As We Wait for Vulcan Centaur to Launch

It's 7:30 PM as I sit down to put some thoughts together on the subject of ULA and Vulcan Centaur.  The Cert-1 mission is scheduled to launch in about 6 hours 45 minutes.  This may be the most important launch in the history of United Launch Alliance.  If not the most important, it's absolutely a pivotal moment.  One of the reasons it's so important is that ULA is for sale.  What will become of ULA?

A handful of unrelated circumstances have forced this situation.  One example was the mandate to stop using Russian-manufactured engines, which essentially mandated ending production of the Atlas V rockets, which have been using Russian engines since it became legal to buy them - after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  The last Atlas V will be the end of that storied rocket family that dates back to the 1950s.  

ULA was formed twenty years ago by a merger of the two biggest launch companies in the US: Boeing with its Delta family and Lockheed with its Atlas family.  Twenty-five years ago, they were starting to be hammered by foreign competition; the two companies couldn't compete with the European Arianespace or Russia on price for commercial launches. So the two US contractors doubled down on their competition for US government launch contracts.  Talk of a merger started, followed by stories of them double-crossing each other and spying on each other, but it eventually ended with the merger forming ULA. 

Did you notice that nowhere in there was there mention of ULA developing a new launch vehicle?  That's one of the critical parts of this Vulcan launch.  For the first time, ULA will be flying a vehicle it designed and developed on its own.  Certainly it has the DNA of the legacy Atlas and Delta families, but they're not the majority of its design.  By now, everyone knows about the Blue Origin BE-4 methane/oxygen engines Vulcan will be using.  No rocket has flown with BE-4 engines, yet.  

The thing about this story that should scream out at anyone who will listen is how SpaceX has dominated them.  It really can be simply summarized in the one stat we've mentioned a few times.  Last year, SpaceX launched 98 times - including their two Starship tests and counting Falcon Heavy launches as just one launch.  ULA launched three times.  98 to 3 does not bode well for ULA.  Yes, they have a contract for National Security missions, that are to be split essentially 50-50 between ULA and SpaceX, but what are the chances ULA gets both certification flights completed and certified by the US Space Force by the end of this year?  How long before they can be counted on as a launch service provider?  

There's a lot of demand for Vulcan launches.  ULA CEO Tory Bruno has said that ULA has booked 70 Vulcan launches, about half military missions and half commercial flights. The primary customer for the commercial launches is Amazon, which is eager to begin putting its Project Kuiper broadband Internet satellites into low-Earth orbit.  To even approach that amount of launches, ULA is focusing on achieving two launches per month by the end of 2025.  This is a far higher rate than ULA, Lockheed Martin or Boeing have ever achieved in their histories.    

As we've been reporting for quite a while, there are persistent stories that ULA is for sale.  

Over the last year, Ars has reported that the parents have put ULA up for sale and that three buyers have emerged, including Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin. The Wall Street Journal confirmed last month that a large private equity firm, Cerberus, has also submitted a bid. There is some speculation that a sale could be announced after Vulcan's first flight.

There is speculation that some new management could be just the thing ULA needs.  I'm sure you've heard of or seen the proverb that "the fish rots from the head;" I see no reason to think that only applies to medium sized businesses.  Blue Origin as a buyer doesn't inspire confidence as better management (at least not to me). 

The bottom line is we need to see if Vulcan is a viable launch vehicle.  One successful launch won't answer that, but it might point toward how many will be required before we start to think it really is viable. 

This view of the vehicle was posted to X by Tory Bruno, CEO of ULA.  He simply captioned the photo "Now that is a beautiful sight. #VulcanRocket"