tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post4500222461556067885..comments2024-03-28T08:06:43.198-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: John P.A. Ioannidis Weighs in on COVID-19 ResponseSiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-73341828996690550752020-03-26T22:13:49.823-04:002020-03-26T22:13:49.823-04:00(cont.)
Then he lets off this corker:
"Yet if...(cont.)<br />Then he lets off this corker:<br />"<i>Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period.</i>"<br /><br />Hey, that's great: instead of all heart attack and trauma patients dying for 6 months, we could just let this go hog-wild, and only let them all die for three. Thanks a pantload, doc.<br /><br />Like I said, his analysis is correct, and it would have been nice to have 330M available test its for this, back around January 1st.<br />Now, we're already seeing this overwhelm actual medical systems, here in the U.S., and three months later, as this explodes week by week, long after social distancing could work, and after doing kabuki theater spot temperature screening on arriving passengers, for a virus that can incubate asymptomatically for 14 days, wishing for something the CDC screwed up on in January is about as effective as leaving your tooth under the pillow for the Tooth Fairy.<br /><br />Dr. Ioannidis should get out of the ivory tower more, and pull a few shifts a week at a San Franshitsco ER, just to keep in touch with reality.<br /><br />From where I sit, though, he's done a splendid job of addressing the missing lock on the barn door, some months after the horse got out.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-20521312347343172772020-03-26T22:13:29.565-04:002020-03-26T22:13:29.565-04:00Sorry to disappoint you, Angus, but yes, I did.
I...Sorry to disappoint you, Angus, but yes, I did.<br /><br />Including to pick out deliberate falsehoods like this one by Ioannidis in ¶7:<br />"<i>The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers</i>."<br /><br />Except it wasn't entire, nor closed, because he (and we) know that<br />1) Japanese "quarantine" personnel were going from room to room to interview potential infected passengers and crew with no PPE, and<br />2) The Japanese authorities were pulling people off the <i>MV Death Princess</i> the minute they became symptomatic. Which is exactly like scraping bacterium off an agar culture plate the minute you can see it, and then seeing and reporting on how much an infection didn't grow.<br /><br />Thus the system population was neither entire, nor closed, and any information collected is less than worthless with that level of finger-banging and scale-thumbing.<br /><br />There's no excuse for not calling that out for the obvious asininity involved, least of all by someone with his epidemiological credentials. This is the sort of ascientific advocacy horse-puckey that gets Globull Warmist papers laughed out of the room.<br /><br />If this is the level of expertise he's bringing, he makes the Mueller Report look careful and well-planned by contrast.<br />(cont.)Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-42148878036060235152020-03-26T01:29:27.975-04:002020-03-26T01:29:27.975-04:00You didn't actually read that linked article.You didn't actually read that linked article.Angus McThaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09295013525738248801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-15898462880245452742020-03-25T22:20:32.159-04:002020-03-25T22:20:32.159-04:00He's correct, but also 4 months too late to ma...He's correct, but also 4 months too late to matter.<br />His report is the sort of thing Churchill would stamp "OBE": Overtaken By Events.<br /><br />Yes, it would be beyond nice to have a point-of-care test for Kung Flu that returned reults in 15 minutes, <i>like we already have for flu</i>, but unfortunately, the CDC <b>only had one job</b>, and as usual, the federal agency most overloaded with Gilligans (after the TSA, BATFE, and FBI) came through as expected.<br /><br />They had no tests at all for two months, and we blew through all available tests in a week.<br /><br />Play with stupid agencies, win stupid prizes.<br /><br />This is what it is, and it's about three months too late to tell us now what we shoulda/coulda/woulda had back <i>then</i>.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.com