tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post5419787854198270806..comments2024-03-28T08:06:43.198-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: The Fed's Plan to Bankrupt You and MeSiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-28647710803141517692012-02-14T22:16:42.941-05:002012-02-14T22:16:42.941-05:00Over the long term, I think the stock market is go...Over the long term, I think the stock market is going to be dismal, with negative real returns as far as I can see. I base that on <a href="http://thesilicongraybeard.blogspot.com/2011/11/short-course-on-why-economy-was-going.html" rel="nofollow">post</a> which came from a post <a href="http://senseofevents.blogspot.com/2011/11/long-decline-is-just-beginning.html" rel="nofollow">Donald Sensing</a> had up. <br /><br />Simply put, too many people trying to sell stocks to live on post-retirement. The amount to be sold appears to be about three times the world market up to now. Not a recipe for a rising tide. <br /><br />Hate to be such a downer...SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-33593655939570866682012-02-14T21:59:15.600-05:002012-02-14T21:59:15.600-05:00I don't believe that the market has regained t...I don't believe that the market has regained the value it had prior to the crash; any perceived rise is almost certainly heavily buoyed by inflation. That said, over the even longer haul - say those 35 years that I'm looking at as a 29 year old - one would still normally expect the market to correct and achieve the ~8% average annual growth benchmark gurus are fond of assuming. It seems like it ought to persist unless things are well and truly broken - certainly a real possibility.<br /><br />Is there a financial equivalent to the RKBA saying about how if it's time to bury your guns, it's already time to dig them up again? There should be.Xenoclesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-81909798050382705222012-02-14T19:39:57.108-05:002012-02-14T19:39:57.108-05:00That's the common view, sort of "a rising...That's the common view, sort of "a rising tide lifts all boats". The problem is that you can't grow any wealth. If you're 30 now and looking to retire in 35 years or so, you can't put your entire pay away. You put aside a portion and expect it to grow with compound interest - or going along with an Index fund in the stock market. <br /><br />The problem is that it doesn't seem to. The market doesn't seem to keep pace with the devaluation of the dollar. The Dow has been in the 12,800 region for a while now, and <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838421/" rel="nofollow">breathless commentators</a> say it hasn't been that high since (don't remember - say 2005?) The problem is that $12,800 today is worth less than $12,800 in 2005, by a substantial amount. I know the official currency destruction rate - sorry, official inflation rate - is only around 3%, but the actual inflation rate is quite a bit higher. If the inflation since then has been a total of 10% - less than 3% per year - today's Dow is worth 12,800 -1280 or $11,520. If you left money in the market, you've lost wealth through inflation. BTW, I think inflation has been closer to 10% <b>per year</b>. <br /><br />I wrote about some of this <a href="http://thesilicongraybeard.blogspot.com/2011/12/could-us-return-to-gold-standard.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-46073610118537985882012-02-14T18:13:35.616-05:002012-02-14T18:13:35.616-05:00If you're investing for retirement rather than...If you're investing for retirement rather than simply saving, wouldn't you expect the price of your assets to generally rise with inflation (as varied by gain/loss)? Obviously it would wipe out savings accounts over the long term, but I don't think anything should be in a savings account for longer than a few years anyway except for an emergency fund.Xenoclesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-279175885588382132012-02-13T23:39:15.433-05:002012-02-13T23:39:15.433-05:00These were 401(k) plans from previous employers. M...These were 401(k) plans from previous employers. My current employer matches up to 4%, so that's what I'm signed up for.<br />I have my investments in the precious metals market at the present time, and while it's not skyrocketing, it's showing more gains than any of their other funds. I'm seriously considering retiring next summer when I turn 62, and going to work for them as a contractor. A couple of the other guys I used to work there with are doing that. This is a company that recently came out of Chapter 11, and we all worked there before.drjimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05647484115197408897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-60687069502491586092012-02-13T21:48:33.314-05:002012-02-13T21:48:33.314-05:00Getting out of the 401k is a smart thing to do if ...Getting out of the 401k is a smart thing to do if your account doesn't allow you to put money where you'd like to. You will loose company matching funds, so add that to the yield you'd need to achieve. But it's pretty unlikely you'd get a yield greater than the real inflation rate in a 401k.SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-64317384425515975522012-02-13T21:14:16.160-05:002012-02-13T21:14:16.160-05:00Yep, 0bama said he wanted fundamental change, and ...Yep, 0bama said he wanted fundamental change, and he's working his damnedest to do it!<br />Middle class? Oh, you mean the new "Serf Class"!<br />Although focused on the housing bubble, one of my favorite blogs, http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/ has been discussing the economy in general, and how it's being manipulated.<br />I liquidated my 401(k) plans as soon as I hit 59-1/2, and could do it with no penalty. I'd rather have my money in junk silver, or the trio of "copper, lead, and brass", than in a 401(k)!drjimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05647484115197408897noreply@blogger.com