Happy New Year - 2016

New Year's Eve is upon us, and I just want to wish all of you a happy New Year.  

I think 2016 may turn out to be pivotal year.  Many of us have the sense that we're sliding into some sort of really bad times, including probable civil disturbances and possibly widespread conflict.  By some measures, we're already in recession; certainly in a bear market.  A stock, stock market sector or the overall market is widely seen as being in a bear market when it falls 20% from its 52-week high.  Of course, we've not really recovered completely from the '08 crash.

This graphic from Bonner and Partners shows that the overall market is down 19.4%, awfully close to - but technically short of - that 20% number, while energy, materials, telecom, and consumer discretionary spending are all down over 20%.

Of course, we have the insanity of the elections going on, with the daily horse race capturing headlines and attention.  I've long thought that once we get past the holidays, the number of people paying attention will go up, and the level of "seriousness" those people devote to the primaries will go up.  That doesn't mean it will get any better. 

At best, we're in for difficult times.  Enjoy a day off.   As we stumble into 2016  remember to drink responsibly and I wish you all a happy, healthy, prosperous, safe and free New Year.