Blue Origin Politely... Gently... Pushing the FAA

In a not-so-subtle signal to regulators, Blue Origin is saying New Glenn is ready so what's holding up our approval to test and launch?

The company published a photo of the payload called Blue Ring for the first New Glenn test flight, a programmable upper stage that's intended to get payloads to different orbits than the one originally launched into, a fairly common concept these days.  

"There is a growing demand to quickly move and position equipment and infrastructure in multiple orbits," the company's chief executive, Dave Limp, said on LinkedIn. "Blue Ring has advanced propulsion and communication capabilities for government and commercial customers to handle these maneuvers precisely and efficiently."

A small pathfinder for Blue Ring is seen set against one half of a payload fairing of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket. Credit: Blue Origin 

Blue is widely recognized as not being very public about their plans and goals. This public photo and announcement on LinkedIn are an exception to that.  Speculation is that they're signalling to the regulatory agencies that they want to get this flight before the end of '24.  

First of all, notice how small the payload is compared to the inside of the payload fairing.  That's probably to give potential customers an idea of how big their payloads can be.  This fairing is 7 meters in diameter, 23 feet.  The available fairings vary with the launch platform, so it's a bit of a jump to assume they're comparing to a specific competitor's rocket, but it does give a good first impression, along the lines of "gee, that looks big." 

Additionally, the company appears to be publicly signaling the Federal Aviation Administration and other regulatory agencies that it believes New Glenn is ready to fly, pending approval to conduct a hot fire test at Launch Complex-36, and then for a liftoff from Florida. This is a not-so-subtle message to regulators to please hurry up and complete the paperwork necessary for launch activities. It is not clear what is holding up the hot-fire and launch approval in this case, but it is often environmental issues or certification of a flight termination system.

Blue Origin's release on Tuesday was carefully worded. The headline said New Glenn was "on track" for a launch this year and stated that the Blue Ring payload is "ready" for a launch this year. As yet there is no notional or public launch date. The hot-fire test has been delayed multiple times since the company put the rocket on its launch pad on Nov. 23. It had been targeting November for the test, and more recently, this past weekend.

In addition, it could be personal.  New Glenn was originally projected to launch in 2020, and after a few years of delays, Blue's founder, Jeff Bezos, fired the former CEO, replacing him with Dave Limp in September of '23.  Limp was given a mandate to reform Blue Origin's corporate culture to make it faster and more responsive.  He was also told to get New Glenn in space by the end of '24, we just don't know if there was an actual, "or else" with that mandate.  

Let's be honest: it's a lot easier to put your expensive or valuable payload (including yourself) on a rocket that has flown a lot of times than one that has never flown. It's simply a case of the more you fly the more you can learn about the vehicle. The fact that their BE-4 engines have flown a couple of different launch vehicles on one mission is a bit of a comfort; after all, engine problems are responsible for about half of launch vehicle failures...

However, a million things can go wrong during a launch debut, and it only takes one problem for a vehicle to be lost. With such a large rocket, integrating so many new components and software programs, there could well be hidden problems discovered only in flight.

Additionally, Blue Origin needs to fly its New Glenn rocket in order to identify where the vehicle has margin. Sources have indicated that the payload capacity of the current iteration of New Glenn is closer to 25 metric tons than its advertised mass of 45 tons. This is not uncommon for new launch vehicles, and the company will be able to use real-world performance data to refine the vehicle's hardware and software for future flights. Still, those improvements can only be made after a launch occurs, when data is collected and analyzed.

It turns out that due to changes in "the Big Picture" of NASA and the administration, getting this vehicle tested ASAP could be very important to Blue Origin. As in life or death important. 

And there are other pressures on the rocket company to get moving. Officials with the incoming Trump administration are considering canceling NASA's Space Launch System rocket, a very large but expensive and inefficient-to-produce booster that is part of the agency's plan to return humans to the Moon. Therefore, they are interested to see whether Blue Origin can deliver a privately developed heavy lift rocket in New Glenn to increase the space agency's options for getting astronauts to the lunar surface. Sources have indicated that these officials very much would like to see Blue Origin play a major role in the lunar return, but before that happens the company needs to demonstrate that it can execute on its ambitious, but long-delayed, rocket.

A successful test flight could create a lot of very good Christmases; a loss of vehicle failure could create a lot of very bad Christmases.