Are We Within a Week of Starship's Orbital Test?

As recently as 10 days ago, there were reports that the first orbital test of Starship was looking to be late this month.  To be more specific, there was a published tease that the date might well be April 20 - or 4/20 for the cannabis fans - and Musk is fond of making 4/20 references and jokes.

Today, there's serious talk that the launch may be sooner, with Space.com reporting that launch may be next Monday, 4/10.  

SpaceX appears to have shifted gears.

On Saturday, Booster 7 which had been removed from the Orbital Launch Mount was lifted back onto the launch pad.  On the same day, Ship 24 was moved back to the test area from the shipyard.  It's expected that Ship 24 will be stacked on top of B7 soon. 

Today, the road was marked for closure from 8AM to 8PM (CDT) and B7 underwent a long cryo test session, filling both the LOX and Methane tanks, a good test of all the work done over the last couple of months of preparing the OLM for the launch it will be exposed to.  The testing may vary, but the rated take off thrust of Starship Superheavy boosters is over twice that of the Saturn V moon rockets.  That OLM is going to take a beating!

Then there's the fact that navigational warnings have been issued for the Starship orbital attempt, as Netherlands-based satellite tracker Marco Langbroek noted.  Those warnings cover a window of April 6 to 12th. A fairly important sign is pointing toward next Monday and Tuesday.

It also appears that, tentatively, NASA is reserving the use of its high-altitude WB-57 aircraft for observations of the Starship test flight on April 10 and 11. The agency is closely tracking SpaceX's progress with the massive rocket, as it intends to use the Starship vehicle as a lunar lander for its astronauts as part of the Artemis Moon missions.

Another sign arguing for later in the 6th to 12th window is that SpaceX still hasn't gotten its license for this launch.  It's hard to guess what a Fed.gov agency like the FAA might do, but it appears things are lining up for sooner than the 20th, 

After it launches, the Super Heavy rocket will fly from SpaceX's Starbase launch site eastward, over the Gulf of Mexico. For this test, the booster will not attempt a landing. After stage separation, the Starship upper vehicle is intended to reach orbital velocity before attempting a reentry into Earth's atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. If all goes well, it will make a controlled descent and landing into the ocean just north of the Hawaiian islands.

Musk said recently that Starship has about a 50% chance of success on that debut try. But SpaceX is building multiple Starship prototypes at Starbase and plans to launch them in relatively quick succession when they're ready.

"So I think we've got, hopefully, about an 80% chance of reaching orbit this year," Musk said on March 7 during an interview at the Morgan Stanley Conference (video).