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Monday, October 28, 2024

Psst. Hey buddy... Wanna Buy Starliner?

Not a Starliner capsule. The entire program.  

Reports are starting to circulate that Boeing is looking into selling its space business, including Starliner program.  The reason is the large financial losses that the Starliner team incurred, currently $1.85 billion as covered last Thursday. Boeing's defense, space and security business, reported $3.1 billion in losses (against $18.5 billion in revenues) in the first nine months of 2024, so Starliner is responsible for more than half their losses (according to Boeing's 3rd quarter results).

The discussions are said to be "at an early stage," according to an exclusive in the Wall Street Journal.

Boeing is known for decades of work with NASA, including being the prime contractor for the International Space Station. (The company continues engineering support services for ISS to this day.) But Boeing is facing mounting financial issues this year, including a protracted strike by its largest labor union and significant deficits in the Starliner program.

It's worth noting that the WSJ also emphasizes the discussions about selling are "at an early stage." 

Interestingly, Boeing may hold onto its Space Launch System (SLS), presumably because as a cost plus contract, they didn't incur losses on SLS; they passed those extra expenses on to American taxpayers. Don't forget that Boeing has a 50% ownership along with with Lockheed Martin in United Launch Alliance. ULA has a large backlog of work over the next few years and I haven't seen anyone comparing Vulcan to SLS so that seems like a good business to hold on to.

Given that overview, they might sell only Starliner and I can't imagine they could find a buyer. First off, it'll be 2025 before you blink another few times and that means the ISS has around five years left in operation before it's scheduled to be de-orbited.  With Crewed missions typically staying in space six months, that means roughly 10 missions to bring a crew to orbit, and SpaceX will get at least half of those. Which leads to the rough trade off of how much would the new owner pay to get Starliner approved by NASA (not a guarantee) and how much will they get paid to fly five missions. Is there a profit to be made?

It seems Boeing has a good business (1/2 of ULA), a profitable business that might be standing on shaky legs because it's unreasonably expensive (SLS), and one Stinker.  Back in my early days as an electronics tech 50 years ago, we used to joke about work being a game we called Gems and Turds.  You picked up something to work on and it was like reaching blindfolded into a bag of Gems and Turds. Which one you got was pure luck of the draw. Buying something like the Starliner business should be nothing like that. The buyers should know what they're getting.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg wants to sell the turds and just keep the gems.  Good luck with that. 

Boeing's Starliner spacecraft launches atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket on June 5, 2024 from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Image credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images



7 comments:

  1. Wonder how much they're prepared to pay someone to buy it?

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  2. This decade is an historic turning point where private space business becomes the norm, and NASA is, at best, just another paying customer.
    If the new administration wants to eliminate NASA...I won't object.

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    1. What if Commiemala "wins" and decides to eliminate SpaceX?

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  3. 1) I wonder if "Sell to" would include a foreign buyer.

    2) If not immediately sold, I wonder if they would just cancel it and take the tax loss.

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    1. I wonder if "Sell to" would include a foreign buyer.

      My WAG is that the question if it could include a foreign buyer, but if it could they would. Or the foreign buyer could set up a shell here.

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  4. When you screw the pooch so hard it'll never walk again, you don't get to sell it at a dog show.

    You take it to the pound, say goodbye, and own your grief and discomfort at being such an awful dog owner.

    Starliner and Old Yeller are about to have a lot in common.


    "If It's Boeing, you ain't going." - Boeing corporate motto 2024

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  5. I saw a YT entry saying that Elon was buying Starliner, and I had a real good laugh!
    What an idiot, putting that out to the public.

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