tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post9010967751114916615..comments2024-03-28T08:06:43.198-04:00Comments on The Silicon Graybeard: Greece is Circling the Bowl - Who Goes Down With Them?SiGraybeardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-24520026444682137372010-05-03T18:30:40.235-04:002010-05-03T18:30:40.235-04:00Next year? My guess would be by the September/Oct...Next year? My guess would be by the September/October time frame. OTOH, I'm not doing well predicting the economic shifts - they are way slower than I'm expecting. Watching how long they've been in the process of collapse gives me the impression if the IMF's main building was on fire, it would take them 6 months to get everyone out. <br /><br />Who's next? Denninger thinks the UK will pull themselves back from the brink, but I don't know. The next one to go could be Spain. Problem is that Spain will be "too big to bail", and Bad Things are going to happen. <br /><br />Right now, the dollar is doing well despite our troubles under the "least unattractive girl at the dance" theory. The dollar may be disgusting and scary, but is not as disgusting and scary as other currencies. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. <br /><br />The other thing that worked, at least once (1921) is the ruthless cutting of government spending and taxes, which would mean turning off the entitlements. Seems like that would end in riots.SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1592992209402300549.post-13062568086679056062010-05-03T00:18:53.176-04:002010-05-03T00:18:53.176-04:00I expect that we'll see the first country pull...I expect that we'll see the first country pull out of the Euro next year. The EU and IMF will try to paper it over this year, but the country involved won't risk the riots that cutting their budget will require, and the EU won't risk a financial meltdown.<br /><br />Greece or Spain pulling out, going to the old currency, and devaluing. This will make everyone in the country poorer, but is the only thing we've seen work in the past.Borepatchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.com