After the early beginning to the Atlantic hurricane season that was briefly talked about here in June it quieted down. Some of that was Saharan dust over the Atlantic (a frequent occurrence, if not so regular we can set our watches by it) and some of that due to other unfavorable conditions. I recall watching two or three disturbances that were given very large chances of development but that never did coalesce into storms.
That has changed in the last week and the big picture has begun to look more like late August in terms of activity. This map from the 2PM update (EDT) shows a couple of things worth noting. First, note "SIX" in the middle; that's Tropical Depression six - they don't get named until they achieve tropical storm level. There are two named storms on the map, Emily and Franklin. Franklin was named today while Emily was named last night. Before that, they were large areas like the two with an X in them (and varying colors, denoting chance of development as seen in the drawing key). A storm named Emily, then is the fifth storm of the year that made it to Tropical Storm level (since E is the fifth letter of the alphabet).
Compare that to Tropical Storm Hilary in the eastern Pacific currently bringing rain to southern California. H is the eighth letter of the alphabet, so the Pacific basin has had more tropical storms than the Atlantic.
You can't watch anything related to the tropics without someone mentioning sea surface temperatures are "above normal" this year - probably due to last year's Hunga Tonga volcanic explosion as many have said. Sea surface temperatures are certainly a requirement for tropical storm formation; in fact, they may be a "sine qua non" ("without this, nothing" - to borrow the Latin) but to talk about temperatures without saying other things are necessary is like elementary school science. It's leaving important things out. The air rising from the hot sea surface must also rise relatively undisturbed. Wind shear will destroy a tropical storm as surely as cool temperatures will prevent one from even starting. The exact strength and development of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a critical part of this.
Which brings us to another chart of these two tropical storms, their predicted paths and strengths.
First, long time hurricane watchers will note that they're turning into the north Atlantic hundreds of miles east of where storms tend to do that. The early turn to the N or NE is not uncommon in El Nino years as we're in now. Note the prediction is for Emily to not make hurricane strength, but to weaken to Depression level by 2AM Tuesday and then become post-tropical. Franklin is predicted to achieve hurricane strength by Thursday afternoon. I'll have to watch the updates to these predictions because it's not over until the storm dissipates but the trend seems to sending both storms to the northern and eastern Atlantic. We call those fish storms.
An entire year of fish storms would be welcome.
The orange area over the Gulf of Mexico has been predicted to possibly make it to tropical storm status before going into Texas for almost a week (ISTM). I don't like the colored area covering SpaceX Boca Chica but I don't like it when the predictions are here over the Space Coast, either.
Nah, we need some making landfall, weed out the weak houses, and push some water further north. I'd just as soon have one linger for a bit - a takeitstimeacane.
ReplyDeleteSensible People in Florida can pretty much predict Atlantic hurricanes. We see that light hook northward and we know it's not going to do diddly here. Especially when the Gulf Stream is very active, like it is when sea temps are warm.
ReplyDeleteAnd we're usually much more prepared than other people. Like Hurricane Sandy. That would have been a slightly exciting time, but, still, yawn. But those up north where hurricanes 'never' land...
As to Hurricane Hilary, is there suddenly going to be a rash of 'suicides' connected to it? Really, for a Cat 1 that's going to downgrade as soon as it hits land, woooo.... Weren't they complaining they didn't have enough rain?
Stop being sensible, start panicking like the rest of us!
DeleteWE'RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIIIE!!!
If your definition of dying is getting a bit of rain and some wind.
Been under 100mph winds. As long as a tree doesn't fall, eh, so?
DeleteOne hurricane in 2004, I stood outside with my trusty chainsaw and cut the roots of the hickory that was pumping water in my yard. Wind blows one way, rootball sucked water, blows other way, shoots fountain of mud out. Was going to fall on my house, so I cut it as it swayed away from my house. Finally got it to fall.
Other than that, yawner.
Not anywhere near beaches or lowlands. Serious yawner.
Now, ifn I listened to all the Panickers and Climate Changers, my ma's house in Satellite Beach would have been washed away years ago, along with Banana River Naval Air Station/Patrick AFB/Patrick SFB and the Cape and Canaveral port and...
Take a look at tropicaltidbits.com good analysis
ReplyDeleteIn my bookmarks file and I go there regularly. Not as often as https://flhurricane.com/ but the more active things are the more often I go.
DeleteSend some water my way here in the Pacific NorthWest, please. We're literally burning up here!
ReplyDeleteIf water wasn't so heavy, that might be realistic. The Romans did a pretty amazing job of irrigating with very long aqueducts and troughs 2000 years ago. We should be able to equal that now.
DeleteWe can, and do, SiG. We just use more pumps rather than building those marvelous aqueduct spans nowadays, and use siphons for shorter valleys. The Great Salt Lake basin had many of them constructed in the early days of the Pioneers settling the area.
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