tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post5601953302998029720..comments2024-03-28T08:06:43.198-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: Is SpaceX Really In Trouble?SiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-65319760891950541262021-12-04T12:27:18.468-05:002021-12-04T12:27:18.468-05:00Thermal nuclear would do. I think the NERVA got an...Thermal nuclear would do. I think the NERVA got an Isp around 900. <br />we could all use a few more "sunshine units".Old Surferhttp://wavewitch.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-74851533759408187122021-12-04T04:08:56.194-05:002021-12-04T04:08:56.194-05:00While I'm sure it can be done, the question is...While I'm sure it can be done, the question is what timeframe and at what cost? I'm surprised that a large rocket engine is down to $1 million. I suspect it will take quite a while to get down to $250k, especially if it's reusable also.<br />I've always felt that space travel won't really take off and be truly affordable until there is a revolution in engine technology similar to ships moving from sails to steam. Jonathan Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10476185257203343474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-1186870574701470732021-12-03T12:25:42.215-05:002021-12-03T12:25:42.215-05:00everybody may go Ohh! at the figure $10,000,000,00...everybody may go Ohh! at the figure $10,000,000,000.00, but, unless my higher math has degenerated that badly, I figure that to be less than $35 per person. (I'm talking about direct donation/investment; not going through the gubbmint where first this one extracts his/her 10% for his non-sevices, ad inf.)<br />I'd gladly invest a figure many times that amount with any company he may set up for this purpose.boronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05780356895910449471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-42098100820290470012021-12-03T10:46:27.718-05:002021-12-03T10:46:27.718-05:00You know, I was recently reading Asimov's foun...You know, I was recently reading Asimov's foundation novel again (earliest was in childhood where I didn't really get the subtleties.) Not to the mule part yet.<br /><br />Holy crap, the entire plot is like some kind of long-form trolling. I feel like reaching through the pages and throttling Harry Seldon, who is arguably the biggest villain in the setting. Yeah, you've plotted to force people into situations where there is only one choice to make among horrible apparent choices, because if you didn't your *pretend omniscience would fail* and other people's will than your own would start to matter. How does he know that the outcome of a galaxy full of free agents would be worse if that free agency *prevents him from making predictions*. How does the individual agency not matter if his does, and why is it such a threat that it must be prevented at all costs in everyone else?<br /><br />Psychohistory is a mind-screw cult. I'm reading the book almost entirely differently than I did the first time around.<br /><br />MadRocketSciAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-54472067740150106012021-12-03T08:15:35.152-05:002021-12-03T08:15:35.152-05:00I don't think there's any other way. Spac...I don't think there's any other way. Space travel is hard because space is unforgiving. <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-68285293133100795122021-12-03T07:26:55.071-05:002021-12-03T07:26:55.071-05:00The Kansas motto strikes again?
FrankThe Kansas motto strikes again?<br />FrankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-36517906337712097532021-12-02T23:52:01.293-05:002021-12-02T23:52:01.293-05:00Amazing coverage this week - thank you, SiG. Best...Amazing coverage this week - thank you, SiG. Best coverage on the 'net.John Wilderhttp://wilderwealthywise.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-44203056751086589672021-12-02T23:49:17.504-05:002021-12-02T23:49:17.504-05:00Until SpaceX actually says what the issue with the...Until SpaceX actually says what the issue with the Raptors are, none of us will be able to understand what the issue is. Sounds simple, but...<br /><br />I'm sure Musk spent the weekend putting his foot up some people's arses, but mostly making positive changes. Hopefully.<br /><br />I'm wondering if the issue revolves around what Musk said about the next-gen Raptor, which he says probably won't be called Raptor. Though if any company can rapidly iterate itself out of the current Raptor hole, it's SpaceX.<br /><br />Eagerly anticipating the next update so we can find out what is going on.<br /><br />Meanwhile, over at BO, the sound of tranquilized crickets...Beanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15293778848879361153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-9428475929073803792021-12-02T23:11:18.062-05:002021-12-02T23:11:18.062-05:00I'll just say it now; I have long thought of M...I'll just say it now; I have long thought of Musk as the mule from Asimov's Foundation.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15452530649659364201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-76076883512351516232021-12-02T22:59:28.963-05:002021-12-02T22:59:28.963-05:00I see I wasn't clear that the Falcon Heavy'...I see I wasn't clear that the Falcon Heavy's 27 engines are not Raptors, they're Merlins. SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-50652713441949016922021-12-02T22:58:36.798-05:002021-12-02T22:58:36.798-05:00Understood. The Starship booster at liftoff will ...Understood. The Starship booster at liftoff will have 29 Raptors. A Falcon Heavy has 27. Granted, being spread out over a wider area has different implications for the nonlinear phenomena like turbulence from all those engines in one 9 meter diameter housing rather than being spread across three boosters, but I think the control issues are probably are taken care of. (I constantly see people comparing Starship/Super Heavy to the old Soviet N1 with 30 engines, but I think the ability to control things is better today.) <br /><br />The bottom line is exactly what you say. They have to try it and they're very much a modern, hi-tech company in the mold of build it, test it until it fails and fix it.<br /><br />Unfortunately, I don't see any information on what the problems with the Raptors actually are. They have swapped a lot of them out during Starship development, and I'd sure like to see that go away. If one or two out of three consistently have trouble, they'll never get 29 to work at once. <br /> SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-71454744376946699672021-12-02T22:29:44.045-05:002021-12-02T22:29:44.045-05:00Worrisome.
I've always been a bit concerned ...Worrisome. <br /><br />I've always been a bit concerned about Starship: It's not an orbital vehicle without the booster, and the booster hasn't been flown yet. It's another extremely small structural-mass-fraction rocket, on a scale they haven't built before, with more engines attached simultaneously than they've tried before. The vibration problems might be significant.<br /><br />You have to try it to succeed, but it seems like the sort of thing there will be failures at along the way. Unlike Bezos, Musk doesn't have infinite money.<br /><br />We've printed something like $20 trillion dollars (something like $70k for every man/woman/child) to basically loot the dollar-denominated savings of the world and hand it to a corrupt class of aristocrats and tyrants. SpaceX is trying to earn its money, and might end up failing at something productive and world changing.<br /><br />MadRocketSciAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com