the driving experience, it seems like cars have always had them. But they didn’t. Here’s the story.

SUNDOWN
One evening in 1929 two young men named William Lear and Elmer Wavering drove their girlfriends to a lookout point high above the Mississippi River town of Quincy, Illinois, to watch the sunset. It was a romantic night to be sure, but one of the women observed that it would be even nicer if they could listen to music in the car.

Lear and Wavering liked the idea. Both men had tinkered with radios – Lear had served as a radio operator in the U. S. Navy during World War I – and it wasn’t long before they were taking apart a home radio and trying to get it to work in a car. But it wasn’t as easy as it sounds: automobiles have ignition switches, generators, spark plugs, and other electrical equipment that generate noisy static interference, making it nearly impossible to listen to the radio when the engine was running.

SIGNING ON
One by one, Lear and Wavering identified and eliminated each source of electrical interference. When they finally got their radio to work, they took it to a radio convention in Chicago. There they met Paul Galvin, owner of Galvin Manufacturing Corporation. He made a product called a “battery eliminator” a device that allowed battery-powered radios to run on household AC current. But as more homes were wired for electricity, more radio manufacturers made AC-powered radios. Galvin needed a new product to manufacture. When he met Lear and Wavering at the radio convention, he found it. He believed that mass-produced, affordable car radios had the potential to become a huge business.

Lear and Wavering set up shop in Galvin’s factory, and when they perfected their first radio, they installed it in his Studebaker. Then Galvin went to a local banker to apply for a loan. Thinking it might sweeten the deal, he had his men install a radio in the banker’s Packard. Good idea, but it didn’t work – half an hour after the installation, the banker’s Packard caught on fire. (They didn’t get the loan.)

Galvin didn’t give up. He drove his Studebaker nearly 800 miles to Atlantic City to show off the radio at the 1930 Radio Manufacturers Association convention. Too broke to afford a booth, he parked the car outside the convention hall and cranked up the radio so that passing conventioneers could hear it. That idea worked – he got enough orders to put the radio into production.

WHAT’S IN A NAME
That first production model was called the 5T71. Galvin decided he needed to come up with something a little catchier. In those days many companies in the phonograph and radio businesses used the suffix “ola” for their names – Radiola, Columbiola, and Victrola were three of the biggest. Galvin decided to do the same thing, and since his radio was intended for use in a motor vehicle, he decided to call it the Motorola.

But even with the name change, the radio still had problems:
A: When Motorola went on sale in 1930, it cost about $110 uninstalled, at a time when you could buy a brand-new car for $650, and the country was sliding into the Great Depression. (By that measure, a radio for a new car would cost about $3,000 today.)

B: In 1930 it took two men several days to put in a car radio – the dashboard had to be taken apart so that the receiver and a single speaker could be installed, and the ceiling had to be cut open to install the antenna. These early radios ran on their own batteries, not on the car battery, so holes had to be cut into the floorboard to accommodate them. The installation manual had eight complete diagrams and 28 pages of instructions.

HIT THE ROAD
Selling complicated car radios that cost 20 percent of the price of a brand-new car wouldn’t have been easy in the best of times, let alone during the Great Depression – Galvin lost money in 1930 and struggled for a couple of years after that. But things picked up in 1933 when Ford began offering Motorolas pre-installed at the factory. In 1934 they got another boost when Galvin struck a deal with B. F. Goodrich tire company to sell and install them in its chain of tire stores. By then the price of the radio, installation included, had dropped to $55. The Motorola car radio was off and running. (The name of the company would be officially changed from Galvin Manufacturing to “Motorola” in 1947.)

In the meantime, Galvin continued to develop new uses for car radios. In 1936, the same year that it introduced push-button tuning, it also introduced the Motorola Police Cruiser, a standard car radio that was factory preset to a single frequency to pick up police broadcasts. In 1940 he developed the first handheld two-way radio – the Handie-Talkie – for the U. S. Army.

A lot of the communications technologies that we take for granted today were born in Motorola labs in the years that followed World War II. In 1947 they came out with the first television to sell under $200. In 1956 the company introduced the world’s first pager; in 1969 it supplied the radio and television equipment that was used to televise Neil Armstrong’s first steps on the Moon. In 1973 it invented the world’s first handheld cellular phone. Today Motorola is the second-largest cell phone manufacturer in the world.

And it all started with the car radio.

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO….

The two men who installed the first radio in Paul Galvin’s car, Elmer Wavering and William Lear, ended up taking very different paths in life. Wavering stayed with Motorola. In the 1950’s he helped change the automobile experience again when he developed the first automotive alternator, replacing inefficient and unreliable generators. The invention lead to such luxuries as power windows, power seats, and, eventually, air-conditioning.

Lear also continued inventing. He holds more than 150 patents. Remember eight-track tape players? Lear invented that. But what he’s really famous for are his contributions to the field of aviation. He invented radio direction finders for planes, aided in the invention of the autopilot, designed the first fully automatic aircraft landing system, and in 1963 introduced his most famous invention of all, the Lear Jet; the world’s first mass-produced, affordable business jet. (Not bad for a guy who dropped out of school after the eighth grade.)

Edit 18222 EST: Dat ole typo generator that puts them in after I hit "Publish"

The Manufacturing Sector in the US. - Far From Dead

2012-01-25T22:07:00.000-05:00

H/T to Bayou Renaissance Man for a link to an interesting piece in the Atlantic on manufacturing in America today. It's a long and complex piece on a complex subject, but it's worthwhile to RTWT. The story focuses on a company in South Carolina which manufactures fuel injectors and other complex, precise parts for the auto industry. We hobbyist machinists are never under time pressure in our projects; if anything, we shape metal to get away from thinking of those time pressures. In manufacturing, time is money and getting the job done right with minimal waste, then doing it better the next time, is the mantra.

I came to think of Standard Motor Products as an enormous machine that regularly scans every tiny part of every engine in every car on the streets of the United States to answer two closely related questions: What makes sense to manufacture here in the U.S., and what should be made in a low-wage country, like Mexico or China?

I've worked in electronics manufacturing for virtually my entire adult life; first as an electronics technician, and eventually as an engineer. If there's one constant, it's the refinement of processes to run more automatically and require fewer but higher-level people. (I suppose the other constant since 1975 has been people telling me we don't manufacture anything in America anymore). I see the same trend in the Atlantic piece.

If an engineer from 1975 had been put in suspended animation and brought back today, they could look in today's typical electronics box, like an iPod, or other toy, and not recognize a thing. There are some parts that haven't changed much, because the physics that rules them is so unforgiving that no better ways have been found, but it wouldn't be obvious for most uses. The size of components has shrunk dramatically and inexorably, such that most of them no longer have lead wires attached to them, but rather are tiny pieces that appear to be ceramic flakes (a part smaller than a red pepper seed, .040" long by .020" wide, is not considered small today). These tiny ceramic chips have metal plated onto their ends which are soldered to a circuit board. The only practical way to handle and solder parts like this in volume is with machinery, removing many of the semi-skilled workers in the work flow.

The National Association of Manufacturers says the US is the largest manufacturing sector in the world, with China number 2 and Japan at 3. Even if you swap the US and China, the manufacturing sector still produces a lot in this country. Kevin at The Smallest Minority ran a piece on Sunday about the manufacturing of iPhones. It focused on a New York Times piece that basically said the iPhone is made in China because it couldn't be made anywhere else; every part is made in a city less than 25 miles across. It feeds the illusion that it couldn't be made here because no such places exist in the US. I call bull crap on that. Too much is made of the wage differences between here and China or India and not enough is made about our advantages in high-tech. In the Atlantic piece the Standard managers are saying they won't go to China unless they save about 40% in the cost of the part, to cover the indirect costs, I'm sure.

I would argue the US' biggest problems are not our wage structures, but our regulatory and tax structures (link is to a pdf). As always, government is the problem. Our corporate tax rates are punitive - either the worst or second worst in the world (everybody, all together, corporations don't pay tax, they raise their price to collect the tax - or they get out of the country). Our regulatory processes have been made up as make work programs for lawyers and they look it. Still, while we may not manufacture ten million of this years' hot computer toy, we produce billions of dollars worth of industrial and other products. The NAM says that taken by itself, US manufacturing would be the 9th largest economy in the world.

I vaguely remember a Joe Biden quote that struck me with such force, it almost knocked me over. If Joe gets it through that titanium skull of his, anyone should get it. Over a decade ago, I believe, he said, "we have to be careful that if we really want to create jobs, we can't be too anti-business in our message".

1000 Days

2012-01-24T21:39:00.002-05:00

Today marks 1000 days - almost 3 years - since the United States Senate performed one of their basic constitutionally mandated tasks and submitted a budget. The last budget they passed was on April 29, 2009. Instead, they have worked by continuing resolutions and funding embedded in 1000 page bills - funding that is unrelated to anything actually being legislated. I don't need to, but will remind readers the Senate has been under the control of the Evil party since the 2006 elections. The stupid party controls only the House of Representatives, and only since 2010.

Wanna bet that gets mentioned in the SoTU?

Harry Reid (D. Uranus) is said to think preparing a budget is "a foolish idea" - in my opinion it's because he doesn't want to put all the stupid or corrupt spending in one easy-to-read place. Not enough camouflage - no place to hide. Investor's Business Daily puts it this way:

A published budget would be an election-year death warrant for Senate Democrats, because Republican Senate candidates would stuff its highlights into every mailbox they could.

On a related note, you probably noticed a few weeks ago that the president has asked for the debt ceiling to be raised by another $1.2 trillion, again. If you're keeping score, that will raise the "on books" debt to $16.4 trillion dollars or approximately 108% of GDP. The House has voted against this, but it's purely symbolic and the ~~death spiral~~, debt ceiling is expected to be raised this weekend. They agreed to not stage a real revolt over the debt ceiling the last time we went through this. We don't call them the Stupid and Evil parties for nothing, you know.

I am no fan of Speaker of the House John Boehner, but I will give credit where due. I wandered into a room with a TV on Sunday and caught a few seconds of an interview between Boehner and host Chris Wallace. Chris was trying to press Boehner on the "do nothing congress" platform that Obama is running on. Wallace said in the current session they had only passed 80 laws and 20 of them were naming post offices or other meaningless things, so didn't this prove Obama right? Boehner asked incredulously, "The number of laws we pass is a measure of how good a congress we are?". Wallace sheepishly replied, "it's a measure", to which Boehner said, "Most people think we have way too many laws and think we shouldn't keep passing more". I was surprised, but credit where credit is due.

And, as of a few hours ago, it was still impossible to confirm the rumor that India and Iran have agreed to allow the sale of Iranian oil to be paid in gold, however that site observes that India doesn't have enough gold reserves to do that for long. The megatrend of the dollar slowly dying is undeniable, though. The BRIC countries developing their own basket of currencies or trading in their native currencies will only help bring on the death of the dollar.

Listen closely. Hear that sound? That's the death rattle of the dollar.

Separated at birth? Maybe Senator blob fish would publish a budget.

Exclusive Preview: Obama's Fourth SoTU Address

2012-01-23T21:21:00.000-05:00

Actually, I was going to write a satire about this, but have had too much to do tonight. Instead, I'll link to this excellent piece by Joseph Curl in the Washington Times: The Truly Dismal State of the Union. A taste:

There is one person — one American among the 300 million of us — who is not to blame for the state of the union. Everyone else, each of you, in some small or large way, bears some share of the blame, but not this guy. Not one little bit.

This guy is Barack Obama. He is not the least bit to blame for the dismal state of the U.S. economy. George W. Bush is, for sure, and that evil Dick Cheney, oh, no doubt...

Word.

$15 trillion dollars in stacked pallets of $100 bills - from two months ago when our "on the books" national debt reached 100% of GDP. For perspective, it took from the foundation of the USA until the last year of the George W Bush administration for the debt to reach $10 Trillion. In roughly 3 1/2 years, debt has increased by $5 trillion - 50%. At the current rates, on this date in 2015, just three years, the debt will be over $24 trillion an increase of $12 trillion - 60% from today's mind-boggling debt (from the DebtClock's Time Machine feature).

Moving Goalposts

2012-01-22T21:50:00.002-05:00

Remember the old Bugs Bunny cartoon where he dared Yosemite Sam to "step across this line". No wait, step across this line. No, step across this line. And eventually led Sam off a cliff?

Don't know if you remember, but on November 27th, the Financial Times wrote that the Eurozone had 10 days left. Then the big date was December 19th. Lately I've been hearing the next big day is March 20th.

March 20th is a key date to keep your eye on. That is the day when Greece will either make its 14.5 billion euro bond payment or it will default.

Greece does not have a prayer of making that payment without help. If Greece can convince the EU and the IMF to release the next scheduled bailout payment and if Greece can reach a satisfactory deal with private bondholders, then the coming Greek default might be "orderly". But if something goes wrong, the coming Greek default might be quite "disorderly".

At this point, almost everyone in the financial world is anticipating a Greek default of one form or another...

If financial experts like the editor at FT get things wrong, you can bet amateurs like me aren't likely to be better. The important point is that last sentence, that almost everyone in the financial world believes Greece is going to default. A Greek default should chill you to your core because from there, the whole EU is likely to unravel. If the EU and ECB give a deal to Greece, how can they not give it to Italy, Spain, Portugal and the rest. But an insane deal is the only way Greece stays out of default.

The EU is pretty much in recession now, and Gerald Celente points out the signs are worse if you just look..

“If you live in Greece, you’re in a depression; if you live in Spain, you’re in a depression; if you live in Portugal or Ireland, you’re in a depression,” Celente said. “If you live in Lithuania, you’re running to the bank to get your money out of the bank as the bank runs go on. It’s a depression. Hungary, there’s a depression, and much of Eastern Europe, Romania, Bulgaria. And there are a lot of depressions going on [already].”

I've seen talk of the ECB monetizing (making up out of thin air) as much as a trillion Euros (about $1.25 trillion) to try and keep these countries afloat. Then there's talk of another round of QE. All of this will combine to make dollars worth less and less. It's a story we've told many times before.

The Economic Collapse Blog lists Warning Signs That We Should be Preparing For the Worst. You should read it.

Don't stop your preparations. The extra 90 days over the 9 in that FT article are bonus days. Use them wisely.

A Whole Lot of Fracking Going On

2012-01-21T22:11:00.000-05:00

Fracturing shale with hydraulic pressure and solvents - otherwise known as fracking - is the new battleground between the environmentalists and our society. The now-widely reported massive increase in natural gas and oil reserves in the US largely depend on the new fracking technology. Fracking itself isn't a new idea - but refinements in the last decade or so (along with the increase in oil prices) have made it a more viable technique for getting at American energy reserves.

In a move reminiscent of how the movie "An Inconvenient Truth" - a movie which the Science and Public Policy Institute scored 35 errors in facts before the opening credits were over - scared throngs of kids about the dangers of Man-made Global Warming, a group of activists have made a documentary called GasLand to try to stop energy exploitation.

John Ransom reports in Townhall.com that the British science publication "New Scientist" has examined the case they make and concluded the science just doesn't back them up. To quote from New Scientist:

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, involves pumping water, sand and chemicals into methane-rich shale deposits around 2 kilometres underground to liberate natural gas. It has been accused of contaminating drinking water with methane and chemicals, and causing minor earthquakes.

They conclude that there is not much actual peer-reviewed geological research on the topic, but what little there is says it's highly unlikely to cause methane in drinking water. It's a matter of how deep the fracking is taking place as opposed to the water well depth and the impermeability of the rock between them.

Underground deposits of drinking water often contain methane anyway, and there is little reason to believe that gas liberated by fracking 2 to 3 kilometres beneath the surface could work its way up into drinking water deposits that are usually less than 50 metres deep. The same is true for fracking chemicals.

What about the earthquakes? Well, here, the case is stronger that fracking could be the cause:

Fracking does cause minor earthquakes, but these "fraques" are comparable in size to the frequent minor quakes caused by coal mining. What's more, they originate much deeper in the crust so have all but dissipated by the time they reach the surface.

Earthquakes are not only caused by sliding along fault lines, like the famous big name faults, but also by the earth settling around voids; voids that could be created by pumping out water, as well as oil, or (as they point out) by coal mining or hard rock mining. Similarly, putting up a dam and allowing the reservoir to fill could cause settling of the land under the water, creating a quake.

George Will said,

Because progressivism exists to justify a few people bossing around most people and because progressives believe that only government’s energy should flow unimpeded, they crave energy scarcities as an excuse for rationing — by them — that produces ever-more-minute government supervision of Americans’ behavior.

There are environmentalists who really care about preserving the environment, there are those who are opposed to any new technology or energy use at all, and there are the progressive environmentalists who really want to bring the earth's population back down to a few hundred million - which would require killing off around 95% of the people on earth. For the rest of the US, we enjoy the benefits of the oil and natural gas. Not only the obvious ability to get around in our cars and have electrical appliances, but the many chemical products and drugs that natural gas is a feed stock for. Petroleum is modern life.

I say frack here, frack now.

Friday Night Odds and Ends

2012-01-20T21:42:00.000-05:00

Remember this post - a link to Popehat on how "'using stored information to create physical items' in 17-aught-mumble and 20-aught-mumble" inevitably leads to home made guns in the 21st century?

Conversations this week have led me down some of those pathways again this week, and I stumbled across a description of an AR-15 lower receiver made from HDPE. If that doesn't ring a bell right away, HDPE is high density polyethylene, a plastic commonly used in stuff like kitchen cutting boards! (the link, btw, was posted by our ex-communicated buddy TJIC...) as published on that link:

This has been test fired and worked, but think of it as Beta level; he needed a bunch of playing to make it work. The point is, this is a fully functional AR with the lower receiver body made out of - basically - a kitchen cutting board (I don't have enough exclamation points, so I won't use any).

Do you need more justification to have a home shop?

I see the fed.gov decided to allow the importation of 86,000 M1 Garands from South Korea!. This is a Really Good Thing. (Let me tell you about my Garand children)

We've talked about getting started with machine tools before, (in many places, really) and I've commented on the big gap between a model maker's size tools like the Sherline or Taig and the big tools. I've been looking into replacing my manual Sherline with a bigger lathe, and the next obvious step up is to the "7 by" lathes that all the tool companies sell. The problem is you quickly get into the "if you spend just a little more you get so much more capability" trap, and you end up with something that costs marginally more, but weighs way more.

A good example is this lathe, which is a really good machine by everything I can determine. The problem is that it comes with no tooling and by the time I add a reasonable set of accessories, I end up at about $11-1200 out of pocket, maybe more. For 50-$100 less, I can get this lathe delivered to my door, along with a good set of tooling. And a bonus box full of hernias. The first one weighs 86 pounds, and is a weight I think I can reasonably handle. The Griz weighs about 250 - a bit much for one man lift. On the other hand the Griz will handle a much larger work piece, 9" in diameter over the bed, instead of 7". Both of them have much more motor power than the Sherline, and the smaller motor of the two (2/3 HP vs. 3/4) may be better because it's a DC motor with infinite speed control, instead of just a handful of set speeds.

Then there's the performance gap: as I think I've said, at a meeting of the North American Model Engineers Society (NAMES) I saw a fantastic modeler, Jerry Keiffer, pull a stock Sherline lathe out of the box, chuck up a 1/2" diameter by about 1" long steel rod, and cut it down to .010" diameter in 5 cuts. And then drill a .005" hole down the center of that .010" nub. You won't do anything with one of these right out of the box except disassemble them and clean them of the goop they are coated with for the journey from overseas (usually China). They probably won't do that sort of accuracy without some extreme tweaking - if ever. On the other hand, it will handle interrupted cuts and other machining tasks that would stall the Sherline - if not shake it apart.

Decisions, decisions, decisions....

SOPA/PIPA and The Netwar Begins

2012-01-19T22:05:00.000-05:00

Today, a full-fledged Netwar appears to have started between the US fed.gov and hacker groups led by "anonymous" - or someone who wants us to think that's who they are.

It started when the DOJ hit MegaUpload and apparently shut them down, with no due process of any kind. At this time, the DOJ (http://www.justice.gov/) seems to be under a DOS (Denial of Service) attack and is unreachable. According to Gizomodo, the RIAA, MPAA, and Univeral Music are all currently shutdown under attack, too - as well as the FBI and recording label EMI. The sites under attack are winking in and out, as the waves of attacks break.

According to the Guardian (UK)

The US government has closed down one of the world's largest filesharing websites, accusing its founders of racketeering, money laundering and presiding over "massive" online piracy.

According to prosecutors, Megaupload illegally cheated copyright holders out of $500m in revenue as part of a criminal enterprise spanning five years.

Which brings us back to SOPA/PIPA. Borepatch did a great exposure of a security problem with the proposed laws, I want to talk about the philosophical problem.

It is simply this: the $500 million dollars in damages the fed.gov alleges is complete BS. No one can possibly know how much financial damage "stealing" any file caused the copyright owner. The logical fallacy that every copy is a lost sale goes back over a century, before recording existed, when the equivalent of the RIAA or ASCAP was busting the kneecaps of people who copied sheet music, and it's no more true today. The examples are trivially easy to construct. Has anyone ever given you an album that you might listen to, but don't like enough to buy? If that's an MP3 file of the audio, to the RIAA you've deprived them of sales when, in reality, you never would have spent the money for it.

To say every downloaded song is a $10 or $15 CD sale that wasn't made completely ignores the pricing power of the market. Perhaps you would buy it at $5 or $1, but just don't think it's worth what they charge for it. The same goes for movies or any other form of entertainment; it's just not true that everyone who will watch a pirated DVD would have bought the official version.

In the case of software, can you honestly argue that every person who uses a broken copy of a truly expensive program would have bought it? In engineering, I've known people who used broken copies of ~$30,000/seat design programs at home - big name CAD programs are typical. If it wasn't available as cracked software, they simply wouldn't get the work done (or they'd do it at work, after hours, or in some other way). They used that software just because it was available, and the purchase price is orders of magnitude beyond what a home user or hobbyist could pay. And I have personally seen situations where the use of "stolen" software resulted in the employee convincing the company to buy the program - a case where stolen software caused a sale; it didn't deny one.

You see, the folks behind SOPA/PIPA are terrified of the technology. If I give you a CD and you don't listen to it, it's just one, but if I make digital copies to post, I can make an unlimited number of them and the last copy is as good as the first. They are terrified that they will put content up for sale, and no one will buy. Individual artists are doing well selling songs directly, and avoiding the record label's control. The companies are terrified that they will lose power and become irrelevant.

(source)

SOPA Strike

2012-01-17T21:17:00.000-05:00

You've probably heard of the Internet Strike over SOPA/PIPA bills currently in the Senate/Congress respectively. H/T to Bayou Renaissance Man for pointing this out before I started hearing about it on other channels.

SOPA is short for Stop Online Piracy Act while PIPA is the Protect Intellectual Property Act, and together they have the backing of a lot of very well-funded groups. The big problem is that, as written, you commit a crime by linking to any site that links to another site doing something illegal. If you have a web page or blog, you could link to someone's page not knowing that somewhere else on their page, they link to someone who has posted something that a third party claims to own, and suddenly you've committed a crime. You didn't link to the pirated movie or other material, you linked to someone for an unrelated reason, yet you are now a criminal. A perfect example of the current trend to not use the age-old concept of "mens rea" - it's not a crime unless you know you were doing something wrong.

Killing the practice of hot-linking to each other will kill the web as we know it.

I guess that technically, this means I'm striking for two days, since I'm writing about this today, and going dark tomorrow.

And since you won't be able to read Boing Boing's statement of support while they've gone black, let me quote some of it - it's excellent. And, chances are, this (most of this) is all we're ever likely to agree on.

This is the part of the post where I'm supposed to say somethingreasonable like, "Everyone agrees that piracy is wrong, but this isthe wrong way to fight it."

But you know what? Screw that.

Even though a substantial portion of my living comes from theentertainment industry, I don't think that any amount of"piracy" justifies this kind of depraved indifference to theconsequences of one's actions. Big Content haven't just declared waron Boing Boing and Reddit and the rest of the "fun" Internet: they'vedeclared war on every person who uses the net to publicize policebrutality, every oppressed person in the Arab Spring who usedthe net to organize protests and publicize the blood spilled by theiroppressors, every abusedkid who used the net to reveal her father as a brutalizer ofchildren, every gay kid who used the net to discover that lifeis worth living despite the torment she's experiencing, every grassroots politicalcampaigner who uses the net to make her community a better place-- as well as the scientists who collaborate online, the rescueworkers who coordinate online, the makers who trade tips online, thepeople with rare diseases who support each other online, and theindependent creators who use the Internet to earn their livings.

The contempt for human rights on display with SOPA and PIPA is morethan foolish. Foolishness can be excused. It's more than greed. Greedis only to be expected. It is evil, and it must be fought.

Something Completely Different

2012-01-16T21:08:00.000-05:00

The topic of health and fitness comes up now and then in the III blogs. I stumbled across this video while ping-ponging around the net over lunch today. I found it pretty amazing, and worth the roughly 18 minutes to watch.

What if you tried to feed the world, to keep from millions from starving, and invented (hybridized or bred) a plant that succeeded. It actually fed millions, allowed them to live, let them grow up and have children, gave them a better quality of life. Imagine a custom hybrid grain, a grass, really, bred not to grow into "amber waves of grain", but short, stubby stalks with club-like seed heads (why waste all that energy making tall stems when the energy could go into the seeds - the grain). And what if that plant, something that was never before in history in our diet, caused chronic diseases in much of the population, and wouldn't keep those people healthy? It would allow them to survive to breeding age before coming down with these illnesses and dying a young death. There are many who think that describes modern wheat.

That population would have to change radically to survive as hunter-gatherers. It would probably end up a much smaller population.

Double Header: CES and SHOT

2012-01-15T13:50:00.000-05:00

This past week was the Consumer Electronics Show, in Las Vegas. This is an annual industry event and while I've never had a job in consumer electronics, I always pay attention to what's going on. This week brings the SHOT show, also in Vegas, the annual new toy celebration of the Shooting Hunting Outdoor Trade show

Why do I bring up both CES and the SHOT show in the same breath? Miquel over at Gunfree Zone has a great article on a little controversy over SHOT. I'm sure you know that SHOT is only open to mainstream sports journalists.

So what is the buzz this year? A New version of the Taurus Judge? Ruger’s Cooper Scout Carbine? Some newfangled piston AR in 300 Blackout? Coonan’s 1911 in .357 magnum? Nope. Actually it's one person: Paul Helinski of GunsAmerica.

Mr. Helinski disapproves that Gun Bloggers should attend the Shooting Hunting and Outdoor trade show. Apparently Gun Blooggers are icky, smell bad and are not “official” media according to him as he posted in the SHOT Show Blog:

Mr. Helinski goes on to say:

Now the question is when you are going to start qualifying internet media? We have to crawl over nobodies who can install wordpress and have nobody reading anything they write,It isn’t so hard to qualify internet media using Alexa.com and Compete.com. Why do you waste the manufacturers’ time and make the real internet media have to deal with wish I were internet journalists who are just using your stamp of approve to solicit review guns and accessories? You’ve created this giant gorilla in the room and we all have to deal with it, and you may think the industry takes your numbers seriously, but everyone sees things for what they are. If you are serious about bringing value to your exhibitors, you need to vet the press list.

To begin with, aside from punctuation that makes my eyes bleed, this is wrong. Alexa measures visits by people who use the Alexa toolbar, not all visitors. (BTW, I'm number 219,130 in the US - I try harder) I don't think either one of those sites is actually measuring traffic. More importantly, Helinski is bucking the biggest trend in the world today.

In the early days of radio and TV, the word was broadcasting: putting out a signal to as wide an area and group as you could. You know this today as basically ABC/CBS/NBC. In the "cable age" came Narrowcasting (the term is from J. C. R. Licklider, in 1967, and was quite visionary at the time). Think of the Outdoor Channel, the Sportsman's Channel, the World Fishing Network, and the dozens of other channels on a cable or satellite system. These are channels that can get by with a tiny fraction of the audience that the big 3 networks require to maintain a show on the air.

Today, the term is unicasting and think of things like Pandora, I Heart Radio, or the monster social networking sites, where the user defines their own experience instead of some anointed one defining it for them. If you care to watch this video, you'll see a spokesperson for Pandora drop the term unicasting at about the 1:09 mark (I found several things she said there quite interesting). Unicasting - the ability for each and every user to customize the experience for themselves is the biggest trend today. This is why the big newspapers, the big three network newscasts, and the rest of the dinosaur media is dying.

The gun blogs are in exactly that unicasting space. If you want an honest review of virtually anything, do you go to a magazine or a friend? The gun magazines - and all specialized hobby magazines - are faced with the very real conflict that the folks who keep them in business by advertising are providing products for review. It's not quite like going to a Ford dealer for a review of a Ford, but you are going to someone whose life depends on Ford. Their bread is buttered by the folks they're reviewing.

There are gun bloggers among us who do so because they want to become gun magazine writers and maybe be able to go to SHOT. Fine. Likewise, the NSSF is perfectly reasonable in trying to present a highly influential group to their exhibitors at SHOT; after all, they're charging them to come to the expo and it would be silly to just throw the doors wide open to anyone who posts about guns now and then. The problem is that the whole structure might be artificial and on the verge of collapsing. I don't know how to quantify this, but I bet some people like Tam or Kevin, Say Uncle, Sebastian or Oleg, have a bigger audience than some of the "influential" people in the crowd at SHOT.

How Do You Kill 10 Million People?

2012-01-13T21:47:00.000-05:00

About a week ago, I mentioned Andy Andrews book, "How Do You Kill 10 Million People?" in passing. I had seen Andrews on the Glenn Beck program (on Beck's internet-based network, GBTV.com) I honestly don't know if this will work, but if you see a free video here, watch it. I can't recommend this strongly enough.

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Andrews' book kind of got into my brain, and like a spot on your tooth that you have to feel with your tongue, or a piece of gravel in your shoe that you need to keep poking at, it just made me keep coming back to think about this. I bet that his answer will resonate with my readers who haven't heard it.

How do you kill 10 million people? The trains to the prison camps would have thousands of prisoners and only a couple of guards. In the towns where they would hold their victims, walled off from the outside, less than 15 armed men would go into a group and read a speech full of lies to, perhaps, a thousand men, and there was never a revolt. Surely, if they had revolted as a human wave, some would have been killed, but they would have eventually overpowered the guards. How did they get those people to be so compliant?

Step back from the ghettos to the larger society. The Nazi party never contained more than 10% of the population of the country: how does 10% rule the larger portion? The population could have overpowered them. I know that the Nazis confiscated all guns, and that certainly made it much more difficult, but in sheer numbers they could have overrun military bases and captured weapons. Some well-funded gun runners could have made a world of difference.

Andrews concludes there is a very simple explanation, so simple that we might laugh at it. The Nazis lied to their victims.

You see, one of the disadvantages of our western, Judaeo-Christian society (which 1930s Germany certainly was) is that we train our children, and ourselves, not to lie. (Not all societies teach this: Islam allows lying, especially to infidels). We are all brought up to tell the truth, and the mirror reflection of that is that we expect others to tell us the truth. There's a reason politicians and used car salesmen are held in low regard: we expect them to be lying. When there's a "big lie", a well coordinated story, told directly to your face by people who don't seem to be lying, we tend to believe them. Hitler himself said, "The great masses will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one". I believe that our normalcy bias makes us prefer to believe the lie than to believe our Government is trying to kill us.

(training our children - and ourselves in 20 years - not to lie)

JPFO founder Aaron Zelman said if every one of the Jews in the ghettos had a rifle, a few rounds of ammunition, and the will to use them, Adolph Hitler would have been a minor footnote in world history. Whether or not that's really true (alternate history is always wild speculation), it's hard to know, but the rag tag group that did acquire a few guns held the Nazis off for a month - longer than it took for them to take the rest of the Poland.

While we are culturally trained to not believe it, we should always keep in the back of our minds that the fed.gov hydra is lying to us. Today, it's easy to believe - almost guaranteed, and perhaps I don't need to remind this audience, but the worst genocides in history are always, always, always, carried out by governments following fully legal procedures in their countries.

Hope 'n Change 2012

2012-01-12T22:44:00.000-05:00

Mercilessly ripped off from the Feral Irishmanwho stole it from Pitsnipes Gripes.

That is all.

DHS Monitoring "Journalists", Collecting Personal Information

2012-01-11T21:11:00.000-05:00

I suppose it's not surprising that the Department of Fatherland Security feels they are authorized to monitor journalists or anyone who uses "social media" and collect whatever personal information they'd like to collect.

According to a report linked to Russia Today (motto: "It's Still 1984!"):

Department of Homeland Security now has permission under the National Operations Center (NOC)’s Media Monitoring Initiative to collect and retain personal information on "journalists, news anchors, reporters or anyone who uses 'traditional and/or social media in real time to keep their audience situationally aware and informed.'”

Sounds like all of us bloggers in the "liberty sphere" to me, although the "in real time" thing doesn't really apply. The story appeared on The Blaze, where reporter Tiffany Gabbay wrote:

According to DHS, the definition of personal identifiable information can consist of any [information - edited] “that permits the identity of an individual to be directly or indirectly inferred, including any information which is linked or linkable to that individual.”

I have always assumed this is the case, but that they just didn't say they were doing it - or they were monitoring us indirectly through a partner of some sort. It has long been the case, for example, that the NSA was not legally allowed to monitor Americans at home - which was enforced by the FBI, who considered it "their turf". So the NSA let one of their foreign partners, like British intelligence, monitor us and hand the data over. I read that somewhere online, it must be true.

According to an absolutely peachy pdf file at the DHS, they feel they have the right to collective personally identifiable information (PII) on (some emphasis added by me):

1) U.S. and foreign individuals in extremis situations involving potential life or death circumstances; 2) senior U.S. and foreign government officials who make public statements or provide public updates; 3) U.S. and foreign government spokespersons who make public statements or provide public updates; 4) U.S. and foreign private sector officials and spokespersons who make public statements or provide public updates; 5) names of anchors, newscasters, or on-scene reporters who are known or identified as reporters in their post or article or who use traditional and/or social media in real time to keep their audience situationally aware and informed; 6) current and former public officials who are victims of incidents or activities related to Homeland Security; and 7) terrorists, drug cartel leaders, or other persons known to have been involved in major crimes of Homeland Security interest.

Russia Today added:

Previously established guidelines within the administration say that data could only be collected under authorization set forth by written code, but the new provisions in the NOC’s write-up means that any reporter, whether someone along the lines of Walter Cronkite or a budding blogger, can be victimized by the agency.

This strikes me as blowback from Bradley Manning, and Julian Assange (the heart of Wikileaks), as well as the use of social media in the "Arab Spring" uprisings and even the use of Twitter in the Occupy Whatever protests. The "real time" angle seems to be directed at the latter sort of example: they want to know who's tweeting where the police are, or coordinating riots.

The people fed.gov has granted themselves permission to monitor are considered a threat to their power and fed.gov's (assumed) monopoly on the narrative. This recalls Donald Sensing's post I linked to Monday, "The Left's Only Question: Who is to Rule, That is All" As GardenSERF commented yesterday,

“If they get power, who loses power? We do. Do you want to lose power? No.”

(image source and the orignator)

Yo: TSA. You're Not Making it Any Better

2012-01-10T21:25:00.001-05:00

Remember back around Christmas when a woman had her cupcake confiscated by the TSA as a security threat? Ok, it turns out that this wasn't a normal cupcake. Like me, you probably envisioned the cupcake on the left. The TSA says it was the one on the right:

I'm terrified, I tell ya.

The TSA runs a blog where someone will comment on stories like this and "Blogger Bob" brings the TSA official story to the party. The problem is their explanation just doesn't make it better. Let me try to pull some quotes to show you what I mean:

I wanted to make it clear that this wasn’t your everyday, run-of-the-mill cupcake. If you’re not familiar with it, we have a policy directly related to the UK liquid bomb plot of 2006 called 3-1-1 that limits the amount of liquids, gels and aerosols you can bring in your carry-on luggage. Icing falls under the “gel” category. As you can see from the picture, unlike a thin layer of icing that resides on the top of most cupcakes, this cupcake had a thick layer of icing inside a jar.

So it wasn't a run-of-the-mill cupcake, it was a particularly scary cupcake; not just a little puff of cake with a smear of frosting on it, this is jar full of frosting with some cake allegedly embedded somewhere in it. Looking at the Cupcake of Doooooooom ... um, excuse me, Cupcake in a Jar, I was immediately struck with fear -- of diabetes, not of a bomb. Blogger Bob goes on to say:

In general, cakes and pies are allowed in carry-on luggage, however, the officer in this case used their discretion on whether or not to allow the newfangled modern take on a cupcake per 3-1-1 guidelines. They chose not to let it go.

So a pie is smaller than this jar o' frosting? A whole pie doesn't contain more than 3 ounces? That's some wimpy pie! Momma's key lime pies would certainly contain over 8 ounces of filling - and you'd best not try to put one in a zip lock bag, if you don't want Momma to chew your head off. .

Alright, I'll get serious. The first problem this illustrates with the TSA is that the rulings are "arbitrary and capricious"; they're never the same from agent to agent, from airport to bus station. The same woman - and others - have flown with more of these cupcakes many times, and are probably flying with them today. The second problem is that their rulings are illogical: would you think a pie is more or less likely to be stopped than a jar of frosting? I personally would guess there isn't even more than 3 ounces of frosting in there. But the real trouble is the big one: this is security theater. I'm sure these agents think they're doing the right things, but security doesn't come from stopping things it comes from stopping people and that ain't going to happen until we start allowing El Al style passenger profiling and interviews. Right now, the TSA antics are beyond useless, they're threatening real security by creating a false sense that they're doing something useful. They need to be sent home, with about 40% of the government work force.

Will There Be an Election 2012?

2012-01-09T21:33:00.001-05:00

In this comment to my post on Saturday, and in this comment on Friday commenter RegT posts an honest question about the coming presidential election. Is there really going to be an election next November?

This question is ordinarily the domain of real conspiracy theorists. It's high on the list of things I never thought I could end up thinking possible. But I can easily see possible scenarios that seem likely to end with no election in next fall. The Occupy Whatever idiots figure prominently in the scenario (all of what I've written is here, I think). Occupy got plenty of good will from the Evil party - Debbie Wasserman Shultz, party chair-critter, just praised them again the other day. Even some III patriots seemed to want to be part of it. You can expect them back when the weather warms a little.

In my New Years Post, I wrote:

The potential I see is for them to act up so badly that the (bankrupt) cities can't handle the expenses. Perhaps they assassinate a politician they don't like, or duplicate the Chicago 1968 Democratic Convention's riots. The (bankrupt) cities beg the (bankrupt) feds for help, and the National Guard is called up. Martial law is enacted, giving the fascists the chance to surround the white house with tanks and address the (right wing) domestic terrorism problem. This could make the last presidential election The Last Presidential Election.

Obviously, at no time in our history have elections been suspended. Not during the civil war, not during the world wars or any other crisis we have faced as a nation. That's probably the Rubicon beyond which open civil war begins. Or one branch of the Rubicon.

(h/t The Feral Irishman)

This would have to be in response to a crisis, as it always is - "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste, and what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you didn’t think you could do before.", as Rahm Emmanuel said. Rioting by Occupy idiots, leading to massive crackdowns on potential terrorists (all under the recently passed NDAA), and grabbing power "for the duration of the crisis" could be just such an example. Normal elections will be restored once the crisis is over. This is the sort of thing that marks a banana republic - and we are rapidly becoming one.

To quote George Orwell from 1984 (h/t to Donald at Sense of Events in his excellent piece, "The Left's Only Question: Who is to Rule, that is all".)

"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power."

The idea that a president would surround the White House with the tanks and declare elections ended is difficult to accept." It's a repugnant thought, but it's spreading: gathering minds around the country and elsewhere, folks feeling it in their gut and becoming concerned it's going to happen.

Sometime later I can tell you how I think a coup, takeover, and cessation of elections could be arranged by the muscle behind the administration: the New Black Panther Party, the Department of (Social) Justice, the Public Unions and so on.

My Light a Candle Day Shot

2012-01-08T19:20:00.001-05:00

I think the idea here goes back to Weer'd World, although I think I first saw the idea on Tango Juliet.

So why the heart shaped candle, and chocolates? The stereotype is that women like chocolate. The heart shaped candle, just a nice, cozy added touch. What's more comforting than relaxing at home on a cold night, under a blanket, with a couple of pounds of steel, brass and lead within reach if you need it? As much as we may dislike the idea, it is simply fact that smaller women are much more likely to be attacked than big men. They need the self-defense tools even more than men do. Everyone is talking about the way-too-young widow in Oklahoma who defended her child and her own life with a shotgun against two evil-incarnate men: a perfect example.

Borepatch has the quote that goes here:

One bleeding-heart type asked me in a recent interview if I did not agree that "violence begets violence." I told him that it is my earnest endeavor to see that it does. I would like very much to ensure—and in some cases I have—that any man who offers violence to his fellow citizen begets a whole lot more in return than he can enjoy. - Col. Jeff Cooper

The Bradys and the CSGV want to portray guns as horrible implements; I want to personalize and warm them up a bit.

Eliminating the Legislative Branch

2012-01-07T21:16:00.000-05:00

I'm sure you saw that the resident appointed a new chief of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Richard Cordray. This was done as a recess appointment - so that the president doesn't have to put up with that pesky senate. Richard Cordray replaces the stunning Marxist (now Massachusetts senate candidate) Elizabeth Warren, who was appointed in a pretty stunning end run around the law herself.

If you're not familiar with this agency, the CFPB was a turd wrapped in the Dodd-Frank bill to fix the problems in our financial system by (here's the brilliant part) doing absolutely nothing about the problems in our financial system. The CFPB doesn't report to congress, but to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Congress has no power over this agency; no financial strings, nothing. They effectively gelded themselves and extended the scalpel to likewise neuter the judicial branch. The law creating the CFPB removes any ability for judges to have any effect on it. An executive branch takeover of the financial sector.

But to make things really stink like old dead fish, the senate isn't even technically in recess, so a recess appointment is violation of the law!

(Michael Ramirez)

Recess appointments are nothing new. Right off the top of my head, I remember John Bolton getting a recess appointment as UN ambassador under W, but recess appointments while the senate is in session are a new low in ethics (or a new high in tyranny, depending on how you like your dictators). Jonah Goldberg brings the smart to a summary of this sort of politics. It's worth reading the whole thing.

In 2007, the Democrats controlling the Senate were fed up with George W. Bush's recess appointments. Majority Leader Reid, feigning great sadness over the sorry state of our republic, resorted to the extraordinary tactic of keeping the Senate in pro-forma session so as to prevent the imperial Bush from doing an end-run around the confirmation process. The move was celebrated by liberal commentators as a brave and necessary assertion of congressional power and was supported by then-Sen. Barack Obama.

Fast-forward to this week. The Senate has once again been in pro-forma session in order to keep President Obama from making recess appointments. Reid agreed to the tactic as part of negotiations with Republicans last year.

How this works, is a couple of opposition party senators show up for a roll call or a little while every day, thereby keeping the senate in session, by law, if not by fact of actually giving each other hand jobs, or whatever they do up there. But imperial leader Obama said this is just a sham, and declared the recess appointment.

With the alacrity one normally associates with court jesters and royal spittoon cleaners, Reid immediately endorsed the president's decision, accepting the logic that calls a maneuver he (Reid) invented a sham.

And I love Goldberg's closing words so much, I'll quote them here:

So here we have Reid, a man who tried to enter the national stage by promising to be an honorable foe of the imperial presidency and the metastasizing growth of federal bureaucracies, thriving on the national stage by enabling exactly those trends when it suits his party. And it all it cost was his honor.

Sorry. I Got Jo Dee Messina Syndrome

2012-01-06T22:16:00.000-05:00

My give a damn's busted.

We got DHS playing Stasi at a social security office in Leesburg (got a friend who lives over there). "Sorry"

We got the debt continuing to pile up, they're trying to raise the debt ceiling, and we're the brokest country in the history of the world - and BTW, you've got to go watch the video on Borepatch's place.
"Sorry, still nothing".

We got Iran threatening to attack our navy if we sail in the Straits of Hormuz, and provoke war in the region. Even a partial restriction of the oil out of the region is predicted to bring back oil at $150/barrel and regular at over $4/gallon.
"Let me dig a little deeper. No still nothing"

My give a damn's busted. Maybe tomorrow.

(Jo Dee Messina, courtesy of D'Addario strings)

Ron Paul is Winning

2012-01-05T22:00:00.000-05:00

In fact, he may have already won. No not the presidency, the New Hampshire primary or anything like that.

No I'm not crazy.

Hear me out. I don't think Ron Paul will ever be president. If there is a President Paul, it's either going to be Rand or perhaps Rand's child. But Ron Paul's ideas are winning in the marketplace of ideas. Paul has been doing this a long time, and his views on the Fed, his views on living by the constitution, and his views on public debt are becoming mainstream. You may laugh at me. But large groups are talking about these things in ways that they never have before. Rick Perry said he'd have Bernanke arrested if the Fed Head ever came into Texas. Attempting to beat Ron Paul at his own game. There's more of it out there. Expect to see Ron Paul's ideas as planks in the party platform.

I reported months ago that a pretty good computer study has said that when an idea gets 10% of the population behind it, that idea eventually takes over. I've been noticing that trend more and more, and had it pointed out yet again, tonight, in an interview with Andy Andrews, the author of "How Do You Kill 11 Million People?" Did you know that at its very peak, the German National Socialist Party (the Nazis) had a membership of about 10% of the country's population?

Reloading Toy

2012-01-04T20:17:00.001-05:00

I don't know how many took advantage of this, but last month, all Hornady dealers dropped the price on their ultrasonic cleaners - I assume that Hornady set that up. So I picked up one of these on an after Christmas order.

It arrived last Friday, and I finally got a chance to use it yesterday, after our range trip on Monday - I didn't have any brass to clean until then.

It's a little funky to use. The timer goes up to 480 seconds (8 minutes) in odd increments (100 seconds?), but it's easy to use. The instructions say you'll typically need 3 cycles. After cleaning up the .38 special brass, I went to dump it in with matching brass I had tumbled in corn cob media and suddenly realized the old stuff wasn't clean enough. So it went into the ultrasonic. Then I took a look at the 45 ACP I had tumbled. It went into the ultrasonic. I haven't looked at anything else I've already tumbled - I think I know what that answer is going to be.

I bet this is another symptom of Attention Surplus Syndrome. Any of you reloaders experienced this?

Does the UAW Live or Do We?

2012-01-03T20:11:00.001-05:00

Kind of a stark way of putting it, but the UAW is facing life or death. In the past 30 years, almost every job lost in an auto factory has been in a UAW plant, while almost every job gained has been in a non-union factory. The UAW's membership is plunging, to the point where operating funds are coming out of savings. Although Obama gave them GM and Chrysler, screwing other unions, such as the teachers' unions that bought GM bonds for their retirement funds, and screwing other bond holders (not to mention centuries of contract law), the Glorious Peoples' Automotive Collectives are not faring well. According to a story widely circulated, and covered by NPR, UAW contracts force companies to add about $3000 to the price of a car, to pay for union benefits. They are simply not competitive in the world marketplace. Faced with this choice, the UAW is doing what any drowning victim does; they are trying to stay alive by climbing on anyone that's handy. Or, in this case, throwing anyone under the bus they can.

Columnist John Ransom at Town Hall writes that the UAW has decided on a course of action that borders on economic terrorism, a worldwide boycott. Ransom equates it to suicide bombing the US economy, which is hanging on by the thinnest of threads. He links to a Reuters article, which says,

The United Auto Workers union is staking its future on the kind of struggle it hasn't waged since the 1930s: a massive drive to organize hostile factories.

This time, the target is foreign car makers, whose workers have rebuffed the union repeatedly. Specifically, Reuters has learned, the union is going after U.S. plants owned by German manufacturers Volkswagen AG and Daimler AG, seen as easier nuts to crack than the Japanese and South Koreans.

It's a battle the UAW cannot afford to lose. By failing to organize factories run by foreign automakers, the union has been a spectator to the only growth in the U.S. auto industry in the last 30 years. That failure to win new members has compounded a crunch on the UAW's finances, forcing it to sell assets and dip into its strike fund to pay for its activities.

Ransom adds:

As I reported last March, the UAW’s honcho, (Bob) King, gave foreign automakers including BMW, Volkswagen AG, Toyota and Nissan an offer they can't refuse: Unionize their workers or else he'll single out one automaker and put the screws to them with a boycott. Never mind that the boycott will hurt workers, consumers and the US economy

What UAW is saying is that since they add $3000 per car to the price of anything sold by the unionized shops, they need to raise the price of every car everywhere by that amount, by unionizing the world. Or as Andy Stern said, "workers of the world unite: it's not just a slogan any more". There are those who believe one reason for the government's raking of Toyota over a sticking accelerator earlier in the Obama administration was to get the liability costs that Toyota faces to add a few thousand dollars to the price of a car and more level the costs between Toyota and GM.

The UAW faces an uphill battle. The plants they want to unionize are in the south, a part of the country not known as strong union country. From the Reuters piece:

On one crucial front, the effort to keep wages at union plants above those at non-union plants, the UAW has already lost a lot of ground.

Newly hired workers earn $14.50 an hour at VW in Chattanooga. That is just below the $14.78 that a new hire would make at a unionized GM plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee. Adjusted for monthly dues at Spring Hill, the VW worker is behind by only about $15 per month.

I like the way Ransom ended his column, so let me conclude with that quote here:

The UAW has pushed the domestic auto industry to the brink of death.

And the only way they can survive is by using the old mob tactic of firebombing a competitor. But that tactic will likely backfire, as consumers, already resentful of union and government interference in the auto industry, simply shrug their shoulders and buy Volkswagens and Daimlers anyway, perhaps not in spite of, but because of the boycott.

Consumers of the world unite.

VW's Tennessee plant - source

As Long As Everyone's Posting Range Trips

2012-01-02T20:39:00.001-05:00

I gather those of you in the parts of the country where there's this thing called "winter" have been having a mild one, so it has been good weather for being outdoors. Ours has been warm, like 80 most days, but is getting colder tonight. Current forecast is for 33 and 29 tomorrow night.

Part of good weather for being outdoors is that I see Borepatch, Random Acts of Patriotism and Brigid have posted range pictures in the last few days. And that's just a few. Although it didn't go over 75 today, we went to the indoor range. I took some cellphone video of the diminutive but deadly Mrs. Graybeard shooting her S&W, .38 special, and frame grabbed this with some playing around.

On the table is that .22 Rossi I wrote about in November. I had a bunch of failures to fire in the Rossi, with bulk Federal .22LR (this stuff - not a customer, no kickback, yada yada), and some FTF with a box of PMC Moderator subsonic. I'd say no big deal - you usually get a few duds with cheap bulk ammo, but we were using two guns: a S&W 22A semiauto and that Rossi revolver. In the 22A, every round went bang, while I probably tossed a half dozen from the Rossi. Seems like the strike must be too light, and I think I'll have that checked.

We didn't bring everything, just a few handguns. All things considered a wonderful way to start the new year.

New Years Perspective

2012-01-01T21:26:00.000-05:00

New Years is often a time for sappy remembrance pieces on the news and even on the blogs. Thankfully there isn't much of that around this year - and there won't be any sappiness here. I do (as always) have a few of my odd perspectives to pass along. Enter our annual friend, Janus, stage left...

The reason why there are few sappy "biggest news of 2011" stories on the air appears to be the Iowa caucuses, which, judging by the palpable excitement of breathless news bimbos, are going to be any minute now. The Iowa caucuses are such a big deal because they mean just about nothing. Pretty much exactly nothing. The Stupid Party winner last time was Mike Huckabee, who went on, flush from that victory to ... nothing. He appears to have gained back about 50 pounds (like I should talk...) and hosts a variety show. The Iowa thingy isn't even an election, so anyone with a good organization can bring people from a thousand miles away to caucus. Whatever that is. New Hampshire is a real primary, and means marginally more. At most, these early things sort out some real marginal candidates. Maybe, maybe, they alert us to an unknown who has put together a popular approach (Bamster won last time). As far as campaigning goes, wake me in a month or two. Actually, living in Florida, I probably need to be awake sooner, since we vote January 31.

News pundits regularly try to predict what's coming in the new year, but the major news stories of the year are never guessed.

I'd say the biggest story of 2011 was the Japanese quake and tsunami - of course that couldn't be predicted. Probably the next biggest story would be the Arab uprisings which started in Tunisia and consumed the region; again, unpredicted. In the coming global war, this might be the true "archduke Ferdinand moment" (my reference was to the coming financial collapse). The combination of the Islamists trying to establish a caliphate working with socialists trying to collapse the west could be the most important story of the year, for its potential, but I don't recall that being predicted this time last year. Finally, the biggest domestic story was probably the Occupy Whatever idiots (all of what I've written is here, I think). A marriage of convenience between zero-government anarchists and total-government socialists, this seems to go back to a talk by an SEIU vice-president last spring, but was not predicted. Occupy got enough good will from the Evil party - and even some III patriots - that you can expect them back when the weather warms a little. The potential I see is for them to act up so badly that the (bankrupt) cities can't handle the expenses. Perhaps they assassinate a politician they don't like, or duplicate the Chicago 1968 DNC riots. The (bankrupt) cities beg the (bankrupt) feds for help, and the National Guard is called up. Martial law is enacted, giving the fascists the chance to surround the white house with tanks and address the (right wing) domestic terrorism problem. This could make the last presidential election The Last Presidential Election.

While Fast and Furious is a story that gets most of us ready to heat up tar and gather feathers, it has yet to as much national traction as it deserves. The excellent work of Mike Vanderboegh and David Codrea goes without saying; the right folks know who broke this story. Kudos to Sharyl Attkisson of CBS for trying to make this the national story it deserves to be. Our runaway federal debt with no elected politicians calling for actual spending cuts should be a big story, but only us deficit-geeks care about it. Until the collapse.

Actually, looking at my post for New Year 2011, most of it still goes, and worked out pretty accurately.

Finally, I'd like to thank all of you who stop by and read my rantings. A year ago, Sitemeter said I got about 70 visits per day average; this last week it was 350 per day average. My aim is to make it worth both of our time.

Happy New Year to all. May we look back some day and say 2011 was the worst year we ever went through.

40 Years in the Desert

2011-12-31T21:44:00.001-05:00

In modern America, I'll bet everyone, even the most ardent atheists, have heard the story of the Exodus and the 40 years the Israelis spent wandering the desert. Thanks to Charlton Heston's portrayal of Moses and Cecil B. DeMille's production of The Ten Commandments, it's not just young kids in parochial school who learn this. Even I knew the highlights of this story in my most atheistic days.

Something that is glossed over is a simple question: why 40 years wandering the desert?. And, no, it's not because Moses wouldn't stop to ask for directions, in the words of the "men are so stupid" joke.

40 years was so that the generation that knew only slavery in Egypt would die off. In their place would be a generation born during the Exodus, who were accustomed to depending on God every day, for their only food was manna from heaven that was provided every day, except the sabbath. It would be a generation that had never known slavery, only dependence on God, but was otherwise self-directing. It wasn't right to put a generation into the promised land that only knew how to be slaves. A generation that knew how to decide things for themselves, with prayerful requests, of course, would be much better custodians of the land.

Where am I going? Why this story? Although it was a couple of days ago, I just saw Brock's posting over at Free North Carolina, "We're in Trouble" It's a 5 minute video with an economics teacher from Valencia College in Florida talking about his students' definition of the American dream, which includes getting you and I to provide their medical care, give them a job, pay for their house downpayment, and a lot of other things that don't seem to appear anywhere in our founding documents.

You see, it so happens it's 40 years since the 1960s radicals, like Bill Ayers, and his crowd, took over education. It's long enough for the generation that taught any real values to have died off (or retired) - for the most part. It's long enough so that every kid coming out of the public schools in the USSA has been marinated in socialism for their entire education - provided largely by educators who have marinated in socialism their entire lives. A child starting school in 1970 would have graduated college in 1987 (on average); they've been soaked in socialism for over 40 years.

Is it any wonder this is what they produce? Is it coincidence? Yeah, I don't think so, either. We have a lot of teaching to do.

Go watch the video on Brock's page

Charlton Heston as Moses, with his two iPads.

Predator/Prey Ratio

2011-12-30T13:00:00.000-05:00

A key term in population biology is predator to prey ratio, a measure of how much prey it takes to support a predator. Usually:

predator/prey ratio = predator weight x number / prey weight x number

A low predator to prey ratio means big efficient predators. A large ratio of predators to prey is found in cold-blooded predators like spiders. An African lion in the savannah has a predator to prey ratio of about 1%. A spider is more like 20% - 20 times more weight in spiders per weight of prey than the lion. The spider is inefficient: it puts out a web and catches what it can. If you've ever been in a wooded area when fog conditions were right, you might have noticed an astonishing number of webs, attesting to how many spiders there are per acre. (Large dinosaurs like T-Rex have a ratio much closer to the African Lion than the spiders - source)

Enter the government ruling class. A group of predators (or parasites) likened to ticks by Barry Ferguson at Financial Sense. Like all inefficient predators, the number of ticks feeding on your blood and my blood, is quite high.

Ticks are parasitic blood sucking arachnids. Their existence is dependent upon latching on to another animal with a blood circulation. We humans can be targets but our dog friends are especially vulnerable to attack. Ticks find a victim, burrow into the epidermis, suck until they are engorged, drop off, digest, and repeat. This is now the story of our existence as it pertains to our governments. We are the dog. They are the tick. There are more of them than us. Their goal is to bleed us dry. There is now an adversarial relationship between the governed and the governors.

As Thomas Jefferson once noted, ‘When the government is fearful of the people, you have liberty. When the people are fearful of the government, you have tyranny.’

And since I'm an incurable wise ass, a link to my favorite nature video of all time.

How John Corzine Could Be Archduke Ferdinand

2011-12-29T18:18:00.000-05:00

The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was, by everything I've read, not regarded as an important event beyond the immediate area. A minor incident in history except for being widely recognized as the trigger that led to World War I - recognized in hindsight, I might add. World War I led inexorably to the Weimar Republic, which led inexorably to Hitler, and World War II. The world is still not fully recovered from WWII, and, like the first dark ages, it may never really recover, it's just that after some number of centuries, the silt of history will cover the damages over. All because some minor royal figure was assassinated in a province with ambitions for independence.

And so it seems with MF Global. It looks as though the collapse of MF Global is quietly leading to the collapse of the world's banking systems. That will wreak damages as bad as any war. In the wake of the damages done by the collapse of MF Global, many smart people are starting to recommend getting out of equities or any form of paper. The first I read was Ann Barnhardt, in this piece from 11/17, where she declares she is closing her capital management business:

The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy.

Many followed. On this page, I wrote about the fundamental dishonesty of our financial system (link to Bayou Renaissance Man) and how MF Global Eff'ed Gerald Celente. Denninger has written on this, as have many others (too many to link to).

Tuesday, Gonzalo Lira writes that he thinks we're on the verge of a global run on the banks, which would precipitate collapse. The problem is how the "system" handled the theft of customers' money:

Brokerage firms hold clients’ money in what are known as segregated accounts. This is the money that brokerage firms hold for when a customer makes a trade. If a brokerage firm goes bankrupt, these monies are never touched—because they never belonged to the firm, and thus are not part of its assets.

Think of segregated accounts as if they were the content in a safety deposit box: The bank owns the vault—but it doesn’t own the content of the safety deposit boxes inside the vault. If the bank goes broke, the customers who stored their jewelry and pornographic diaries in the safe deposit boxes don’t lose a thing. The bank is just a steward of those assets—just as a brokerage firm is the steward of those customers’ segregated accounts.

But when MF Global went bankrupt, these segregated accounts—that is, the content of those safe deposit boxes—were taken away from their rightful owners—that is, MF Global’s customers—and then used to pay off other creditors: That is, JPMorgan.

and describes how 40,000 customers of MF Global were robbed of their segregated accounts to the tune of billions of dollars (legally, due to rehypothecation). Lira goes on to say:

As I write this, a lot of investors whom I know personally—who are sophisticated, wealthy, and not at all the paranoid type—are quietly pulling their money out of all brokerage firms, all banks, all equity firms. They are quietly trading out of their paper assets and going into the actual, physical asset.
...
Now, because of this open kleptocracy and cronyism being shown by the financial authorities in the wake of the MF Global bankruptcy, we’ve been obliged to put together a new Scenario, devoted exclusively to preparing for a run on the markets: What to do in order to protect your assets from regulatory malfeasance, if there is a system-wide MF Global-type breakdown and a subsequent run on the entire financial system.

And there will be such a run on the system: It’s only a matter of time. In fact, the handling of the MF Global affair has sped up the timeframe for this run on the system, because the forward-edge players—such as Demeester, myself, and my other acquaintances who understand the implications of the bankruptcy—realize that the regulators will side with the banksters, and not the ordinary investors: So we are preparing accordingly.

Gonzalo Lira is in the financial business: his job is to plan for scenarios like this. The fact that the planners, and the savvy investors he writes of, along with Ann Barnhardt, Karl Denninger, and more, can see that the banking system is sliding into collapse, is dire warning to all of us.

John Corzine, as seen by Chip Bok, at Town Hall.

A Sunrise Major Comet

2011-12-28T13:58:00.000-05:00

OK, now I'm jealous of the folks living in Australia. Folks in the southern hemisphere are being treated to a sunrise display of a major comet, Comet Lovejoy. These pictures from the Andes will give you an idea of what it's like on these early summer mornings for observers in dark locations.

(source - copyright Guillaume Blanchard)

Comet Lovejoy is unusual in a couple of ways - besides being a bright, naked eye comet. First, it was discovered by an amateur astronomer: Terry Lovejoy (who describes his discovery here). While comets were often discovered by amateurs patiently searching the sky every night, the advent of satellites to automate the search has meant that most comets are now discovered by robots. Second, Comet Lovejoy survived a close brush with the sun. The space geeks who keep up with Soho, the solar observing satellites, have seen dozens of comets crash into the sun, and it is a remarkable comet that survives the encounter.

As far as I can tell, the northern hemisphere will completely miss this comet.

I first got interested in astronomy as 7th grader, and played in the evenings with a small refractor, eventually getting a 4" reflector. I learned I had just missed what many consider the best comet of the 20th century, Ikeya-Seki in 1965, a comet so bright, it could be seen in broad daylight if you masked the sun with your hand! Some years later, a major comet became visible in late 1969 and into 1970. Comet Bennett was visible in the mornings before school, and it was a companion every clear morning throughout the winter and into spring. More history here.

Could the US Return to a Gold Standard?

2011-12-27T14:03:00.000-05:00

“That if any of the gold or silver coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint shall be debased or made worse as to the proportion of fine gold or fine silver therein contained, or shall be of less weight or value than the same ought to be pursuant to the directions of this act, through the default or with the connivance of any of the officers or persons who shall be employed at the said mint, for the purpose of profit or gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent, and if any of the said officers or persons shall embezzle any of the metals which shall at any time be committed to their charge for the purpose of being coined, or any of the coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint, every such officer or person who shall commit any or either of the said offences, shall be deemed guilty of felony, and shall suffer death.” –Chap. 16 , Section 19 of the Coinage Act of 1792, passed by the United States Congress on April 2, 1792. (source)

While driving home the other day, I heard Dick Morris talking about presidential politics. Nothing new there; this is the guy who helped get Bill Clinton elected, then had "an awakening" and became a conservative. He was talking about Ron Paul in this instance, calling him an "appalling <blank>hole", then ripping Dr. Paul a new one for advocating a return to the gold standard. His rip was classic "barbaric relic" rhetoric, about how we got off the gold standard because it "held our economy back", and "the US economy shouldn't depend on some miner in South Africa" succeeding in a gold mine. Just look at the increase in wealth since we got off the gold standard!

Then he went on to add a disclaimer that, sure, Bernanke has printed too much money and the Fed was troublesome, but "there's a big gap between abstention and alcoholism" and we simply need to be somewhere between those two limits. (That's his actual quote, as best as I can recall).

For a little necessary background, the term "barbaric relic" for gold is from John Maynard Keynes himself, and has been widely parroted by those opposed to a "real money" standard. "Seriously, Muffy, no civilized, advanced society need be bound by having actual, physical, gold, must they? Why, gold is what caused the Spanish to rape and pillage South America, the pursuit of El Dorado, after all!" To keep this down under a million words, I won't get into Ron Paul or any of the other candidates' politics: that's not the point of this.

The point of this is "could we go back on a gold standard"? (and when I say gold standard, understand it could be any commodity that people value; anything but fiat paper that can be printed in infinite amounts). Perhaps the place to start is the converse, why did the world go off the gold standard? From where I sit, they did that so that government spending, and therefore government, could grow essentially without limit. Is that a good thing? As one of my heroes, the (now-retired) Mogambo Guru once put it,

Whether or not this theory is true, I don’t know, but I don’t think so, as I have never read anything like, “From the moment that the government started creating and spending large amounts of money, everything got better and better, and the more money that was created for the government to spend, the better things got, until they reached Utopia and everybody lived happily ever after.”

If we were on a gold standard, we would need to spend less - but we wouldn't necessarily have to balance the budget. Some debt - my rough guess: 20% of GDP - would be possible, as long as other nations and people felt that the interest we paid was reasonable and they were confident they'd get it back. The free market would have to set interest rates, not Helicopter Ben (or his ilk). You can bet your butt our interest rates would be much higher and the monetary shenanigans the Fed creates wouldn't be possible. In turn, that means it would be harder for the government to fund wars or an ever-growing entitlement state; the quantity of gold would have to expand to increase the money supply. Increasing our money supply – the thing that Morris thinks has improved the economy – has (IMO) led to the gradual decline of the middle class.

Buried in Morris' assumptions is that if we go back to the gold standard, we go back to the 1972 dollar, but why would that be? We could declare a dollar to be worth any amount of gold we wanted between 1972's $35/ounce and today's number of dollars divided by the amount of gold we have. In other words, 1972's $35/oz - meant each dollar bill was backed by 1/35 oz of gold. According to Wikipedia, the US claims 147.2 million ounces of gold in Ft. Knox. The amount of dollars in circulation is harder to know, but there are some available estimates of that, called the M1 money supply. If we simply divided the 2.2 trillion dollars in the M1 money supply by the amount of gold in Ft. Knox, that would bring the price of gold to $14,900 per ounce, so each dollar would be backed by 1/14,900 of an ounce (around 2 milligrams). I have seen writers suggest that the M1 supply is drastically under reported; that would increase that $14,900 price. Likewise, if there is less gold in US hands, that also acts to increase the price - which reduces the amount of gold behind each dollar. I'm sure you've heard the people who speculate that there is no gold in Ft. Knox and the Fed took it all. That would make gold almost unobtainable in dollars.

Gold at about $15,000/oz. would shake the jewelry business to its core, making gold only practical for plating, if that, and making platinum, palladium and silver the jewelry metals. (I'm sure you've seen rhodium plated items, often considered cheap jewelry, but rhodium costs about as much as platinum). Platinum is currently cheaper than gold; they crossed this past summer (IIRC) for the first time I can recall. The market for scrap gold, the rings and things that people have and just keep for no particular reason, would probably drop well below that price as the supply would spike like crazy - as would theft of gold jewelry. There are still many industrial uses for gold; it's used in electronics for plating contacts of many kinds, in optics, and dental work, of course. Electronics would either increase in price, or alternatives would be found - probably less reliable alternatives. I believe the price of gold would cascade into the other metals, too, but can't predict how much they'd go up.

Backing the dollar with $15,000/oz gold wouldn't affect today's prices in fiat dollars, like going to $35/oz gold would. It wouldn't scale prices to 1971 levels; your $250,000 house wouldn't suddenly be priced at $583 (the same ratio as 35/15000). I think that sort of disruption is what people opposed to the gold standard are thinking of. If we said dollars had to be backed at $35/oz of gold, we'd either have to drastically multiply our supply of gold (not bloody likely) or drastically decrease the number of dollars. That would be quite a disruption. But any move in the direction of a new standard would cause disruptions world wide - and guess what? they're happening already.

Note that we haven't devalued the dollar with respect to 1972, we just pegged it in place to the current supply of gold we have. Devaluing the dollar from being backed by about 900 milligrams of gold to 2 milligrams is what the Fed has been doing since we got off the gold standard, and ultimately since their formation in 1913. The dollar has about 3% of the value it had when the Federal Reserve started. While it's true (as Morris said) that Bernanke has been printing too much money, the majority of that decrease in value, percentage-wise, was long ago and was handed to Bernanke by Alan Greenspan. When the full series is plotted, you see that the dollar is worth about 5 cents in 1913. When you look at this plot, you can see that Bernanke has decreased the value of the dollar, but most of the damage was done by his predecessors. This is one of the arguments against what Dick Morris said.

So when Dick Morris or anyone says our economy has grown since 1972, has it really grown, or is it just inflation - the same as devaluing the dollar? Another aspect of the Fed's action and the way the government reports statistics is that it's harder to tease this information out. Inflation has the effect of making the economy look better and the country look richer, while it's actually robbing the people. You have more dollars, but more are required to buy what you need. This appearance of a growing economy is what the government wants, though – the better to fool you with. Most people don't think of this: they see their house price is up, or the Dow is hovering around 12,000 and never think that without the last year's inflation alone, the Dow would be about 11,000.

One way to measure whether or not wealth is actually increasing or if you're just seeing inflation is to divide GDP by the population: normalize GDP per capita. Porter Stansberry's research group produced this chart of an inflation adjusted GDP per capita. It shows that the per capita GDP went down drastically during the 70s (Nixon and Carter) with a strange, but short, reversal in about 1977 and slowly increased until around 9/11/01 (through Reagan, Bush 1 and Clinton). Since the middle of Bush 2's term, wealth has been in a nose dive and is now the lowest it has ever been.

Stansberry's graph only extends back to about 10 years before the final death of the gold standard, not to the start of the Federal Reserve Bank. Nevertheless, it completely disproves Morris' statement that getting off a gold standard has led to increased wealth.

This plot is an example of one of the most important ideas in economics, the marginal utility function. The simple idea here is that if you have one dollar, another dollar is very useful; but if you have a billion dollars, the next dollar doesn't have much utility – and that's the hole that Bernanke finds himself in now. He has flooded the world with dollars, and there simply isn't much more utility in the next dollar being created. The next round of QE – whatever they call it – can't be as useful as the first one. Which wasn't very useful.

It has been said that an ounce of gold buys today about what it did at any point in the past. Stephen Harmston, former economist at Bannock Consulting, wrote that “across 2,500 years, gold has retained its purchasing power, relative to bread at least” which is seemingly proved when one considers that “It is said that an ounce of gold bought 350 loaves of bread in the time of Nebuchadnezzar, king of Babylon, who died in 562 BC” which is roughly what it buys today, a stretch of 2,500 years. With some judicious selection of the exact brand of bread, you get remarkably close to 350 loaves (and I'm sure there was some variation in what a loaf of bread cost even in King N's day). Likewise, you'll hear that an ounce of gold would buy a good toga and sandals in pre-Christian Rome, and buys a well-tailored suit and shoes today, or you'll hear that a $20 gold piece bought an 1851 Colt Single Action Army revolver, and today buys a good grade 1911. The point of all of these is that the price of gold is a standard by which other things can be measured. Sure, technology marches along and brings down the cost of some things, but most things that increase in price over the long term do so because the currency inflates.

It is not true that a gold standard removes inflation and deflation, and it's not true that depressions are impossible with a standard. The 1800s had a few periods of inflation over 5%, including a big jump for the civil war, to over 25%; but after those inflation periods, the government took their medicine and dialed back the spending to reign things back in. In 1895 during a bad depression, J.P. Morgan personally bailed out the US; in 1907, Morgan and John Rockefeller bailed out the country together (ref). In those cases, the Federal government was small enough that individuals, although millionaires, could bail it out. So even though the gold standard could not prevent inflation and deflation, the standard kept inflation and recession under more control, so that they weren't as bad as they could have been. In 1900, the “cost of living” was actually lower than it was in 1800, a reflection of improved productivity in farming and other aspects of life.

It's hard to actually get numbers because the way the statistics were kept over the years has varied. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has calculated a time series and posted it. I take this with a grain of salt because I can't help but believe they do things to make themselves look better. For last year, for example, they use an inflation value of 1.7%, which certainly uses the BLS statistics, not the way it was calculated before. Shadowstats, using the 1980s algorithm, says the rate was closer to 10% which would make these plots look even worse for the Fed. That said, I think these plots don't make them look good at all, so just look at these and say “it's really worse than that”.

The increase in the "CPI since 1800" plot shows the compound interest effect of that "Inflation Since the Birth of the Fed" graph almost always being centered above zero, and especially since the final decoupling of the gold standard in 1971. Note how in the 1800-1912 period, the inflation graph stayed centered around zero more of the time.

The Keynesians are right about one thing: there is nothing inherent to gold that makes it a standard. Nothing besides the fact that people have always valued gold, wanted gold, and very probably always will. A currency does not need to be based on a gold standard. As I've said before, we could have a fiat dollar and just not debase it. Our leaders and central bankers would have to not play politics with the dollar, not use the printing press to buy votes, not try to change the dollar's value to tweak other countries (cough - China - cough) and they would have to live within a constrained budget. They should not be allowed to print money to fund foreign wars or the welfare state. All they would have to be would be grown up, mature leaders.

In other words, we're screwed. We could and should return to a gold standard. The details will be messy and need to be watched like a hawk. But these are messy times, and they're fixin' to get messier.

Word

2011-12-26T11:32:00.001-05:00

And that word is "arrogant". A couple of looks at illustrious leader:

Michael Ramirez, from Investors Business Daily, and Townhall.com

Merry Christmas, Happy Channukah

2011-12-24T14:17:00.001-05:00

or whatever you choose to celebrate. You can change the words, but you can't change my warmest wishes for everything good for you and those you cherish.

Churches, like all groups, have personalities, and in the one I attend, it would be remarkable to toss a wadded up paper ball and not hit an engineer, nurse, doctor, or a techie professional. Or an insurance agent, lawyer, paralegal, IT pro, or small business owner... It's not news to this bunch that Jesus was probably born in the spring (or fall, depending on whom you read), that the December 25th date comes from adapting to the Roman Saturnalia or other pagan holidays; nor would they be shocked if you told them Christmas has more secular than holy traditions associated with it. Not that we don't joyously celebrate the reason for the season, but Easter is a bigger holiday than Christmas for the simple reason that everyone has a birthday, but only one man in history has ever come back.

That said, while the idea that there's a war on Christmas is sometimes ridiculed, there really is an intentional attack on Christmas in the public square. It's part of the larger attempt to destroy western culture. The bright guys at Washington Rebel (Morgan Freeburg, in this case) have some good observations on this. They start out with the story that elected Congress Critters have been forbidden to use the term Merry Christmas in their mailings to constituents:

This is a constant in the War on Christmas. It’s a bunch of “can’t can’t can’t” with no purpose to it at all.

Two. And this is a bit more subtle: The congressmen, who are elected to their positions and are therefore accountable to the will of the electorate, are told what they can & cannot do by people who are not similarly elected, and therefore are not similarly accountable. There isn’t much point to noticing that, except for one thing…

…this, too, is a constant in the War on Christmas. Useless rules, which because of their uselessness are completely arbitrary, since they function as ethereal guardrails marking the edge of a highway that doesn’t have any such edge. And although they are arbitrary, they are enforced, ...

A perfect example is the "three reindeer rule". The war on Christmas can be tracked to the 1950's "Communist Agenda". This was entered into the Congressional Record in 1963, from a book written by an FBI agent in 1958.

27. Infiltrate the churches and replace revealed religion with"social" religion. Discredit the Bible and emphasize theneed for intellectual maturity which does not need a "religiouscrutch." (see Jim Wallis and the Social Justice in churches movement)
28. Eliminate prayer or any phase of religious expression in theschools on the ground that it violates the principle of "separationof church and state.

I would have been as skeptical as anyone, five years ago, if someone told me communists still existed and were still trying to destroy the west. Now that I've seen it, I don't doubt it. Maybe the groups that want to destroy us don't all want communism, maybe they just want to be god-emperors themselves. But it is clear they are doing all they can to implement these two items from 50+ years ago.

When asked to define the American religion, Benjamin Franklin said, "I believe in one God, the creator of the universe. That he governs by his providence. That he ought to be worshipped. That the most acceptable service we render to him is doing good to his other children. That the soul of man is immortal, and will be treated with justice in another life respecting its conduct in this." There is no denomination mentioned there.

"And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more."
-- Dr. Seuss

A Quick Recommendation

2011-12-24T10:39:00.001-05:00

In my favorite regular reads was Gardenserf's Plot - "was" because Chris is taking his blog down and stopped adding to it a few weeks ago. For another week or so, he has a link up to Amazon, where he sells a compilation of blog posts called Roadkill Medicine.

Do yourself a favor and spend the 99cents on yourself for the Kindle version or buy the paperback. If you don't have a Kindle reader, Amazon gives away a Kindle application for your just about every platform.

I'm not quite halfway through it, and it's good stuff.

FUJIGM

2011-12-23T21:23:00.000-05:00

FUJIGM - pronounced foo-jig-'em - is an acronym I first heard about 35 years ago, and it was probably old back then. Roughly translated, it stands for (to heck with) yoU, Jack, I Got Mine (how's that for keeping a G-rated blog?).

The FUJIGM attitude is one of our country's biggest problems. It's the reason for fights over retirement benefits, it's the reason for social programs and "entitlements" (speaking of obscenities...) it's one of the main reasons why the market crashed in 2008, and it's a main reason it's getting ready to crash even worse in the coming months.

Porter Stansberry, who runs a large investment advisory firm, published a long column this month on the coming crash. He calls it "The Corruption of America". Kevin, over at the Smallest Minority linked to it twice, saying, "If you read nothing else this weekend, read this". I agree. Long but very worthwhile.

I've been working on a long uberpost on what it would really mean to go back to a commodity standard, and it's a bit of a slog, but Stansberry addresses some of that in here. He addresses the decline in standard of living in the US and talks about how difficult that is to actually quantify, largely because of the way the government keeps statistics.

Unfortunately, it's a harder question to answer than it should be. The problem is, we don't have a sound currency with which to measure GDP through time. Until 1971, the U.S. dollar was defined as a certain amount of gold. And the price of gold was fixed by international agreement. It didn't actually begin to trade freely until 1975. Therefore, the value of the U.S. dollar (and thus the value of U.S. production, which is measured in dollars) was manipulated higher for many years.

Even today, our government's nominal GDP figures are greatly influenced by inflation. The influence of inflation is particularly pernicious in GDP studies. You see, inflation, which actually reduces our standard of living, drives up the amount of nominal GDP. So it creates the appearance of a wealthier country... while the nation is actually getting poorer.

The ruling class prefers this lie because it makes them look better. See, GDP has gone up and the DJIA is above 12,000 - you're better off.

How does this lie tie in to the title?

You see, I believe the decline of our country is primarily a decline of our culture.

We have lost our sense of honor, humility, and the dedication to personal responsibility that, for more than 200 years, made our country the greatest hope for mankind. I want to detail some of the factors that gave rise to the current entitlement society. We have become a country of people who believe their well-being is someone else's responsibility.

Curing FUJIGM is easy - in the same way running a marathon is easy - if you put one foot in front of the other long enough, you'll get there. And, for some, it requires the same amount of effort to always live a life beyond reproach, to not only care about getting your own. To put other people's concerns, at the very least, as high in priority as your own. Duty, honor, humility and personal responsibility.

Duty is the most sublime word in our language. Do your duty in all things. You cannot do more. You should never wish to do less. - Robert E. Lee

Chevy Volt - As Subsidized As the East German Trabant?

2011-12-22T19:45:00.000-05:00

According to the Michigan Capitol Confidential, each Volt may be costing US taxpayers $250,000.

Maybe I should say that again: every Chevy Volt may be costing US taxpayers $250,000!!!

Sorry for shouting.

Each Chevy Volt sold thus far may have as much as $250,000 in state and federal dollars in incentives behind it – a total of $3 billion altogether, according to an analysis by James Hohman, assistant director of fiscal policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy.

There are some reasons to think that those incentives and subsidies may not all be paid out, and the cost won't be that bad, and even some reasons to think that $250,000 is an underestimate, leading Hohman to conclude with:

“This might be the most government-supported car since the Trabant,” said Hohman, referring to the car produced by the former Communist state of East Germany.

Our philosopher kings, our superiors in every way, have decided and acted. You bitter clingers should just be thankful they are willing to lead us.

Read the whole thing, if you've got a strong stomach.

The Democratic War on Science

2011-12-21T20:33:00.001-05:00

It was a DNC throwaway talking point during the W administration to talk about the Republican war on science, implying that because Republicans didn't want to vivisect school children, they were opposed to any sort of intellectual advancement.

Here's a key, in case you haven't noticed: politicians always accuse each other of doing what they know they would do (or are actually doing at the moment) in the same circumstances. The classic example is when each party accuses the other of "playing politics". Of course they are, scooter, and so are you!

Borepatch links to Northern Blogger (2 cents) on an alarming use of the Obama Justice department to shut down research that might contradict ~~Global Warming~~ Climate ~~change~~ bad thing of the week.

Climategate II has taken a very chilling turn. One that to my mind raises far greater issues than the idiocy of AGW and the great hoodwink. The Obama administration's criminal division of the Justice Department sought and executed search warrants against Wordpress, the blogging software company that hosts several of the blogs where the anonymous "FOIA" posted a link to the zipfile that contained the second batch of incriminating emails from Mann and the boys. Worse, it participated in a physical raid and seizure at home of the blogger who goes by Jeff Id at NOconsensus.wordpress.com, where all of his computers and his router were taken. His was the first blog to upload the link, probably because he lives in a time zone five hours ahead of the others. He was assured that he was not a suspect, but they nonetheless had armed agents serve the warrant and seize the instruments of his blogging. Others whose files were ordered frozen at Wordpress were Steve McIntyre at ClimateAudit.org and Tallbloke’s Talkshop at tabloke.wordpress.com.

Borrowing more from Borepatch this time,

Why?

The most recent Climategate emails show clearly that the scientists were pressured by politicians to come out with more extreme results - to hype the Global Warming panic. The emails show that environmental activists were in positions of responsibility in the governments involved. They show that the World Bank was involved in writing parts of the IPCC reports - and even peer-reviewed articles published in Science and Nature (the most prestigious scientific journals).

In short, the global power elites were involved in the minutiae of the content of scientific journals, trying to make sure that the "science was settled" that we were in a crisis.

Why?

To add a little "value" of my own, back when he was at Fox, Glenn Beck did a full expose' on the Chicago Climate Exchange that was gearing up to trade papal indulgences, er, carbon credits. He called it Crime Incorporated, a name used for the mafia ("organized crime") in the past. The usual players were involved (Center for American Progress, the Apollo Alliance, and so on) and some new ones, Joel Rogers to name the big guy. It's not hard to find details but this place seems to hit the major points. After the Cap and Trade bill didn't make it through the congress, the CCX quietly reorganized.

The really important thing is this: the scheme of paying penance for carbon was estimated to be a $10 trillion dollar per year market that they were going to make up new from whole cloth. All of those principals, Goldman Sachs, Joel Rogers, main democratic donors like Soros, and lots of others, were set to skim "whole number percents" from that 10 Trillion dollars. You can bet large chunks of that payola was going to end up in DNC coffers by their behavior.

When a scam that big, a scam that required years of work to get established is threatened, do you expect them to pick up their ball and go home? Do you honestly think they're going to play nice? They're going to do anything, step on anyone, and I daresay kill anyone that needs to be gotten rid of so that they can make their billions. It is organized crime in every sense of the word.

Joel Rogers, of the University of Wisconsin. Go look up some of his talks to crowds. Not surprisingly (considering he's from Wisconsin) he appears to be a virulent communist dedicated to the destruction of the west - as long as it involves massive transfer of money into his pockets along the way.

Has The US Federal Reserve Moved to Nigeria?

2011-12-20T19:58:00.001-05:00

I got this incredible Nigerian-style letter in the mail. Sure seems like a scam. What do you think?

Federal Reserve Bank of America
33 Liberty Street,
New York, NY 10045.
Our Ref: FRB-75BFNYUS2011

Attention Honorable Beneficiary

Payment Release Instruction From Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Acting on our capacity as the international correspondent bank to the International Monetary Fund Organization, this is to officially notify you that we have received a confirmation advice from the International Monetary Funds External Auditors Committee, World Bank, United Nations Organization and the Federal Reserve Bank of America respectively via International Payment Voucher Number: IMF/FRBWDC/BOA-93WB82UN567-G requesting our bank to direct the HSBC BANK USA N.A, a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve Bank of America to disburse your due wining/inheritance and contract payment valued at Seven Million Three Hundred Thousand United States Dollars (US7.3M) in your favor via their branch in New York.

In consideration of the above, you have been issued with this Exclusive Reference Identification Number (IMF/FRB-NY/9USXX10751/09), Vide Transaction No.: WHA/EUR/202 and Transfer Allocation No.: FRB/X44/701LN/NYC/US, Password: 339331, Pin Code: 78569, Certificate of Merit No: 104, Release Code No: 0876; Immediate HSBC BANK USA N.A. Telex Confirmation No: -222568; Secret Code: XXTN014. Having received these vital payment numbers, you are instantly qualified to receive and confirm your payment within the next 72hrs. as necessary clearance has been granted from the International Monetary Funds External Auditors to release the funds to you with immediate effect.

In view of this directive received from the International Monetary Funds (IMF), we have on our own part verified your payment file as directed to us, and your name is next on the list of outstanding fund beneficiaries to receive their payment at this Third quarter of year 2011. With that being done, you are required to urgently contact the HSBC BANK USA N.A. in New York through their International Funds Release Supervisor:

Contact Person:NELSON ALEN.
(Head, Funds Release Supervisor)

And reconfirm your international payment voucher number and your reference identification number respectively before that office with a view to the final remittance approval and subsequent crediting of your bank account to the tune of funds as stated herein.

We wish to inform you of the need for you to also re-confirm the following information before the HSBC BANK USA N.A. in New York to enable the officer in-charge to proceed with the preliminary arrangements that will enhance the immediate release of your funds. Owing to security reasons, be clearly informed that we will not respond to any phone calls/general inquiries placed to our bank with regards to the remittance of your funds by beneficiaries as we are barred from doing so, you are therefore advised to communicate only with the accredited officer for further remittance advice.

1) Full Name:
2) Full Address;
3) Your contact telephone and fax number;
4) Your Age and Profession;
5) Copy of any valid form of your Identification;
6) Your Bank name;
7) Your Bank Address;
8) Account name and Number;
9) ABA/Routing Number;
10) Swift or Sort Code/IBAN;

Thank you for your anticipated co-operation.
TREAT AS URGENT.

DR HICK WHITE

TRANSFER DEPARTMENT.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

Maybe it really is the Fed. At the rate they're spending money, they've got to get something to back it with. Maybe it really is Zimbabwe Ben...

(from the lovely and talented JDA)

It's Insult Eric Holder Day!

2011-12-19T21:28:00.001-05:00

I'm sure you've seen the reports that Eric Holder, that pathetic, incompetent excuse for attorney general, has written an op ed for the NY Crimes saying the reason he's in trouble is bloggers? No Lawyers, Only Guns and Money ran a nice summary on this,

But Mr. Holder contended that many of his other critics — not only elected Republicans but also a broader universe of conservative commentators and bloggers — were instead playing “Washington gotcha” games, portraying them as frequently “conflating things, conveniently leaving some stuff out, construing things to make it seem not quite what it was” to paint him and other department figures in the worst possible light.

ooooh! It's the bloggers! Not his incompetence, or the insane plan to sell enough guns to the drug cartels to make it look like American gun stores were the problem, and get support for gun control. No siree. And not that, it's because ... wait for it... he's black!

Mr. Holder said he believed that a few — the “more extreme segment” — were motivated by animus against Mr. Obama and that he served as a stand-in for him. “This is a way to get at the president because of the way I can be identified with him,” he said, “both due to the nature of our relationship and, you know, the fact that we’re both African-American.”

(emphasis in the original blog)

I think Sean from the NC Gun Blog has the best summary in the comments:

So Holder was willing to cause the deaths of hundreds of Mexicans by selling arms to their killers. He did this in the hopes of drumming up support for gun control here. He decided that the deaths of a bunch of foreigners was the price he was willing to pay for a domestic agenda. He looked at the dead Mexicans as tools to get what he wanted.

I think I know who the racist is in this scenario, and it isn't us.

Listen, Mr. Holder, I don't know or care what gum ball machine you got your law degree out of, but you are a despicable human being. The only race that matters to me is the human race, and you discredit that in everything you do. You deserve not just impeachment, but a real grand jury investigation and, if things are truly the way they look, the same life imprisonment any common criminal would get.

Pollution and the Environmentalist

2011-12-18T22:17:00.000-05:00

Contrary to what they want you to believe, the greenies (or whatever you call the "environmental movement") are not at all opposed to pollution, they just don't want to have to look at it. In other words, it's not OK to drill for oil in North Dakota where you might expose Americans to a spill, but it is OK to drill for oil in Nigeria or Venezuela, where you'll only expose little brown people.

This is the biggest secret to understanding the greenies and it affects them all. They just want to feel good about themselves and feel superior to you; pollution is secondary. If the thing that makes them feel good actually generates more pollution than the alternative, that's alright, as long as they don't have to see it.

In today's Town Hall columns, Amy Oliver and Michael Sandoval write a great column on this topic, "Green Technology that Pollutes the Planet". Greenies just want to feel good about themselves?

The New York Times reported in 2007 that the number reason why people buy the Toyota Prius is “it makes a statement about me.”

They don't care that it helps the environment or saves the polar bears or snail darters, they care if it might impress total strangers with how wonderful they are.

And Mary Gatch of Charleston, S.C., explained, “’I felt like the Camry Hybrid was too subtle for the message I wanted to put out there…I wanted to have the biggest impact that I could, and the Prius puts out a clearer message.’”

While I believe that wanting to impress total strangers so badly you'd spend extra money for a car that probably isn't cost efficient for you is a sign of some underlying pathology, I wouldn't want it outlawed. It's just that the statement that they're trying to project is "I'm wonderful", but the one I'm receiving is "you're a neurotic asshole".

The article has a lot of thorough research into the facts and figures behind how much pollution is generated by the so-called green technologies, from the coal needed to charge a Prius' or Volt's batteries (which really is more hybrid than electric car), to the sulfuric acid, flue dust, and radioactive waste from rare earth metal production - used in the motors of electric cars.

Nissan Leaf - America's most popular coal-fired car.

It's a little long, but you should read the whole thing.

It's silly to have to say this, but I'm adamantly in favor of more efficient and lower environmental impact life - but the whole picture, the total life cycle costs of the products, not just something to say "I'm better than you because I care". I'm an engineer, and inefficiency bothers me; seeing more waste and pollution generated so that some neurotics can try to impress each other almost make me sick.

Sunburned

2011-12-17T22:08:00.000-05:00

You'd think that after living in Florida since I was three, I'd know to always have sunscreen and a hat, but no.... Went fishing this morning, and stayed out longer than anticipated. Sunburned arms, neck and head. It's not quite the shortest day of the year - that's still four days away - but it's within seconds of that amount of daylight. Only two or three hours in the sun did it.

Silly little trout ... that bucktail is almost as big as you are. Leave them alone - they're nothing but trouble. (Of course I released it).

I Just Want To Welcome My New Neighbors

2011-12-16T21:18:00.000-05:00

In case you missed it, Colt Manufacturing has announced they will be moving into an available building in Kissimmee, Florida next year. Since the building is vacant, moving in and starting up shouldn't be a problem, and they could be in production by this time next year. Colt's Press Release is more concise than I'll be, so:

Colt’s Manufacturing Company is pleased to announce that the company will continue its progressive momentum by opening a new facility in Kissimmee, Florida. The new 16,000 square foot facility will allow Colt’s Manufacturing Company to expand into new markets and business lines in parallel with the company’s existing 100,000 square foot facility in Connecticut. Specific information on facility renovations and employee requirements will be determined over the course of the next several months.

Welcome to the neighborhood, folks! They're not next door neighbors, but close enough to visit.

Kissimmee is about an hour's drive away from the castle. It adds another gun maker, certainly a legendary, historic company, to the state, the producer of many of the truly iconic guns in history. Also in the area are Kel Tec, closer, in Cocoa, and Scyy, farthest away in Daytona Beach. Sccy ("Sky") produces a couple of little polymer carry pistols that are sold widely around here; their founder is rumored to have left Kel Tec to go it on his own.

That's all I can think of, and ignores Taurus down in Miami. We need a Montana-style firearms independence law, here. We could be self-sufficient.

A Colt 1851 Navy Richards-Mason Conversion revolver from Antique Arms.

In the weird, wacky, wonderful world of the Internet, there's a chance a manager from Colt could come across this. Offers for tours are always welcome!

Maybe It's An Old Meme

2011-12-15T20:28:00.000-05:00

but they told me if I voted for John McCain, Camp Gitmo would be used for American citizens taken off the streets and made to "disappear". That American citizens would be accused of being terrorists or being accessories to terrorism and thrown in prison without due process and no recourse to a lawyer, judge or the legal system.

Turns out, they were right. (that link is to the regular Obama peg boys at CBS - but more here and here)

We Have a New Executioner

2011-12-14T21:34:00.000-05:00

On July 8, 2010, I wrote on the recess appointment of Dr. Donald Berwick to the head of Medicare/Medicaid Services, "Meet Your Executioner". I still think there's a lot of important information on the mindset of the administration and their plans for Obamacare in that piece. For one thing, Dr. Berwick voiced opinions that seem to express that supply and demand doesn't function in health care, claiming that the UK's National Health Service was better than ours.

You see, Dr. Berwick is a big fan of the British National Health System. That's novel because most of the British people are not fans of the NHS, and you have to go a long way (apparently, all the way to Harvard) to find someone who is in favor of it. In a speech marking the 60th birthday of the NHS, he praised the it for deliberately creating scarcity: "You [the NHS] plan the supply; you aim a bit low; historically, you prefer slightly too little of a technology or service to much too much and then you search for care bottlenecks and try to relieve them." In a time when the largest wave of retirees in US history hits the Medicare system, the fed.gov has cut the budget for the system by half a trillion dollars ($525 Billion). The only conclusion is that life will be worse for us than for those who were in the system before us. This is in complete agreement with the trend of this administration, which (as far as I can tell) is completely dedicated to making all of our lives more miserable.

Dr. Berwick has left his position - I can't truthfully tell you how much damage he has done, but this gentleman claiming to be Neurosurgeon called into Mark Levin's radio program, saying that under the new care guidelines, if a 70 year old presents in the ER with a bleeding brain, surgeons will not be "allowed" to try to save that person's life. In Berwick's place, the Obama administration has appointed Marilyn Tavenner, former head of the Hospital Corporation of America. Mrs. Tavenner is extremely unusual for an Obama appointee: she has worked in industry for most of her life - her background was as an ICU RN, not an academic like Berwick - and she actually appears competent. As you well know, such attributes are unheard of in this administration.

It is worth mentioning that part of her job is to clean up Medicare fraud, and she worked for HCA when it was under investigation for the largest Medicare fraud in US history. HCA ultimately paid a $1.5 billion fraud. As that American Spectator piece (previous link) says,

There is no indication that Tavenner was directly involvedin HCA's billing skullduggery. However, after the Berwickcontroversy, it's surprising that even the famously tone deaf Obamawould nominate someone with such problematic ties to the industryshe will regulate. These ties have also been ignored by most majormedia outlets, whose coverage of Tavenner has consisted primarilyof puff pieces focusing on her early years as a nurse. Thiscontrasts sharply with the coverage received by Republican RickScott, who was the CEO of HCA during the investigations. Scott wasnever implicated in the fraud scheme either. But it did happen onhis watch, and every "news" story written about him while he wasrunning for Governor of Florida insinuated that he was somehowinvolved in the fraud.

The important question is whether or not she's an upgrade from Donald Berwick,

There is no sign, however, that she holds different viewsthan her controversial predecessor. She spoke to the NationalAssociation of Medicaid Directors last month and echoed refrainsoften heard from Berwick. Her position on giving the states controlof their own Medicaid programs, which are funded by state as wellas federal funds, is virtually identical to that of the good doctor: "That approach wouldsimply dump the problem on states and force them to dump patients,benefits or make provider cuts or all the above." In reality itwon't necessarily force them to do any of these things. It would,however, allow the states to develop creative ways of covering thepoor, reduce administrative costs, and reduce the coercive power ofWashington over the states. One suspects that the last isTavenner's primary concern.

Tavenner wrote an op-ed for the Washington Examiner, full of the glib, hard to decode statements that bureaucrats make. I keep hearing from Washington how wonderful things are while every doctor I know says the cuts to Medicare patients are so great they are refusing new patients.

Is she an improvement over Donald Berwick? It would be hard not to be, but I don't see as much written by her and about her. It will take more research.

In the meantime, Mrs. Tavenner, folks would appreciate if you don't piss on us and tell us it's raining.

It's Not Just the NDAA - It's Happening Now

2011-12-13T22:26:00.000-05:00

There's a lot of talk about the current National Defense Authorization Act of 2011, NDAA, currently in House/Senate reconciliation. This is the bill that gives the administration the authority to use the Military to arrest and indefinitely detain American citizens on American soil. Retired US Marine 4-Star Generals Charles Krulak and Joseph Hoar wrote an opinion piece for the New York Times urging the president to veto this bill.

Some claim that this provision would merely codify existing practice. Current law empowers the military to detain people caught on the battlefield, but this provision would expand the battlefield to include the United States — and hand Osama bin Laden an unearned victory long after his well-earned demise.

With one small difference - use of the regular military - it's here now. Arctic Patriot wrote in "It Can't Happen Here" about a friend of a friend who has been arrested in an armed SWAT raid in front of his children, and wife, while staying at AP's friend's house. This man is being held in prison with no charges and no arrest and no prospect of release. AP's link is to Patriot's Lament, who writes "It Won't Happen in America - Yeah, Well It Just Did" (on Dec 6):

I have 8 children, all of them watching the scene unfold before their eyes. Dozens of agents wearing body armor and carrying machine guns, swarm around our house.
I think over my options, (there is only one, they kill kids) and I walk to the door, and yell loud enough for the thugs outside and my family inside to hear, "It's the FBI , don't be scared, just be quiet and sit down!" I open the door and am looking at Michael Anderson's wife. They have her in front of them, between us, and she is crying.

The last update to the story was this past Monday:

Michael had his hearing today, a week after his arrest. Still no charges. He was not released and no bail was allowed. He will be flown to Anchorage in cuffs and made to testify at a grand jury. He was promised, (insert very loud laughing here) that he will be released afterwards and will be free to go.

I don't see a whole lot of difference between being held without charges in a prison in Anchorage than in a prison in Gitmo. It's a chilling story, especially in the context of the NDAA containing wording that says if you have more than a seven days worth of food, or some amount of "weather proof" ammunition, you might be considered a terrorist, taken away and held without access to any legal way out.

I Like to Break My Leg!

2011-12-12T21:33:00.002-05:00

Those of you who aren't southerners might not have heard the expression "like to" in place of the more grammatically correct "almost" or "just about" with the past tense of the verb. In this case, "I like to break my leg" translates as "I just about broke my leg". One of my favorite stories comes from talking with a new hire from upstate New York (long ago, but not that far away) who said someone had come up to him and said, "I like to break to my leg". On his first job in the south, he had no idea what the guy was telling him. He didn't know if he should say, "my, what a strange hobby" or - if the guy had said, "I would like to break my leg" - he should have said, "help yourself, but try not to make a mess". Seeing the perplexed look on the new guy's face, the southerner said, "no, I like to break my leg over there" and showed the newbie a tripping hazard in his work area that the newbie should get fixed.

So yesterday, I like to break my leg. I was doing some work on a surface that was not very stable but fairly slippery and fell in such a way as to smash the middle of my left shin on the edge of a metal box. Almost instantly, it popped up to the size of a hamster under the skin on the front of my shin. While I thought it might be broken, by the time a few hours of ice packs, elevation, and compression were done with, I became convinced it wasn't anything that required a trip to the doc. It actually isn't that bad to walk on now.

But I have refreshed my understanding of another saying: "that's gonna leave a mark".

Newt Gingrich vs. Rosie O'Donnell

2011-12-11T15:13:00.001-05:00

(Rosie when captured in Rawalpindi by Pakistani police, 2003)

I'm not much of a fan of Newt Gringrich, but in a smackdown between Newt and Khalid Sheik O'Donnell, I'll go with the Newt every time. He may be a faux conservative, and a despicable human being, but he's the brightest guy on stage whenever those debates are going on.

H/T to the inimitable Frank at IMAO, for the story that in an interview on the closing Joy Behar show, Rosie suggested Newt should read a book. Srsly. Equally absurdly, she thinks he knows nothing about history.

Rosie, sweetie, I will take a $5 bet that Newt has written more books on history than you've read!

Edit: 1735 - Dang that typo monster...

The European Pinata is About to Split Open

2011-12-10T11:56:00.001-05:00

Over a year ago, I reported about a paper from giant French bank Societe Generale, that said their customers should prepare for global economic collapse. I don't expect you to remember that, but I point this out because they were downgraded by Moody's Friday, along with BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole, three of the biggest banks in France. Interestingly, Moody's said they took into account that these banks will probably receive "state support" (read that as "bail out with taxpayer money") if the situation worsens. I assume that means their situation is worse than the rating they were given, and without the prospect of free money, these banks would have been knocked down even more.

If you look around, the signs of imminent collapse are everywhere. The Telegraph is reporting that the whole Eurozone banking system in on the verge of collapse. You've seen mention of the runs on banks in Greece, right? Eurozone companies are closing - either going out of business outright, or moving offices into Germany and the few places with half a chance of surviving. Just a week ago Tuesday, I reported on an article that the UK foreign office was contingency planning how to get expats out of European countries and home, after the collapse.

You know, the whole MF Global thing in last night's post is an important part of the collapse, too. When Ann Barnhardt did her famous "going Galt" post, she talked at length about how the destruction of MF Global is not just screwing over customers and stealing their money, but destroying faith in free markets. Stock, commodity and other markets can't operate in a corrupt system - that's one reason there was never a giant Moscow stock exchange. They require faith in fair rules and a stable system.

The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy.

A side effect of MF Global is the destruction of the markets that are propping up what's left of the EU. The world economies are highly linked - you know you and I are paying for EU bailouts with our tax money through the IMF. It's not a conspiracy theory that the system was built as cold war Mutually Assured Economic Destruction. The EU does not go down without taking us with them.

Bottom line: the collapse of the Euro can not be stopped. This will lead to, at a minimum, a severe recession in this country, although I think that's optimistic and the chance of US economic collapse is very high - we're not exactly a wealthy nation, you know. I mentioned the GBTV interview with Jim Rogers that supports this belief before, and it's worth watching. Apparently, non-members can view the video because others have linked to it as well. It's in several segments, and I don't know that they're all viewable, but watch what you can.

Just Tuesday, I noted that while driving home, I heard Stuart Varney opine that this Friday (yesterday), they would pass some sort of financial austerity, and by Monday the streets of the European capitals would be burning. Well, Friday there was an agreement of sorts - an agreement to plan to make a plan. The DJIA reacted with a pop of 187 points. On Monday, we'll find if Varney got it all right and the streets of Europe are on fire.

Michael Ramirez, Investor's Business Daily/Townhall.com

John Corzine Channels Steve Martin

2011-12-09T20:11:00.001-05:00

Former US senator John Corzine was brought before the congress to testify about ~~his theft~~ the "loss" of a couple of billion dollars of his customer's money, and channeled a couple of old Steve Martin routines. First the "I forgot" routine.

You can be a millionaire.. and never pay taxes! You say.. "Steve.. how can I be a millionaire.. and never pay taxes?" First.. get a million dollars. Now.. you say, "Steve.. what do I say to the tax man when he comes to my door and says, 'You.. have never paid taxes'?" Two simple words. Two simple words in the English language: "I forgot!" How many times do we let ourselves get into terrible situations because we don't say "I forgot"? Let's say you're on trial for armed robbery. You say to the judge, "I forgot armed robbery was illegal." Let's suppose he says back to you, "You have committed a foul crime. you have stolen hundreds and thousands of dollars from people at random, and you say, 'I forgot'?" Two simple words: Excuuuuuse me!!"

While what Corzine wasn't exactly I forgot, it's in the same spirit.

The former head of Goldman Sachs said “I simply do not know where the money is or why the accounts haven’t been reconciled” before adding that as CEO of MF Global Holdings, he is ultimately responsible.

The "I don't know" reminds me of Steve Martin's old "Fred's Bank" routine

... you have to name a bank that ["Security First Trust and Federal Reserve."] because nobody's gonna put their money in "Fred's Bank." "Hi, I'm Fred, I have a bank. You got $1500? …ahhh, I'll put here … in my white suit." Steve Martin

I remember watching him frantically going back and forth, saying, "I'll put it here! No, wait... I'll put it here!!" before settling on his white suit pocket.

Associated Press adds,

Yet Corzine says he accepts responsibility for the firm's risky bets, and its customers' losses weigh on his mind "every day — every hour."

Poor baby! I bet there's a lot of people who would like to introduce him to things to weigh on his mind, like a Looney Tunes-style anvil dropped on his head.

Wars and Rumors of Wars

2011-12-08T17:36:00.001-05:00

I should have linked to this yesterday, but Bayou Renaissance Man, one of my daily reads, devoted his entire blogging effort for the day to the prospects of regional or global war breaking out within the next few months to a year. The takeaway conclusion:

I'd love to be proved an alarmist: but in the light of all the elements I've outlined above, I don't think I am. If there isn't at least one war in the nations and areas I've mentioned, within the next year, I'll eat crow right here on this blog, with all due contrition. However, I somehow don't think that will be necessary . . .

Down through history wars have been a last resort of the ruling classes to keep their jobs (and heads) when they destroyed economies. I'd like to know why we should expect different things this time.

Forecast for Tonight

2011-12-07T21:04:00.001-05:00

Forecast for tonight is Busy. Continued busy with a sudden drop off of in busyness accompanied by loss of consciousness later this evening.

Thursday will be busy with busyness increasing to fully occupied by the evening.

Busyness levels should return to normal by the weekend. In the interim, a little diversion.

(Lisa Benson at Town Hall - too right for comfort)

Cartoon of the Day

2011-12-06T20:56:00.001-05:00

The day was 11/30, but it's still good. From Wiley at NonSequitur who is frequently good for a grin.

Tomorrow is 9 days from when I posted the Financial Times article that the Eurozone has 9 Days Left. While it's still possible some event may force them over the edge, it looks like the "rumors of the EU's death are greatly exaggerated". A day or two after posting that, I heard that they've put off the big bank deal until December 19th, so the EU should survive till then. Over the weekend, I posted that Kyle Bass video that said the EU is going to collapse very soon, and there's no way out. While driving home today, I heard Stuart Varney opine that this Friday (the 9th), they would pass some sort of financial austerity, and by Monday the streets of the European capitals would be burning. Then tonight, Jim Rogers, the very successful and famous investor, was on Glenn Beck's GBTV show for most of an hour. He wouldn't give a date but talked about the coming collapse of the EU and how it will slam the entire world.

How do you know a time to be prepared for? The fact that there has to be an end to the exponential increases in spending is simply unavoidable. Math is math is math. That there will be a collapse may not be mathematically unavoidable, but the character of none of the people involved lead me to think a collapse will be avoided.

On the 4th, Borepatch, whom I respect tremendously, posted the question of whether folks in our corner of the world are being too pessimistic. As an engineer, I've always thought that reality is what it is, and I'm neither optimist nor pessimist but a realist. As a kid of 6th or 7th grade, someone tried the "is the glass half full or half empty?" bit on me, and I instinctively answered, "it's half a glass" and never told them what they wanted to hear. The way my mind worked, if water was being poured in, it's half full, if it was being poured out, it's half empty. Without that information, you can't know. (I wasn't much more normal at "if a tree falls in the forest..." either)

It seems obvious to me that those of us in the "gun culture 2.0" crowd, who war game out in our minds what steps to take if someone assaults us on the street or in our homes, and who invest in training and preparing for bad things; it seems we are the sort of people who will look at the broader world and prepare for bad times we see coming. Being metaphorically shot in the back by the Fed destroying our life's savings may not hurt as intensely as actually being shot in the back with live ammo, but it will be like that same amount of pain on the installment plan. The same pain, and probably the same mortality, spread out over years.

Jim Rogers also said that by 2020 America will essentially be gone. Life is going to be more expensive, and harder. He said food prices are going to skyrocket and then said it a few more times for emphasis. I remember saying once that no one would be more surprised than me if I turn around and it's 2020, and find we avoided the collapse; life is the same as it is in 2011 except I'm retired living a peaceful life in the land of liberty, playing by day and gradually working my way through antique Mountain House food.

Don't worry - you have lots of time.

(image from Preparedness Pro)

Obama Claims He's Pro-Israel

2011-12-05T20:41:00.001-05:00

I honestly don't remember if I laughed out loud at the idea or just shook my head in disbelief, but President Obama, head of probably the most virulently anti-Israel administration in US history, is campaigning on how good a friend he is to the beleaguered state.

I try not to pat myself too much on the back, but thisadministration has done more in terms of the security of the stateof Israel than any previous administration. And that's not just ouropinion, that's the opinion of the Israeli government.

As the author of that short American Spectator piece snarks, 'Anyone who publicly claims, "I try not to pat myself toomuch on the back," is precisely the sort of person who does so on adaily, if not hourly basis.'

It's not unusual for politicians to "run toward the center" when election time comes around, and try to convince the people they're really a moderate, but this is a new level of absurd.

David Horowitz and Front Page Magazine have prepared a video called "Obama - The Anti-Israel President". I link to the HD video rather than a mini-version to show here.

Pro-Israel? Srsly?? In just the last few days, Obama's ambassador to Belgium blamed Muslim antisemitism on Israel, Secretary of State Billary Clinton criticized women's rights in Israel; strangely, the only place in the mid-east where women are recognized as persons with all the same rights as men rather than being legally cattle and the property of men; and Secretary of Defense Leon "the Eyebrows" Panetta chastised Israel for not giving away more territory than they already have and told them to "get to the damned table!".

Few people ever mention that Hillary's closest aide is Egyptian-American Huma Abedin, who happens to be Anthony Weiner's wife.

Weiner is married to Huma Abedin, who works as a top aide to Clinton. Abedin, who once worked as an intern to Hillary, is close with both Bill Clinton and his wife.

A Clinton/Weiner connection is probably only good for a Beavis and Butthead chuckle, and the fact that Mrs. Weiner is from Egypt hardly worth mentioning. What is worth mentioning is that Huma Abedin's family is in the Muslim Brotherhood,

Furthermore, Huma Abedin's brother, Hassan, "is listed as a fellow and partner with a number of Muslim Brotherhood members." Hassan works at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies (OCIS) at Oxford University. The Egyptian Al-Azhar University, well-known for a curriculum that encourages extremism and terrorism, is active in establishing links with OCIS.

The American Thinker piece goes into far more detail than I can in this space, including activities of Huma's mother, so you should RTWT. There is more information on Front Page. I am concerned that a family with ties to the Brotherhood is in this high a position. For all I know, Mrs. Weiner is fiercely independent of her family and loves the US to death (hers, not ours); but I think the wise counsel of "trust but verify" goes well here.

After all, Muslim Brotherhood influence at the highest levels of the Obama administration (sorta like this Canadian communist says) would pretty much completely explain our abandonment of Israel, wouldn't it?

Got an Hour?

2011-12-03T22:31:00.001-05:00

You could find a much worse way to spend an hour than to listen to Kyle Bass at the AmeriCatalyst 2011 conference. H/T to WSRA for the link. There's a short summary at ZeroHedge.

Really worth watching - although you could just listen and not miss much. Bass is a hedge fund manager who made a lot of money betting the right way in the '08 crash, and is obviously the guru at this conference.

If he's right, the EU will go through its collapse this coming year, and money will flow toward the US - not because we're in good shape, we're just better off than they are. This will give our officials false optimism and make them think they're not stupid. The US collapse happens after that. He believes that war is certain, as has always been the case when economies teeter and fall.

Somewhere in there, he quotes an "administration official" telling him they are trying to destroy the dollar as a strategy - so we're not paranoid.

A Little Geeky Side Trip

2011-12-02T20:26:00.001-05:00

Alright, an extremely geeky side trip, but geek is in my charter. This is the kind of thing that just delights me.

Late in October, a group of amateur rocket makers launched Qu8K (pronounced Quake - after the video game) in an attempt to exceed 100,000 feet in altitude. The group's calculations showed they reached 120,000 feet, over 22 miles. This qualifies them for the $5000 Carmack 100kft micro prize, although since they had some troubles with their GPS locking during the flight, it's not clear they have applied.

Qu8K moments after liftoff. The acceleration is extremely fast - you have 4000 lbs. of thrust in a 320 lb vehicle. The vehicle reaches Mach 3 in seconds and coasts up to altitude.

Much more information at their web page, including a cool video that should be watched at full screen in HD mode.

There probably wasn't an equivalent rocket on Earth until the 1930s; today, a determined group can build one in their shop.

You Should Really Read...

2011-12-02T17:04:00.001-05:00

Last night, I was going to say you should really read this post by Kevin at the Smallest Minority, and I was going to say to watch the video. But Blogger was barfing last night and wouldn't let me post at all.

You know what? If you haven't read it, do so. It's that important.

'Scuse Me, I Have a Dead Horse to Beat

2011-11-30T21:08:00.001-05:00

A few odds and ends from the economatrix.

Peter over at Bayou Renaissance Man has an excellent coverage of today's announcement that the Fed will be "easing exchanges" with the ECB and other world central banks, allegedly until February 1. This ensures that you and I get to help pay for the bailout of the euro, which is bound to be just as productive as spending the money on hookers and cocaine, but without any stimulation for anyone putting out. This deal is one of the big reasons behind the 500 point jump in the DJIA today, and probably part of the increase in everything, as inflation gets priced in. He then follows up in the position of Economic Winner today with another great piece, The Fundamental Dishonesty of our Financial System.

The whole system is now built on lies. The lie that banks are solvent. The lie that the Federal Reserve actually cares about regulating the financial system. The lie that crimes will be punished. The lie that Congress will reform Wall Street. The lie that we’ll get “change” at the ballot box.

The piece includes information on how one of the most despicable humans on the planet, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (hawk, spit), gave hedge fund managers advanced notice that the Fed.gov was going to "rescue" Fannie Mae. For non-ruling class folks, that's called "insider trading" and punishable by hard time in the gray bar inn.

Over sandwiches and pasta salad, he delivered that information to a group of men capable of profiting from any disclosure.

....

“You just never ever do that as a government regulator -- transmit nonpublic market information to market participants,” says Black, who’s a former general counsel at the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco. “There were no legitimate reasons for those disclosures.”

RTWT

Despicable humans? I imagine you've heard by now that Gerald Celente of Trends Research was personally robbed by MF Global, John Corzine's little empire. Celente (whom I respect greatly) is, unfortunately, just one of many folks that the MF'ers at MF Global F'ed over. H/T to the Blaze, for this video of Joe Biden bragging about going to Corzine for his expertise. You can't overlook Corzine when you're looking for the worst of humanity.

And what do John Corzine and Hank Paulson have in common? They both ran Goldman Sachs. See The Fundamental Dishonesty of our Financial System.

QoTD - Proper Role of Government Edition

2011-11-30T20:59:00.001-05:00

"The basis of political economy is non–interference. The only safe ruleis found in the self–adjusting meter of demand and supply. Do not legislate.Meddle, and you snap the sinews with your sumptuary laws. Give no bounties:make equal laws: secure life and property, and you need not give alms.Open the doors of opportunity to talent and virtue, and they will do themselvesjustice, and property will not be in bad hands. In a free and just commonwealth,property rushes from the idle and imbecile, to the industrious, brave,and persevering."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

What Will The Collapse Look Like?

2011-11-29T20:36:00.001-05:00

This is a really hard question. I think the most accurate answer is nobody really knows. It seems reasonable to expect bank holidays, and mandatory limits on withdrawals. Add in travel restrictions to keep the common folks from fleeing their place in the fire for the frying pan of the UK or the US. The Telegraph reported over the weekend that the UK's Foreign Office is considering how to get ex-pats home. They anticipate riots and possibly thousands of UK citizens stranded without access to their money.

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

A friend in the UK (years ago) told me they referred to spending the new currency as "euronating". Perhaps we should borrow the term and refer to their troubles as the central state euronating on the currency ...

Edit 11/30 2100EST - that error-inserting gremlin was bothering me all day.

FT: The Eurozone Has 10 9 Days At Most

2011-11-28T19:50:00.001-05:00

The Financial Times is one of the preeminent business and economic publications in the world, so take it seriously when writer Wolfgang Munchau says the Eurozone has 10 9 Days At Most (the article says 10, but was datelined yesterday).

Last week, the crisis reached a new qualitative stage. With the spectacular flop of the German bond auction and the alarming rise in short-term rates in Spain and Italy, the government bond market across the eurozone has ceased to function.

Munchau goes on to describe what he thinks will fix the debt problem and it's ... wait for it... more debt! But not just any debt, special debt!

First, the European Central Bank must agree a backstop of some kind, either an unlimited guarantee of a maximum bond spread ...

The second measure is a firm timetable for a eurozone bond. ... What matters is that it will be a joint-and-several liability of credible size. The insanity of cross-border national guarantees must come to an end. They are not a solution to the crisis. Those guarantees are now the main crisis propagator.

The third decision is a fiscal union. This would involve a partial loss of national sovereignty, and the creation of a credible institutional framework to deal with fiscal policy, and hopefully wider economic policy issues as well. ...

....

I am hearing that there are exploratory talks about a compromise package comprising those three elements. If the European summit could reach a deal on December 9, its next scheduled meeting, the eurozone will survive. If not, it risks a violent collapse. Even then, there is still a risk of a long recession, possibly a depression. So even if the European Council was able to agree on such an improbably ambitious agenda, its leaders would have to continue to outdo themselves for months and years to come. (all italics added - GB)

The first problem is that many (I include myself) don't believe it is possible to fix the problems in EU-land even with the extraordinary measures Munchau talks about. You simply don't fix a debt problem by incurring more debt. Where does that "backstop of some kind" come from? Who's going to pay it? The second problem is more philosophical: just what kind of a state are they creating? There has already been " partial loss of national sovereignty" in Greece and Italy - we talked about this almost a month ago in "This Was the Week Democracy in Europe Died". They are creating a dictatorship run by the money changers; the central banks. The EU leadership is clearly working on creating a sort of pan-European socialist state and damn the people they squash doing so. After all, Mao killed around 70 million, right? Omelets: eggs, so be it.

The central banks have separated themselves from reality - and us - in this financial crisis. The Federal Reserve, our central bank, gave $7.7 Trillion dollars just by March of 2009 to the banks and not just US banks. That link (Business Insider) takes you to this piece on Bloomberg News:

The amount of money the central bank parceled out wassurprising even to Gary H. Stern, president of the FederalReserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009, who says he“wasn’t aware of the magnitude.” It dwarfed the TreasuryDepartment’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset ReliefProgram, or TARP. Add up guarantees and lending limits, and theFed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuingthe financial system, more than half the value of everythingproduced in the U.S. that year. (italics added - GB)

But where does the Federal Reserve, which is just a collection of private banks, get half of the GDP of the entire US?? This means the Fed is creating this money out of thin air. Banks have already made a pretty good profit off this money, over $13 Billion dollars - note that the graphic at the top shows foreign banks took part in this US Fed money giveaway; the Royal Bank of Scotland (which seems to be a non-US bank) earned an estimated $1.2 Billion from the Fed's handouts.

The fed now owns more US debt than China and is the number one holder of US bonds. Do you see why I often say that the US government is a wholy owned subsidiary of the Federal Reserve?

As of Sept 28th the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet lists $1.665 trillion in US Treasury securities compared to runner up China’s at $1.1483 trillion. In layman’s terms, that means that the Federal Reserve now owns the largest portion of the total US public debt (which is about $10.3 trillion out of the whole $15 trillion pie)

(source) Does this mean the US Federal Reserve will own the eurozone, when they're done bailing out the IMF, who bailed the eurozone out? Don't forget: our tax money goes to the IMF - the US is their biggest contributor - so you and I are paying for that nonsense in Europe. In return, the coming inflation that the central banks are creating is going to wipe our life's savings, which means we don't get to retire, which means the 40-somethings behind us don't get promotions and higher titles because we older guys are tying up the corner offices. Meanwhile, the entire generation behind them is having their dreams wiped out by their insane student loan debt which means they will not be able to pay for the entitlements that the retirees "are owed". The system is going to collapse because of what the central bankers are doing to save the system.

A couple of days of normalcy bias really was kinda sweet, I tell you what.

Normalcy Bias Feels Pretty Darned Good

2011-11-27T16:24:00.001-05:00

Normalcy bias is a pretty good way to get killed, generally speaking. The term refers to a very strong tendency for people to think that life will keep going more or less the same way as normal. It's why people in the World Trade Center, after the first plane struck, took the time to gather belongings and turn off their computers before leaving. The Survivors' Club, by Ben Sherwood, talks in great length about normalcy bias and how that one of the biggest things that separates those who survive disaster from the rest is that survivors considered that it could happen; they looked for the emergency exit on that plane, looked for the life preservers on their ferry, or considered what to do if an armed person tried to rob them at gunpoint. Hat tip to Western Rifle Shooters Association for a link to John Robb's Global Guerillas column on the Parable of the Happy Turkey for getting me thinking of Normalcy Bias.

In the morning, a nice man comes for a visit.
He puts food in your bowl.
The food is fresh and tasty.
The food is always in plentiful supply.
At night there's a warm place to sleep.
The next day, the process is repeated. The nice man visits, he feeds you, and you sleep comfortably. It repeats day after day.
You think: everything is right with the world. How could anything possibly go wrong? In fact, the only thing I really have to fear is getting hit by lightening when it rains or a the rare chance a fox might get under the wire and into the coop (which very seldom happens). The Turkeys that worry about this are pessimists.
One day, the nice man arrives.
The nice man grabs you.
He lays you across a stump, your neck exposed.
He raises an axe and cuts off your head.

The leap in Robb's article is to the 2008 financial collapse and how the "idiot savants at Goldman Sachs" put wunderkinds in charge of billions of dollars; 20-somethings (who were very smart, don't get me wrong) who could not anticipate the real risks because they didn't have enough experience in life to doubt their computer models. It's a perfect example of why you shouldn't put kids like that in charge of important things without a graybeard to say "what if?".

The normalcy bias, though, is pretty darned comfortable. I spent the weekend enjoying the sensation that this Thanksgiving weekend was a normal one, and probably not the last Thanksgiving of plenty I'll get to share with my family. I dare say it's why most of America is watching TV or fighting over $2 waffle makers.

(Graybrother bringing more food to the already-rich Thanksgiving table.)

But if you've been here before, you know that while I may occasionally look away or pretend things are normal, it's not a steady diet. Even troops on guard duty "take five" now and then. I will continue to look the coming disaster in its face and tell you what I see coming.

What's Need Got To Do With It?

2011-11-25T14:28:00.001-05:00

What's need go to do,
got to do with it?
What's need, but an
odd justification?
What's need got to do,
got to do with it? ~ with apologies to Tina Turner

So last weekend the fun show was in town again, the last until New Years, and we went up to see what there was to see. I found something I've been kind of looking for, for a while. A nice looking stainless .22LR revolver.

This is a Rossi M-511, apparently called the Sportsman. It's a six-shot, DA or SA with nice adjustable sights. The grips are not original equipment, but are nice target shooting grips. Clean, relatively free of scratches, scuffs or other marks. As Tam said the other day,

500 rounds in a day in a .45 will leave your hands feeling like you've been hitting a heavy bag. 500 rounds in a plastic nine will still leave you knowing that you've been shooting when you pick up your utensils at dinner that night. 500 rounds of .22 will have you asking "Is that all we brought? Who wants to run to WalMart for more?"

22LR pistols like the Walther P22, and the Sig Mosquito are very popular, and during the extreme ammo shortage of '09, I got a S&W 22A pistol - the reason for the "what's need got to do with it?" song parody. It's just a ton of fun to shoot - well balanced, aims very naturally for me, just a lot of fun. I set my targets back about as far as the range allows, and I could empty a box of 500. While the little Smith will shoot pretty much all brands of modern, supersonic 22LR ammo, I have come across some that won't cycle properly (some old Remington Thunderbolt lead RN an old timer sold me). I suspect that the revolver will be quite a bit less fussy with it, and even allow subsonic ammo. Hopefully we'll see on Sunday.

Obligatory Happy Thanksgiving Post

2011-11-24T19:57:00.001-05:00

It was a busy day here at Castle Graybeard. We finished replacing a shelf for the "Armageddon closet" (don't recall who invented that term...); I built it last weekend, and finished it with Polycrylic today. Put it in place and did a little Spyderco-assisted surgery on my thumb to remove the only big splinter. Watched football, smoked a turkey, replaced strings on my guitars, played a bit, and just enjoyed a quiet day with Mrs. Graybeard, and the delightfully crazy cats.

(Smoked a turkey? How big are the rolling papers? How do you light it?)

I am thankful for so much... despite the coming troubles, I am richly blessed here and now, and I know it. May all of you enjoy a wonderful day with your families and friends. Or by yourself, if that's your day. Thanks to the EMTs, Nurses, Doctors, LEOs, Firefighters and others who work today so we can have the day off. Thanks to the service men and women who keep the barbarians from the gates and give us the chance to relax. For now, eat, drink, be merry, and pray.

When Folks Talk About the FSA...

2011-11-23T20:28:00.001-05:00

Just because it's an army of non-productive folks dedicated to feeding off the productive (see "remora") doesn't mean the FSA won't expend any effort or money to feed. Especially if it's Other People's Money.

Several people have linked to Mike-istan's three part series on the coming nastiness, "Concord Bridge or Fort Sumter". If you haven't, it's worth reading. (part i) The paragraph that leapt off the page and slapped me between the eyes was this:

Here in Ohio we just had an election where the biggest issue was a referendum on repealing a pension reform package which would have just slightly slowed the gravy train for public employees. The public sector unions and their allies spent thirty million dollars to convince voters that asking state employees to contribute a few percent of their pay to fund their otherwise completely tax financed salary, benefit, and retirement packages, would leave the police helpless to stop crime, the fire departments without water, and death and destruction just around the corner. The rubes bought it and repealed the reforms by a two to one margin. (emphasis added - GB)

Since all the money public sector unions have comes from dues, which come in turn from wages paid by taxpayers, that's using the productive taxpayers' money to attack the productive taxpayers - it's almost perfect in its worthlessness; almost perfectly evil.

This has been the large, divisive issue that stands in the way of governments getting their finances straightened out: public sector unions that negotiate with politicians who have no stake in the negotiation. The politicians give big sweet deals to public sector unions - it's not their money that they're negotiating away, after all - and those unions turn around and contribute money to those politicians to keep the fleecing going. In my opinion, it will continue to get worse as we slide into worse and worse economic conditions. At this point, it seems to me that the most likely flash point into actual violence is here. We know that unions routinely commit violence against those they perceive as enemies; at some point, do they start punching out little old ladies at Tea Party rallies? After all, they got away with beating down Ken Gladney and routinely attack each other, why not taxpayers?

(A remora attaches itself to a shark or other large source of food with a tennis shoe-shaped suction area on the top of its head. This way it gets a free ride, does minimal work, and consumes a steady supply of crumbs when the shark eats. A perfect analogy for the AFSCME or SEIU public sector unions.)

How much improvement could have been made in the unions' retirement funds or health plans, if they had spent that 30 million dollars on their members instead of attacking the people who write their paychecks?

More Tales From the Over Regulated State - A Series

2011-11-22T20:30:00.001-05:00

Wherein tonight's installment can be called, "You can tune a piano but you can't tuna fish."

Carlos Rafael, by everything I can find, is an ethical small businessman who owns a small fleet of fishing boats, and attempts to navigate the waters of excessive federal regulations. Those waters are ending up far more treacherous than the waters offshore Cape Cod, where his business is based. I say he's an ethical fisherman because he purchased permits for 15 of his boats to allow them to take a giant bluefin tuna. Bluefins are ordinarily caught on hook and line after great amounts of effort - but his boats are bottom fishing boats that deploy nets. To catch a bluefin that way is a "once in a blue moon" event, as Rafael says. The story begins on November 12th:

Boat owner Rafael, a big player in the local fishing industry, was elated when the crew of his 76-foot steel dragger Apollo told him they had unwittingly captured a giant bluefin tuna in their trawl gear while fishing offshore.

Bluefins, you see, are highly valued in Japan as sushi; their flesh looks more like beef steak than just about any other fish and commands a very high price. "A 754pound specimen fetched a record price at a Tokyo auction in January this year, selling for nearly $396,000." The fish on Rafael's boat was estimated at more than a hundred pounds bigger than that fish. If I were him, my thoughts would be running along the lines of "Ca Ching!" over and over.

As the Cape Cod News reports:

However, when Rafael rolled down the dock in Provincetown there was an unexpected and unwelcome development. The authorities were waiting. Agents from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Law Enforcement informed him they were confiscating his fish — all 881 pounds of it.

Even though the catch had been declared and the boat had a tuna permit, the rules do not allow fishermen to catch bluefin tuna in a net.

“They said it had to be caught with rod and reel,” a frustrated Rafael said.“We didn't try to hide anything. We did everything by the book. Nobody ever told me we couldn't catch it with a net.”

In any case, after being towed for more than two hours in the net, the fish was already dead when the Apollo hauled back its gear, he said.

“What are we supposed to do?” he asked. “They said they were going to give me a warning,” Rafael said. “I think I'm going to surrender all my tuna permits now. What good are they if I can't catch them?”

The Feds, as always, told him he was expected to know that he could only use rod and reel. It's his responsibility to know every little piece of every regulation in the Federal bible. "Ignorance of the law is no excuse". What? There's no mens rea? That is so last century.

No charges have yet been filed in connection with the catch, but a written warning is anticipated, according to Christine Patrick, a public affairs specialist with NOAA who said the fish has been forfeited and will be sold on consignment overseas. Proceeds from the sale of the fish will be held in an account pending final resolution of the case, NOAA said. No information on the value of the fish was available Friday.

“The matter is still under investigation,”said Monica Allen, deputy director with NOAA Fisheries public affairs. “If it's determined that there has been a violation, the money will go into the asset forfeiture fund.”

I just love the passive voice. No person, no individual ever "determines if there has been a violation". Don't want any petty bureaucrat to attract attention for this, do we?

This is a serious issue, not just for Mr. Rafael, but for anyone who goes fishing. There are federal rules and state rules that don't usually say the same things. You are expected to know them all and be in compliance with them all or not go fishing. If you inadvertently catch the wrong type of fish or catch it in the wrong way, perhaps it's better to just dump the carcass at sea. Protein is never wasted in the sea.

100%

2011-11-21T20:17:00.001-05:00

A milestone in the history of our nation was reached about 8:30AM EST today, when our ever-increasing debt to GDP ratio exceeded 100%. Just over 2 years ago, Bill Gross of Pimco, the wizard of bonds, said our debt to GDP ratio could conceivably reach this level in "perhaps as quickly as five years". Most of us have seen the great visualization sequence at usdebt.kleptocracy.us, who gives us this image of the physical size of our debt: here is $15 trillion dollars, in stacked pallets of 100 dollar bills.

I want to show the following chart, a recent, but not up to the minute version of the data, which shows the growth of the debt in the last century. I like this format because the linear vertical scale clearly shows - with a minor hitch - exponential growth, and that's the fundamental problem (source is from January):

The exponential growth is the example of why this can't be fixed by increasing taxes; which is the equivalent of taking a bucket of water out of a swimming pool and dumping it in the other end. This is a spending problem. This is the death spike of a currency.

As I said last night, with a congress unwilling to make even 3% cuts in spending, this does not end well. But it does end - it has to - and probably fairly soon: it ends in months, not years. Infinity is a handy concept in math but not a good basis for economic policy.

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency involved. - Ludwig von Mises

Oh - that's right. An anonymous Keynesian commenter in October said that Austrian economics can't make predictions. Everything is fine. Just keep on with life. No need to store food or any of those fruitcake ideas you read about. You can trust our insect overlords to fix everything.

Fiddling While Rome Burns

2011-11-20T18:55:00.001-05:00

Remember the good old days when the enemies were foreign and not domestic? Sigh...

I'm sure you've seen that the news media has been abuzz this weekend about the Super Committee not being able to reach a deal. The Super Congress is supposed to reach a deal to decrease the deficit by $1.2 trillion dollars over the next decade. I'm sure you've heard the dire talk that if they don't make this meager change, the cuts will automatically come from defense and social programs. Predictably the two parties are blaming each other for the inability to cut this trivial amount out of the budget. Meager? Trivial? $1.2 Trillion? Sure: with no growth, just divided over 10 years that's $120 billion this year. Our revenue is about 2.2 Trillion so it's 5.5% of the revenue; but less than 3% of spending! Most people could handle a 3% cut in their spending if they had to, by tightening their belts enough, and probably have in the last year. The fed.gov probably looses that much without even noticing it.

The problem with this whole argument is that we need to cut spending by $1.2 trillion dollars this year, or over the next year or two at the most, not over the next decade. With the Federal Reserve making up money from nothing and buying our own debt, how much time do you think we have? Furthermore, I'll bet you almost anything that any deal they come up with will be back end loaded and cuts this year will be minimal to non-existent. All they ever do is kick the can down the road.

I would bet that if they don't come up with a way to cut this meager 3% of spending, that our credit ratings will be (deservedly) downgraded again. I bet that not making this cut will cause more harm than good as the world has it hammered home that the US is irresponsible and not credit-worthy.

I said fairly recently that I've seen Robert Kiyosaki talk about this a few times, and the most recent time I saw him (last week) he said he believes the dollar is going to collapse by next summer, with a fairly high degree of confidence. I don't know when this video was made but he's advocating the things I reported on in that first link.

Grub - you need food. Lots of food. It might take years for production to return. Think preparations that would put Mormons (1 year) to shame.
Ground - you need shelter, or someplace to go, especially if you're in a city or a place that's likely to descend into chaos.
Gold - for barter. Silver is just as valid. So are liquor, chocolate, cigarettes, and all the other things we've talked about.
Gas - fuel. Energy is life, whether it's for cooking or boiling rain water to drink.
Guns - and I'm really sure I don't need to explain this one!

I don't want to seem that I'm arguing by appeal to authority - but when someone as demonstrably optimistic as Kiyosaki is saying to prepare for bad times, that should be a wake up call. Look - the math is undeniable. Spending simply can't go on at the current rates.

If You Ever Needed Proof The EU Technocrats Are Insane

2011-11-19T21:00:00.001-05:00

How about the unelected Brussels technocrats banning claims that water can prevent dehydration. While there might be medical conditions that can cause dehydration no matter how much is consumed, this is completely insane.

Producers of bottled water are now forbidden by law from making the claim and will face a two-year jail sentence if they defy the edict, which comes into force in the UK next month.

Last night, critics claimed the EU was at odds with both science and common sense. Conservative MEP Roger Helmer said: “This is stupidity writ large.

“The euro is burning, the EU is falling apart and yet here they are: highly-paid, highly-pensioned officials worrying about the obvious qualities of water and trying to deny us the right to say what is patently true.

“If ever there were an episode which demonstrates the folly of the great European project then this is it.”

From the Telegraph. I'm torn on whether to post this one: it's so completely batshit insane it is either true EU bureaucrats or a satire. But isn't the fact that I can't tell partly the point?

A Weekend Time Sink

2011-11-19T13:09:00.001-05:00

Hat tip to Everyday No Days Off Gun Blog for this link to an amazing collection of WWII Photographs. I could easily spend hours there - just spent a half hour over lunch looking through a few of them. In what seems to be a publicity photo, a model poses with a B-17F nose bombardier's dome at Douglas Aircraft.

Well, I suppose I'm assuming the "Temporary" badge, nail polish, gold watch, rings, double photographer's lights and her general cleanliness indicate this is a carefully crafted picture. She might well be a worker at Douglas, but this was certainly not a case of a photographer walking in and taking a snapshot of someone at work.

A reminder of what many of our parents or grandparents went through to give us this nation being taken out from under us by the FSA.

Throw Them All Out

2011-11-18T20:44:00.001-05:00

Throw Them All Out is the title of a book by Peter Schweizer, which delves into the many ways the ruling class exploits their position, their "entitlement" to a better life than the voter-scum who elect them, and get filthy rich. The story in this book is the reason for the now-famous 60 Minutes story about Nancy Pelosi this past Sunday.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi bought stock in initial public offerings (IPOs) that earned hefty returns while she had access to insider information that would have been illegal for an average citizen to trade with – even though it’s perfectly legal for elected officials, CBS’s "60 Minutes" reported Sunday night. (emphasis added)

It is not illegal for members of congress to do things that would get any of us put in jail. For example, billionaire Martha Stewart spent time in federal prison for lying to the FBI over insider trading worth about $100,000. To put that in perspective, scale her billion dollar worth down to $100,000, and divide that insider trading $100,000 by the same amount and you'll find she spent five months in federal prison over the equivalent of $10 to a more normal income. In comparison, Nancy Pelosi in just the one case she was asked about on 60 Minutes benefited from insider information to the tune of $100,000, yet it was perfectly legal.

In an interview, Schweizer tells the story of the tumultuous days in 2008 before the TARP funds were allocated. A Newsweek interview puts it this way:

Republican Rep. Spencer Bachus, of Alabama... was known in the House as a guy who liked to play the market, and in fact he was pretty good at it; one year, he reported a capital gain in excess of $150,000 from his trading activities. More striking is that Bachus boldly carried forth his trading in the teeth of the impending financial collapse, the nightmarish dimensions of which he had learned about first-hand in confidential briefings from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. On Sept. 19, 2008, after attending two such briefings, Bachus bought options in an index fund (ProShares UltraShort QQQ) that effectively amounted to a bet that the market would fall. That is indeed what happened, and, on Sept. 23, Bachus sold his “short” options, purchased for $7,846, for more than $13,000—nearly doubling his investment in four days.

Around the time Congress and the Bush administration worked out a TARP bailout, Bachus made another options buy and again nearly doubled his money.

Again, if you or I did that, we'd be spending time behind bars with bad men, but for them, it's not illegal. Neither Bachus, nor Pelosi, nor Boehner, nor John Kerry or any of them violated any laws or ethics rules. Although Nancy might want to be behind bars with bad men - I don't know.

And that's just part of the problem. They also get rich on land deals, and the crony insider deals we already hear about. Solyndra and the rest of the green energy scandals are the system working backwards - they make other people rich in thanks for contributing to their campaigns.

In the wake of the story, Joe Lieberman and Scott Brown have introduced a bill into the Senate to make them live by the same rules we do. In the house, Louise Slaughter, and Tim Walz, have done the same. It seems likely to me that these bills will pick up additional sponsors but, of course, are in danger. Such bills have been introduced before and they've always been blocked - Brian Baird of Washington was the last one to seriously push this kind of legislation. They see no reason to have to live like the common people.

Throw Them All Out is non-partisan, as the "All" in the title implies. In the 1992 election, when Ross Perot's siphoning off of GOP votes gave Bill Clinton the presidency, there was a movement called THRO - Throw the Hypocritical Rascals Out. It appears to be growing legs again. Meanwhile, Borepatch has been saying this for a long time. If you haven't gotten the message, read it again.

$15 Trillion

2011-11-17T20:36:00.001-05:00

Yesterday, the US National Debt crossed the $15 Trillion dollar mark; more specifically, $15.0048 at the moment. The debt to GDP ratio is 100% as accurately as I believe such things can be known; the Debt Clock currently has it at 99.861%. By rough calculation, that will cross 100% before Thanksgiving. A more depressing and ominous piece of news is that the Federal Reserve has become the largest holder of US Bonds. In other words, we are creating money out of thin air (well, out of thin bits) so that we can loan the money to ourselves. Money that is backed by absolutely nothing and is worth exactly that - nothing.

In addition to that depressing number, add in $116.5 Trillion in unfunded liabilities. Unfunded means just that; it's money that has been promised out (Medicare, Social Security, Medicare Prescription Drug coverage...), but that has no funding behind it. Money is going to magically appear out of thin air, right when it's needed. Just like the magic Skittles.

I have posted on this topic many, many times, and I'm as tired of writing about as I'm sure most people are of hearing about it. It's hard to talk with those who are not good at math because they invariably say "why is it different now? You just hate Obama, you racist pig". So some highlights in brief:

Yes, deficits matter. We borrowed real money from real people both here and in foreign countries, and we promised to pay it back. They expect and deserve to be paid back with real money. So the rest of the world should just forget our debts, like the #OWS crowd thinks about student loans? Do you really think that? If so, can I borrow a few hundred thousand dollars till next week? If you inflate the dollar to worthlessness, don't you think the Chinese, Japanese and the rest of the world would be mad at us?
The government can't tax their way out of this. To heck with taxing the "richest 1%", if the government took every single penny from every billionaire, every millionaire and from every single person with an income of over $250,000, the money would be gone in under 200 days. In my opinion, the talk about "taxing the rich" they float is just to inflame class hatred and envy.
Hauser's Law may be a really counter-intuitive thing, but it has been true for a long time. No matter what tax rates are, the tax revenues are roughly 19% of GDP. We just can't spend more than that consistently.
No country with a Debt to GDP ratio much beyond ours has ever survived it as anything other than a walking corpse. Most have undergone economic collapse.
We borrow roughly 43 cents of every federal dollar we spend. If we truly intend to reduce that national debt, we not only need to cut out that 43 cents of spending, we need to run surpluses as far as the eye can see. Our great-grandchildren can think about deficit spending.
No one in government has proposed spending cuts like we really need. Ron Paul (as candidate, not Representative) has proposed shutting down whole departments of the fed.gov hydra. Rick Perry has proposed capping spending at Hauser's Law, which is more definitive about cutting spending.
It truly is the spending.

Most people don't understand exponentials. We are in a phase that is exploding toward infinity. It simply can't continue, that's mathematically impossible. Worse yet, large segments of society howl like they're being fed into a wood chipper if the fed.gov simply doesn't give them more every year, let alone actually cutting their free sh*t.

And this is why I think an economic collapse is inescapable. Right now, I'm leaning toward next summer, although all the pieces are in place such that it could happen any minute.

A Short Course on Why The Economy Was Going To Crap Anyway - Part 2

2011-11-16T19:50:00.001-05:00

Almost a year ago, I wrote the first piece on this topic. My point was that the economy was going to unavoidably slow down as we progressed into this century no matter what else happened. The two biggest reasons are the aging boomer population slowing their consumer spending, and the constant bubble-blowing of the central banks. Add to that the profligate government spending that comes as a result of politicians believing the good times can never end, or even slow down, and you have a case for an unavoidable crash.

One of the blogs I read that tends to have a high density of insights per inch is Sense of Events, hosted by Donald Sensing. Donald is a retired artillery officer who went to divinity school and became a Methodist minister; if that doesn't lead to broad perspectives the rest of his background will. Donald puts up an excellent summary, The long decline is just beginning which goes over some of the same things I do in that first piece and extends them. Donald talks about the wave of retiring baby boomers which is starting to come onshore, more like a 30 year tsunami than a wave.

Now, where is all the money to pay for our retirement centers, medical care and vacations in Costa Rica going to come from? It will come from the equity investments we made before we retired. In short, we are going to sell stocks, bonds and mutual funds like crazy starting very soon. And because each successive year adds millions more to the retired ranks, the selloff will accelerate every year into the late 2030s and almost certainly well into the '40s.

The plain fact is that tens of trillions of dollars are going to disappear from the value of the DJIA and other stock indices over the next 20-30 years. And with each year, as the selloff accelerates, the decline in equity-companies' market value will drop even more - because each successive year, boomers will sell more equities than the year before, both as a group and individually, just to stay even.

In fact, if the near-term retiring boomers cash out only $1,500 of equities per month, starting with zero retired boomers and adding about 360,000 every month, then in only six months more than $3 trillion of sold-share value will be reached.

Read this slowly: Three. Trillion. Dollars. Sold off every six months. That's in addition to the previous semiannual's sum. That's $18 trillion of equities sold in just the first 18 months. And it only goes much higher from there. Folks, we are looking at possibly hundreds of trillions of dollars of equity sales over boomers' retirement years.

There are two huge problems with this. First, the total world market's valuation is only $37 trillion. So boomers' simply cannot cash out enough equities to maintain their standard of living because there is literally not enough money in the world to do it, assuming that boomers need only about $1,500 of sold principal per month to make up a shortfall of dividends and interest. Even if you halve the figure, the numbers can't be sustained. (underlines added - SiGB)

Boomers were sold on the stock market on the advice that "over the long term, it has always gone up", and believed it will continue to. That investment (led by the 401k account) has provided a bonanza in capital for business expansions and start-ups; it helped fuel the tech bubble of the 90s, and that money helped fund the housing bubble of the 00s. It's a fair statement to say the major market indices will never recover to the levels of growth they had through the 20th century, even ignoring the 1990s, and that a massive economic slowdown is going to be the inescapable result. The 21st century is going to look nothing like the 20th century and that's a big reason.

If you're still in the stock market (WTF? why??), the old advice of "buy and hold" will be worse than useless. If you're a trader, it's still possible to make money in the market, because money can be made regardless of the direction of the overall market. There will likely always be good stocks to buy and bad stocks to short. But if you're under 50, don't buy into that advice to buy the general market and go long.

If you're approaching retirement, for this and a variety of other reasons, you probably don't get to retire unless you have well over a million saved.

True story: I've mentioned before I work for a big company. Like the majority of the herd, we do annual performance reviews, which is a comparison of goals you submitted a year ago, goals you were scheduled to meet, with what you actually accomplished. This year they asked us to submit a development plan. The first question was, "What do you picture yourself doing in three to five years?". In my mind, I wrote, "In the best case, I'm retired, living someplace with dark skies, on 10 acres I own free and clear, with plenty of recreational opportunities, playing to my heart's content. In the worst case, I'm crouched in the rubble that used to be my house, wearing a loincloth that some animal I killed was wearing, and defending my wife and I with a rifle. With two bullets saved for when all other options are gone". Then I decided not to submit the form until they tell me I have to.

Look Both Ways

2011-11-15T21:13:00.001-05:00

While everyone is talking about a European collapse I consistently find I'm the only one warning people that the Chinese are in trouble, too. Pretty much everyone talks about the Chinese coming here to collect on the bonds they're bought, by taking everything from our land to "our wimmin". I'm not going to sit here and say that's impossible. I ain't that foolish.

But the Shanghai market is on the verge of a big decision point. Within the next couple of weeks at most.

When these triangle (also called flag or pennant) patterns appear, the tracked data has to break out of it; there is simply no way it can't. Which way is it going to break? That's the bazillion dollar question. No one can answer that based on this chart. In the larger sense of what drives investment in the Shanghai market, capital from US and EU sources certainly flows into that picture. As EU wealth gets sucked up into the ponzi scheme to keep the EU alive, will there be any to look for opportunity in China? Same question about dollars?

When the EU collapses and the dollar follows, which way do you think it's going to go?

The simplest way to put it is, if no one has money to buy the cheap crap they produce, how will China have any growth?

On The Anniversary of Kristallnacht

2011-11-14T19:55:00.001-05:00

Well, not exactly the anniversary - the night after. If you're not familiar with the word, kristallnacht - literally "crystal night" but usually translated as "the night of broken glass" - was November 9, 1938. This was the night that Hitler's SS troops went through the country on a night of terrorism, a hint at the coming world war.

Known euphemistically as “Kristallnacht” (“Crystal Night”), this state-organized orgy of violence happened in peace time. It involved the systematic burning of hundreds of synagogues, the destruction of approximately 7,500 Jewish businesses, the murder of nearly 100 Jews and the deportation of another 30,000 male Jews to German concentration camps. (source)

Kristallnacht is important because:

It took the persecution of Jews from economic, political, and social to the physical with beatings, incarceration, and murder. It is often referred to as the beginning of the Holocaust.

This year, on Thursday, November 10, cars were torched, swastikas and anti-Jewish epithets were painted on cars, sidewalks and buildings. In Berlin? Damascus? No, in Brooklyn, New York City. Residents, including a few survivors of the holocaust, were understandably alarmed. While it certainly meets every definition of hate crime, it appears to be alcohol fueled: police reported many empty corona bottles in that area. Not that beer bottles could not have been dropped by anyone traversing the area. It is certainly tempting and easy to make this association:

Sandra Simone, a speech therapist at a nearby school, tied the attack to the ongoing Occupy Wall Street protests, where signs blaming Jews for the economic meltdown have been spotted from time to time.

But to me, it's simply a signpost on the road we're traveling as a country and a world. Not an exit; I'm not sure any exits are left on this road. Isolated event? Not at all. Antisemitism is rising. The old hatreds are returning.

Penn State

2011-11-13T14:27:00.001-05:00

(source)
I've been hesitant to say anything about this because I just don't feel comfortable with the story; it seems like there's something else going on. The behavior of all of the people involved seems so bizarre, I'm waiting for some other shoe to drop.

Nevertheless, there were riots the other night on the news JoePa was fired. Students - you ought to read a little about what's going on before you protest this. The way I see it, Joe Paterno ought to be in jail; or at least on house arrest. Same goes for the school president, Graham Spanier, who didn't report the rapes to police and the coaching assistant, McCreary, who stumbled across the rapist, Sandusky, in the midst of raping a child and did nothing.

I've thought about this a lot over the last several days, and I keep coming back to the conclusion that there's only a couple of appropriate responses to finding a rapist in the act, and they all involve firearms on brain stems - granted you may need to use a shovel or fire extinguisher if you're in a gun-free/victim-terrorization zone. If it was your son, your daughter, or wife, or mother; if it was you, what would you want the person who finds it to do?

OK, so McCreary proved himself to be a coward and just reported it to his boss, Paterno, the next day. Paterno, in turn, proved himself a coward and reported it to his boss. At some point, these cowards have another trigger point: if they don't see Sandusky taken away in cuffs within a few days to a week at most, they need to report it to the police themselves. Having not done that, they're accessories to child rape and need to be behind bars.

The inimitable Mike V. over at Sipsey Street did a great piece yesterday talking about when "The Institution" - the collective - becomes more important than mere individuals, this sort of thing happens. You've probably read it; if not go read. I can only say that the only possibility more revolting to explain what went on at Penn State is that the institution which Paterno, Spanier and the others are protecting is not Penn State, but a child sex slavery ring.

I never attended a college with a football team, but anyone who knows any thing at all about college sports knows about Joe Paterno. Truth be told, I've always respected him. No longer. At this point, he's among the most despicable people I know of.

Shotguns on brain stems. The only appropriate response.

British Aerospace Develops Cloaking Device

2011-11-12T16:03:00.001-05:00

No Romulans involved. It only works in the infrared, but cloaking technology took a good step forward with the Adaptiv system from BAE Systems, the descendent of British Aerospace and Marconi Electronic Systems. This is the type of technology that you can expect to see more of in the professional armies of the world.

From what I can tell, there's no new technology here, nothing depending on fundamentally new science; rather, it's just clever use of current technology. The system covers the object to be hidden with hexagonal tiles that can be set to specific temperatures, so that in the far IR, they can be set to look like either the background or a specific programmed shape. In that video, they make the tank look like a station wagon, for example. ("hey... what's a Volvo station wagon doing out here on the battlefield?")

To blend in with the background, each sensor panel can include a camera that observes the temperature of the environment on one side of the tank (over a small area), and the system then programs the pixels on the other side of the tank to those temperatures. The results is like looking through the solid object. Much like this clever guy did with his Halloween costume: using two iPad2 tablets on either side of his body. The combined cameras and videos allow you to see what's behind him, as if you're looking right through him.

Invisibility is a subject that gets a lot of university research. The technology to do this in visible light is very likely many years away, but imagine light-piping (fiber optics) an image from one side of a cloak to another, so that the objects on one side of you can be seen as if you weren't there. I expect the first uses will be to disguise soldiers from being seen from great distances; it will be a long time before you could stand near someone and not see them. Unless you're over 65.