The launch of the Crew-9 mission, which will be the two man flight (instead of the usual four) that brings the Starliner duo of Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams home next year, has been listed as No Earlier Than this coming Thursday the 26th (2:05PM EDT) for a couple of weeks now. It turns out that a complication is developing that might affect that launch. That complication is currently named "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" and by the following map is looking to be Tropical Storm Helene by the next update at 2AM or perhaps 8AM (ET) tomorrow morning.
Image from the National Hurricane Center, screen grab from FLHurricane.com.
Tomorrow at 8AM doesn't matter, what matters is Thursday around launch time, and that's the location up the track
where the storm is designated "M" for a major hurricane, Category III or
higher, at 2PM Thursday. Right now, that's not going to bring bad conditions
to the Space Coast. The forecast predictions call for a 20 - 30% chance of
tropical storm winds, or 40mph and up, Thursday afternoon. Whether or not that's acceptable launch weather I don't have a source for but I don't think so. I've looked at the models the NHC uses to derive these predictions and only one model out of more than a dozen forecasts it getting as strong as Category III. Only five models show it even getting as strong as category II.
All those predictions are guaranteed to change over the next couple of days.
For us here south of the Cape, preps will have to be completed NLT Wednesday
afternoon. As you can tell by how close the black spots "S" and "H" are at the
bottom of the track and the "H" to "M" at the top, the storm's forward motion
speeds up as it goes north.
The Crew-9 mission will have no pilot, relying entirely on the autonomous systems of the Dragon capsule carrying Mission Specialist Aleksandr Gorbunov from Roscosmos and Commander Nick Hague from NASA. Their return trip, tentatively set for the end of February, will bring Butch and Suni in the two unoccupied seats.
Left to right, Aleksandr Gorbunov and Nick Hague. Image credit: NASA/Josh Valcarel
I guess it would be easier to build an autonomous spacecraft than an autonomous automobile? At least until SpaceX starts putting trucks up there.
ReplyDeleteThere's got to be a lot fewer problems with pedestrians and crazy drivers up there. Nobody standing on the curb and stepping in front of satellite.
DeleteI think the biggest problem in space is orbital debris, especially in the near Earth orbit region. I've seen studies on how the problem could increase to the point that spaceflight is impossible, and there was at least one novel postulating the Islamic Caliphate deliberately filling the region with junk.
DeletePreps started here in Mims. Being on the "dirty" side makes planning harder. I will batten the hatches as usual, but holding off on shutters for now unless something changes.
ReplyDeleteThis morning's forecast looks a bit slower. The last spot - Thursday 2PM - is farther south pretty much due west of St. Pete. Maybe a bit more time to flip the coin on how much to do. Like you, I'm waiting on the shutters and the really big job - taking down my antennas and tower.
DeleteI follow this site for raw information. He's a bit emotional, but the data is good. https://spaghettimodels.com/
DeleteThey're in my regular bookmarks I cycle through. I tend to grab the NHC stuff from that FLHurricane site (this storm is https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2024&storm=9)
DeleteI also follow Tropical Tidbits, and a good place to look for the big picture weather is a Florida State University, which has a good meteorology department. Finally, Earth can be fun to look at but I don't really get much out of it.
Thanks for the links. More info...Analysis paralysis as my wife calls it.
Delete"I feel your pain," as someone famous said. It's a constant struggle to not fall in.
DeleteWhy are launches always delayed? Why not advance the launch? Launch today.
ReplyDeleteOrbital mechanics, equipment not ready, no parking spots (at the ISS), problems with ground equipment, and - lastly - political considerations... like the small matter of a launch license delay...
DeleteGood summary Igor.
DeleteThe short version is they always give a launch time as No Earlier Than, or NET. That pretty much says that if they do everything they need to do get the system ready to fly, that's the earliest they can launch. I assume that sets the time they start doing the normal bunch of things they need to do at the normal lead time before the launch.