tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post679864045996191353..comments2024-03-28T08:06:43.198-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: Today Ended the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonSiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-79368732373387197672017-12-01T09:52:40.252-05:002017-12-01T09:52:40.252-05:00My bet is that it's fundamentally unpredictabl...My bet is that it's fundamentally unpredictable. Back when (mathematical) chaos was first being discussed, it was described as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions". Tiny differences in measured temperatures, pressures and so on make the system "blow up" and refuse to converge. <br /><br />There are big research groups here in the US, the UK and elsewhere that make elaborate models of the weather to predict hurricane paths. You can look at those model ensembles at any time; sometimes the tracks are close, sometimes they're not, but there's always some model (or two) that's extremely different from the others. <br /><br />Which says it doesn't matter what supercomputers they throw at it. What they need, if anything, is a finer resolution dataset. Higher precision measurements and more of them. <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-85554805340781110822017-12-01T09:38:00.987-05:002017-12-01T09:38:00.987-05:00Given the supercomputers, the multitude of models,...Given the supercomputers, the multitude of models, and the years of refinement of those models, I agree that the inability to make accurate predictions is puzzling. It implies that the models are missing some key factor. One would think that every environmental factor is already included, so what are they missing? Is it a man-made factor such as HAARP, Chem-trails, or other weather modification experiments? I try not to get caught up in tinfoil hat stuff, but the lack of accuracy in predictions of hurricanes and everyday local weather forecasts is more than puzzling.<br /><br />-RocketmanKarl Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-62524741313856112052017-12-01T08:29:54.183-05:002017-12-01T08:29:54.183-05:00That's a tough question because it's remot...That's a tough question because it's remote and I don't speak any of the languages there. The questions here come from blogs and people with personal weather stations. The way to answer that would be to talk with those people or read their blogs in Japan or the Philippines. <br /><br />I don't know of any official viewpoint that questions our NHS forecasts, just us crank bloggers. It may be buried in the fine print of what the NHS says, but it's just my experience that these forecasts don't seem any more accurate than any other weather forecasts. <br /> <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-11137434018557543172017-12-01T07:46:07.272-05:002017-12-01T07:46:07.272-05:00Are the paths and intensities of Pacific typhoons ...Are the paths and intensities of Pacific typhoons being forecast with greater accuracy?<br />Again focusing on the Pacific, are the countries that have high risk from storms using computer models that are getting better results than the models used by NOAA? Japan would spring to mind.John in Phillyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16196033252818387245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-89302077128731412522017-11-30T22:18:24.304-05:002017-11-30T22:18:24.304-05:00... 0.6 degC 100 years from now When the error ba...<i>... 0.6 degC 100 years from now</i> When the error bars are several times the predicted increase. The answer is "of course you can't", but you knew that. <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-86658961561408962352017-11-30T22:03:16.759-05:002017-11-30T22:03:16.759-05:00This begs a more important question: If they miss ...This begs a more important question: If they miss a storm's intensity or location by a large margin just 48 hours out, how can I trust the same agency to predict world climate to resolution of 0.6 degC 100 years from now?Divemedichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14583007051962299381noreply@blogger.com