tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post8021070798837483360..comments2024-03-28T08:06:43.198-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: Solar Cycle Update - We Seem to Have Begun Cycle 25SiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-50890394062499874572020-04-23T22:07:03.702-04:002020-04-23T22:07:03.702-04:00I get emails from the space weather blog and they ...I get emails from the space weather blog and they said a new cycle started a couple of months ago and confirmed it by the polarity change.indyjonesoutherenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-86153620394998255662020-04-23T20:57:47.411-04:002020-04-23T20:57:47.411-04:00See this link that covers the sunspot cycle for Ma...See this link <a href="https://i1.wp.com/electroverse.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/modern-minimum.png?ssl=1" rel="nofollow">that covers the sunspot cycle for Maunder Minimum to the Eddy Minimum.</a>Zendo Debhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00094772654735415974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-80054468249671633842020-04-23T10:34:04.103-04:002020-04-23T10:34:04.103-04:00Predicting the next solar cycle has gotten past th...Predicting the next solar cycle has gotten past the reading tea leaves stage. Everyone is trying to predict based on magnetic measurements and space-based sensors for UV and solar wind. Dr. Zhakarov's method was to characterize the changes over time in the solar dynamo (magnetic field changes, which alternate north/south every solar cycle) and do a Fourier analysis to generate functions describing the changes vs. time, then plot it backward and forward in time. She started out with two principle components and got good agreement with the record as far as we have data. Things like the Maunder minimum, the little ice age and the modern maximum were easily seen. Then she refined the model to four principle components.<br /><br />Using this method, hers was one of only two models that correctly predicted solar cycle 24 would be weaker than cycle 23 - two out of 150 models. Her models say that events like the little ice age occur on regular cycles of about 350-400 years, and that cycle 26 (roughly 2031 through 2042?) will be the end of the "modern maximum." After 2050 the sun goes back to more like 20th century levels so if we have a little ice age it won't be as long as the last one. I hope to live long enough to see that. <br /><br />As with all science, if it doesn't accurately predict it's not worth much. <br /><br />Unlike, say, climate scientists, she puts her algorithms and data out front for serious peer review. She says emphatically and repeatedly that she's not a climate scientist, she's a solar physicist. Which is like saying, "I'm not a climate scientist, I'm a real scientist." <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-85075478844280807142020-04-23T01:08:34.896-04:002020-04-23T01:08:34.896-04:00New cycle spots appear in a different place than o...New cycle spots appear in a different place than older cycle spots.<br /><br />That's a vague recollection from a decades ago Astronomy class.Angus McThaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09295013525738248801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-89192313140728129122020-04-22T23:49:02.898-04:002020-04-22T23:49:02.898-04:00SiG follows this closer than I do these days, but ...SiG follows this closer than I do these days, but there are definite, quantifiable signs of when a new cycle starts. Predictions of future activity are still pretty much a chicken bone toss AFAIC, but since the new cycle has started we can look back and compare the duration of this minimum to previous ones, and simple arithmetic gives the number of days. I haven't looked closely to see how this recently ended minimum compares to others. If no "new" spots had appeared, then we might be entering uncharted territory.<br /><br />I'm sure Sig can state this better than I can.....drjimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05647484115197408897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-73617311934468920862020-04-22T23:09:44.185-04:002020-04-22T23:09:44.185-04:00Break it down for me. I know what many are saying ...Break it down for me. I know what many are saying about the extended solar minimum but where is the science? What does it really mean? Or are we in uncharted (sure there IS a chart, but you know what I mean) territory?LLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05538854359365988863noreply@blogger.com