tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post8102216825016837218..comments2024-03-18T23:24:35.194-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: Solar Study Shows Best Predictions for The Next Maunder Minimum SiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-15280475286462208532016-12-20T11:30:43.361-05:002016-12-20T11:30:43.361-05:00Interesting reading for sure. If I understand the...Interesting reading for sure. If I understand the way they do that work, they take something in the ice as a proxy for SSN (sunspot number) - I think the concentration of a radioactive isotope. The isotope concentration varies with the amount of cosmic rays. Not only has it been shown that the lower the solar activity the deeper cosmic ray particles (typically alpha particles, Helium nuclei) penetrate into the atmosphere, there's a theory that the deeper penetration is what causes the climate change by changing the amount of cloud formation. Each step can be verified experimentally, and the kicker is that the computer models the climate modelers use can't model clouds.<br /><br />Thanks and Merry Christmas Irish. <br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-17895387566161516782016-12-20T11:30:04.576-05:002016-12-20T11:30:04.576-05:00There are so many variables that can be measured –...There are so many variables that can be measured – and so many that can be ignored – that you can produce any result you want by choosing what to measure and what to ignore.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-6800070104654466382016-12-20T03:10:24.081-05:002016-12-20T03:10:24.081-05:00there "seems" to be useful info in the i...there "seems" to be useful info in the ice cores:<br /><br />I googled "ice cores and solar activity ". Here is one of the many links <br /><br />http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/25/2-more-papers-russian-ice-cores-show-powerful-relationship-between-solar-activity-and-antarctic-climate/#sthash.fmEV1ukO.dubs<br /><br /><br />It would seem reasonable that the ice would hold onto long term information. Some of the other links mention volcanic activity having an effect as well. <br /><br /><br />I'm not a solar / climate researcher is at all. :-)<br /><br />Just enjoy reading interesting things. <br /><br /><br />Merry Christmas SiG Irishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09772405362867585844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-36648632891034423262016-12-19T23:32:17.661-05:002016-12-19T23:32:17.661-05:00Some of the self-proclaimed "experts" wh...Some of the self-proclaimed "experts" who tour the radio club circuit are FAR worse than the professionals.<br /><br />Since all the Hams want to hear that the next cycle will be "Bigger Than Cycle 19!!!", that's what they preach.<br /><br />It will be what it will be, and that's that!drjimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05647484115197408897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-82817903326647671202016-12-19T22:44:22.154-05:002016-12-19T22:44:22.154-05:00From what I gather, it's almost a joke in the ...From what I gather, it's almost a joke in the solar physics world how bad they are at predicting the next cycle. Remember the low between 23 and this one? Every few months for a couple of years, they pushed the start farther right and the peak lower. SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-88499308136668979942016-12-19T22:41:27.577-05:002016-12-19T22:41:27.577-05:00I didn't see anything that called out ice samp...I didn't see anything that called out ice samples. Not to say it's not out there, but I don't know of a way of measuring solar activity by something in the ice. SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-77385216898129445502016-12-19T22:38:55.036-05:002016-12-19T22:38:55.036-05:00I, too, tend to be pretty skeptical of solar activ...I, too, tend to be pretty skeptical of solar activity predictions.<br /><br />I've been around for five cycles now, and every time I've seen a predictions about the next one, it's been wrong.<br /><br />Sometimes "kinda-sorta" close, but still wrong.drjimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05647484115197408897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-26576778710312955982016-12-19T22:07:57.011-05:002016-12-19T22:07:57.011-05:00I wonder how this will correlate with ice core sam...I wonder how this will correlate with ice core samples and the past that they have captured?<br /><br />I haven't read the links you added so it might be addressed in them. Irishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09772405362867585844noreply@blogger.com