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Saturday, January 31, 2026

Trying to keep up with the Weather Forecasts

The "bomb cyclone" that's affecting the SE USA is also hitting us here in Melbourne. It has been forecast to be cooling off by midday on the Weather Underground 10 day forecast around that long (10 days). It started out a bit higher in temperature and oscillated around that but has settled a bit lower over the last few days, as tomorrow morning's low dropped from 27 to 25.  I know that doesn't mean much without some of idea of what normal temperatures are like, so I copied some data from a .pdf handout that the National Weather Service has on their local website

Note this is a couple of years old and you can see nothing more recent than 2021 in the week I clipped out. You'll note the record lows for the 1st and 2nd are 32 and 33 respectively. Tomorrow's forecast of 25 is far below the record and Monday's low is forecast to be 28, compared to the record of 33. The lowest temperature ever recorded in a February isn't visible here: it's 27 on February 26, 1967. We look to break that record as well tomorrow, moving the coldest ever in February to the 1st.

 The Weather Underground Forecast just changed tonight's forecast to this:

 

There have been consistent forecasts for a small chance of snow flurries primarily on the Gulf Coast north of the Tampa Bay area, as well as farther north on the East coast. This is the first mention I've seen of snow in this area. 

As someone said, "Global warming... Is there nothing it can't do?" Dang... sarcasm again...


For those wondering, the SLS/Artemis Wet Dress Rehearsal started earlier at 8:00 PM EST or 0100 UTC.

Ahead of the first launch window for Artemis 2, which runs from Feb. 8 to Feb. 11, NASA will complete a mission countdown simulation to power on and fuel the Space Launch System rocket. Operators are expected to be called to stations about 49 hours ahead of a simulated T-0, currently scheduled for Monday, at 9 p.m. EST (0200 GMT, Feb. 3).



5 comments:

  1. "Bomb cyclone" is a stupid description for a weather event - in my opinion.

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    1. The reason for the name is to attract viewers. Like everything else TV comes up with. "Bomb cyclone? What the hell that?" Watch the channel a bit longer. Like when someone decided hurricanes have names, so why don't winter storms? Next thing you know, every cold front had to have a name. That's why we had things like "Winter Storm Ralph." (OK, I made that one up) https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2025-10-07-winter-storm-names-2025-2026

      Something like 40 or 50 years ago, I remember some storm developing quickly off North Carolina, and they said it underwent explosive decompression. Meaning it became a low pressure system, faster than usual. A dramatic name to attract attention.

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  2. Are Florida houses insulated? Will your pipes freeze?

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    1. First, our morning temperature - after sunrise - was 25. I can't recall exactly when the last time we had something like this come through, just some of the stuff I've done over the years. My guess would be most were in January, earlier in the month than this front. It has been years since we had temperatures like this at all, and never in February.

      Insulation is more common in the attic to keep the heat from coming in during the hotter months but our house has insulation between the concrete block walls and the drywall interior. It's thin and I doubt it could make much difference.

      There are always warnings to leave faucets running and I think over the years I've met a couple of people who said they know someone who didn't do that and had problems. I've never heard of anyone in our neighborhood having issues and the usual explanation is when they built the area they put the water lines deeper than most of the builders do.

      That said, I usually leave one running and I did that this time, too.

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  3. I remember the winter of 1977 on the gulf coast of Mississippi. Snow flurries on the beach, and me running around in shorts because it was only 30°F and I had spent the three previous years in central Missouri where we had snow that could be measure in feet each winter.

    If you're going to leave the faucets running to save the water pipes, you have to have enough flow to keep the pipe itself from reaching 0°F. Remember, river surfaces freeze, even fast flowing ones.

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