Special Pages

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Another Highest Sunspot Number Since Cycle 23

Many may not have noticed (or remember) this, but in a post in early July of 2023, I passed on that the month of June '23 had posted the highest monthly average sunspot number since cycle 23 in 2002, or 21 years. 

We just had another one with this July's average sunspot number the highest since 2001.  Also from SpaceWeather.com 

The sun is partying like it's 2001. That's the last time sunspot counts were as high as they are now. The monthly average sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5, according to the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. This eclipses every month since Dec. 2001:

It practically goes without saying, because we've said it so often, but when Cycle 25 started, the experts were predicting a cycle about as weak as Cycle 24 before it, which was the weakest cycle in a century. In this plot from the Data Analysis Center, the gray band on the right is the predicted range - which was already raised from the predictions made in 2020. The dark blue line is the average monthly sunspot numbers and how much higher that has been for the whole cycle compared to the predicted average (red curve) is pretty obvious. 

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.

We're comparing current activity to 2001 back in Cycle 23, which is close to two of the most historic events ever seen. There was a flare in November of 2003 that was the biggest one seen since the satellite age started, it was classed as X28 in retrospect - because it saturated the X-ray detectors on the satellites and they couldn't measure it properly. Now, SpaceWeather.com is reporting that it has been re-classified from X28 to X45.  The kicker is that 45 is based on a completely different way of determining strength than that always used so I'm not sure I buy that the numbers mean the same thing. They also report there was “a CME so powerful” (cool animation) it was ultimately detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

While it's hard to know except by looking back in time, we're close to the peak of Cycle 25. The conventional timing plots confirm we're definitely near the peak and it looks like it will be some time in the next 2 to 3 years, but much like the blue curve in the plot above, it can be tricky to know where the curve really is going. I showed a plot of the progress of the cycle back in May,  and the latest update is just two lines on the chart to the right along the "Months After Start" axis. Yeah, they're higher, but there's very little new information there - which is why I tend to do my cycle updates twice a year.

Another thing I've repeated just about every time I've talked about this is that, yes, Cycle 25 is stronger than predicted and it's definitely stronger than the previous cycle, but that's not saying much. Cycle 24 was the weakest cycle in a hundred years. A bigger challenge is for it to be stronger than cycle 23, which this data shows has happened in two different months, now. Still, that plot I showed back in May shows that 25 has a long way to go to be stronger than 23 in terms of monthly Smoothed Sunspot Number. Probably an impossibly long way. Further, Cycle 23 was weaker than 22 and 22 was weaker than 21.



4 comments:

  1. The CME this last week really whacked HF propagation pretty well. One of the guys I listen/talk to is in SC, and he's usually S9+. He was barely out of the noise. Seems like things have gotten better, but the A Index is like 46, even though the K is 2.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These days I tend to drop down to HF when 6m is so dead that I'm actually falling asleep waiting for something to happen. The last HF contacts in my log were on 40m on 8/3, early morning, UTC, so Friday night here. If it's during the day, I'm more likely to drop to 12, 10 or 17m.

      On Saturday, 8/3, we had a 5 or 6 sigma opening on 6 on an otherwise fairly ordinary day. Completely cross country to CN84, 85 and 86. That's like 200 miles from the south end of CN84 to the north of CN86 after about 2700 miles getting from the SE to NW of the country. Lasted about 20 minutes. It's one of those things that without some sort of super notification system, you miss it unless you're doing BIC (Butt In Chair) time.

      Delete
  2. Maybe I will get some better antennas up before the peak goes by. Currently I only have up a 40 meter dipole. There are issues with too many trees and having no tower to go above them.

    SiG, how is prep day going? I am going in for the same procedure on Wednesday and get to have a great day tomorrow. I think I will just throw a tie-down strap around the toilet! :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I always used to say that if you had $X the advantage of antennas over amplifiers is that they make both receive and transmit better. Reality is that it's not always that simple a choice, especially once you've gotten that first handful of dB improvement. To improve my antennas substantially would be in the $10k range or more if I put up a bigger tower. That's twice the price of a good amplifier. Sometimes you grab a few dB wherever it's available.

      Prep day hasn't hit the fireworks yet. I just took the first bottle of prep stuff an hour ago. Good luck with yours!

      Delete