It's an interesting thought experiment to look a few years into the future and decide what aspects of the space industry will be worth aiming for. Can a startup design and implement the needs of the market ahead of the rest of the industry?
Meet the California-based startup satellite company K2, a company with a novel and interesting view of the future. Instead of
expecting fleets of small satellites because of the current trends in that
direction, Karan Kunjur the co-founder and chief executive of K2 looks at the
emergence of Starship and the other very large capacity launch vehicles being
talked about and has the opposite idea.
"We think we're about to go from an era of mass constraints to an era of mass abundance."
Look at the argument that we're going to be able to put much more mass into
orbit this way: the cost per kg for the cheapest way to space now, a ride
sharing mission on a Falcon 9, has been quoted (2022) as $1M (million) per 200-kilogram
(440 lb) ‘slot’ which works out to $5,000/kg (more mass goes at the same price
per kg). Other vehicles currently on the market cost more. Rocket
Lab’s more accessible Electron rocket that only lifts smaller payloads than the Falcon 9 costs at least $7.5M for ~200 kg
to sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) – or $37,500/kg. The cost to orbit for
Starship and SuperHeavy
has been calculated
to be $35 per kg. That's 0.7% of the Falcon 9 cost of $5,000/kg.
"When we looked at the market, we saw a massive amount of small satellites," Kunjur said. "The small-satellite boom figured out how to go cheaper and faster, but it hasn't figured out how to do that without sacrificing capability."
We're now back at one of the universal truths of engineering: Engineering is the Art of Compromise. There are no ideal solutions that are best in every situation so everything is tradeoffs. When you go to "smaller, cheaper, faster," the tradeoffs are going to take something from you.
The industry has turned to satellite buses for bigger satellites - a satellite bus is the main structural component of a satellite, which payloads "plug into." The standard sat bus is made by Lockheed Martin and called the AM2100 spacecraft. It's a proven vehicle with a payload capacity of more than 1 ton and 20 kW of peak power, used for the military's Global Positioning Satellites and other government applications. Satellites built on the AM2100 have operating in geostationary orbit for 15 years or longer.
Although the price of this satellite bus is proprietary, various estimates place the cost at between $100 million and $150 million. One reason for the expense is that Lockheed Martin buys most of the satellite's elements, such as its reaction wheels, from suppliers.
"Lockheed is amazing at doing those missions with really complex requirements," Kunjur said. "But they just have not changed the way they build these larger, more complex spacecraft in the last 15 or 20 years."
K2 figured that there were probably newer ways to do this, since Lock-Mart hasn't changed them in so long. Last week, SpaceX launched a test version of K2's satellite bus last week on a Falcon 9 Transporter ride share mission. Like the cost of the AM2100 bus itself, the cost of the reaction wheels it depends on is proprietary, but K2 guesstimates the cost at 1/2 to $1M each. Their in-house developed reaction wheels cost $35,000.
The company is now building its first "Mega Class" satellite bus, intended to have similar capabilities to Lockheed's LM2100: 20 kW of power, 1,000 kg of payload capacity, and propulsion to move between orbits. But it's also stackable: Ten will fit within a Falcon 9 payload fairing and about 50 within Starship's fairing. The biggest difference is cost. K2 aims to sell its satellite bus for $15 million.
The US Government is quite interested in this.
About a month ago, K2 announced that it had signed a contract with the US Space Force to launch its first Mega Class satellite in early 2026. The $60 million contract for the "Gravitas" mission will demonstrate the ability of K2's satellite bus to host several experiments and successfully maneuver from low-Earth orbit to middle-Earth orbit (several thousand km above the surface of Earth).
Naturally, this is early in the process, but they come across as doing well for where they are in the development process.
A look inside the K2 Space factory. Image credit: K2
Cool. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteOne of the things that modern engineering and not having to scrimp and save mass/volume/weight is that things can get less expensive and be as good as legacy very expensive stuff.
ReplyDeleteIt's about time. Even without Starship, there has been a need for next-gen stuff. With Starship, suddenly the volume/weight/mass of single satellites has become within the realm of REALLY FRIGGIN BIGLY. And with the increased launch cadence comes the need for actual mass produced commercial off-the-shelf components where a satellite builder can just go to Space's Big-Box Store or McSpacer's Carr online and pick and choose and manufacture/produce their satellite du jour in a more expedient fashion rather than starting designing and then finishing 10 years later.
This K2 stuff is cool, as Pergelator said. And about time. And now I wonder who else is out there doing weird and splendid stuff that hasn't gotten any news.
Cost shift from $5000/kg to $35/kg!?!
ReplyDeleteSo now a 300# payload can be put in orbit for what it used to cost for 1 kg.
That would be like making a FedEx package the same price to ship as a first-class letter.
Or making gasoline 10¢/gallon tomorrow.
Gonna have some wee impact on the orbital shipping business, indeed.
35/5000*4.50 = 3.15 cents.
DeleteK2 seems a boutique outfitter filling a niche. Good for them, such companies do very well.
ReplyDeleteBut there are downsides. There is a short window.
As Pathfinders, they have to hurry to secure market share. K2 also has to offer more than a price discount. The push will be to secure proprietary hardware that enough launchers (payload owners) will want.
To win enough launchers is a full time job. A company within a company, as it were. For a boutique outfit, that is a hard nut to crack.
The other side of that is the dangers of explosive (no pun) growth. Attracting investors seems right but too much, too fast is a great risk. Often fatal for a small company. But this is the new space race. Go fast, but slow down.
Imagine an industry so vast that there are niches waiting to be filled. Now imagine that same industry which a decade ago barely existed.
DeleteExcellent comments, all y'all.
ReplyDeleteAn aspect nobody mentioned, including me, is that commercialization of space in a free market turns everything upside down. Which is the way it should be. When everybody is working on cost-plus gubmint contracts there is absolutely no incentive to be more efficient, effective or innovative. Case in point is SLS, literally flying the same engines that flew on Shuttles 20 years ago and charging around half a $ billion EACH. Why? Because they can! Gubmints don't care about being efficient - an observation proven a billion times per day all around the world - so the companies that can charge a half a billion for a 30 year old engine will do so.
We're at an inflection point in growth due to a combination of things, as always, but mostly because of innovators in many different fields and a relatively free marketplace.
"Because they can" says so much about America today.
DeleteK2's business plan is more simply stated as "We are going to seize market share from LockheedMartin. Whatever LockheedMartin does, we will do it better, for less." If the new large launchers are successful in reducing launch costs and expanding the market, K2 will win.
ReplyDeleteYes sir, the hippos are going to bleed and the tigers are going to feed.
ReplyDeleteA great advancement. I wouldn't be surprised to see them doing "rideshare" with these - instead of small customers launching small satellites and having to work on the whole system, small customers could put their experiment or sensor on part of one of these. Then they don't have to develop power, comms, or propulsion (within limits).
ReplyDeleteI can also see grouped interests sharing a bus - multiple Earth observation sensor, or astronomical, etc.
If they find a way to deorbit them, we could see true space based manufacturing and return - a new type of offshoring!
Jonathan