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Friday, July 8, 2022

Just A Small Point or Two

To begin with, H/T to Western Rifle Shooters for yesterday's post "Kinda SADS" (reference to the Sudden Adult Death Syndrome) and one little thing in the image posted.  This image. 

Which (I believe) was intended to be a collection of "health" articles that are explaining away why  younger/healthier people are suddenly dying at unprecedented rates. 

If you haven't been a longtime reader, you probably don't know that I have a special hate for junk science.  A deep, epic-level of ha-a-a-a-te.  These stories are epic examples of junk science.  

Let's start with the bottom right.

To begin with, we have to recognize that virtually all studies like this are studies of correlations.  For some reason, perhaps just looking for correlations, someone noticed something that they could possibly publish and did the arithmetic to write a paper.  Then they actually got published for saying a 1 degree C rise in the summer night temperature could increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) death by 3.1%.  That number by itself should get the editor to reject the paper.  A result that small may be "statistically significant" and still be completely wrong.  A relative risk increase of 1.031 isn't the kind of number we see from things that are truly dangerous.  Those are two or three times the risk. 

Incidentally, that's the second smallest percent increase in some health problem I've ever seen published.  The smallest was 1.2%.  I personally don't pay any attention to risk increases smaller than about 50% (1.5x).  Take a different experimental group and the risk will be different.  

The study just above that, saying "Solar Storms May Cause Up To 5500 Heart-Related Deaths In a Given Year."  There's just so much wrong with this, it's hard to know where to start, but let's start with "May Cause."  Does that also mean those storms may not cause them?  Second, how big is this affect?  To know that we need to know how many people die of Heart Disease in a year.  The CDC FastStats web page says 696,962 people died of heart disease in 2020, the last year for which totals are available.  A check of the New Scientist article says they're talking about the US so 5500 out of 696,962 is an increase of 0.79%, and it's probably abusing significant figures to use two decimal places because there are two figures in their estimate of 5500.  Whether you call it 0.79%, 0.8% or 1%, it's a pretty small risk increase again.  

The storms they talk about are correlated with sunspot cycle, meaning (1) they're more likely to occur in some years  (around the cycle peaks) than other years and (2) this is nothing new; we've had solar storms in solar cycles for all of human history.  Further, every animal on the planet advanced enough to have a cardiovascular system is exposed to these same storms.  Is there evidence that there are cyclic increases and decreases in heart disease deaths that track solar activity?  In humans or any animal?  They won't let me read the article without paying to subscribe. 

I'm going to skip the top left story because it seems to be saying when people open their inflated utility bills, those bills "may" (again) cause them to stroke out.  Seems pretty self-evident and also not very likely.  

The bottom left story isn't a story about gardening, "urgent warning to gardeners as soil, 'increases risk of killer heart disease';" it's a story about pollution and how pollution gets into everything and... and... the poor people and minorities will be hit the hardest.  Oh, and microplastics!!!  So wear a mask while you garden.  Seriously.

I'd make fun of it, too, but they don't list any numbers to shoot down.  



9 comments:

  1. The vaccine is working. People are supposed to die. Had to make it random, and not allow everyone to have a heart attack or blood clot at the same time. Enter SADS...who knew!

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  2. Death Vaxx is doing its job, and statisti-liars are doing theirs.
    Nothing new to see here.
    They aren't even bothering to camouflage the deception plan.

    This is Soviet-era hamfistedness coupled with knee-jerk gaslighting. They do something so obvious Stevie Wonder can spot it, from space, and then they just look at you with fish eyes and dare you to notice the 800# gorilla. And then they deny there's a gorilla there at all. "So, are you going to believe the world's foremost experts and fact-checkers, or your lying eyes?!?"

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    1. The latest one I've seen reports of starts like this:

      I'm getting multiple reports from my nurse friends about kids 2 and 3 years old having seizures. It is ONLY happening on vaccinated kids, and symptoms start 2 to 5 days after the COVID vaccine. Followed by The medical staff is not permitted to talk about the cases to the press or on social media or they will be fired.

      From Steve Kirsch. FWIW.

      Naturally

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    2. We don't see many kids (thank a merciful deity) where I am. My anomaly is that as a top-ranked stroke center, we're seeing a notable (and probably anomalous) increase in strokes, and stroke-like symptoms, for all ages down to 40s. We used to get a few to several a week, but lately it's becoming multiple events per shift.
      I don't have hard data, but it's a noticeable uptick, every day and night.

      Just like those weird respiratory cases we were getting for the two-three months before they discovered/admitted COVID was already here late 2019-early 2020, and started looking for it.

      But no one is asking or suggesting any correlation with vaxxed and stroked. Almost like there's a double-secret gag order on the very idea from TPTB.

      And every single one of my vaxxed-and-boosted colleagues has had COVID, twice. Two years on completely unvaxxed, and I still test negative twice a week, which will likely continue until the hospital has to start paying for the test kits.

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  3. Did you know that EVERY ONE who has ingested Dihydrogen Monoxide has died from its effects?
    Prove me wrong...
    ;P

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  4. Never forget that Ms. Harris got her job for opening her mouth!

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  5. Any good study publishes it's methodology and statistics. Since these don't, by definition they aren't good studies.

    And who is giving CVD shots to 2 and 3 year olds? The most aggressive guidance I've seen only goes down to 5 year olds

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  6. “Stupidity cannot be cured. Stupidity is the only universal capital crime; the sentence is death. There is no appeal, and execution is carried out automatically and without pity.”

    ― Robert Heinlein

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    Replies
    1. "Ignorance can be fixed. Stupid is forever."

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