Special Pages

Sunday, August 27, 2023

We Interrupt Your Week

My coming week has been derailed and interrupted by the typical major disruption this time of year, a hurricane should pass by Tuesday evening.  Which means I need to prepare for some work that will probably need to be done. 

The storm, if you haven't been watching weather for outside your local area, is currently Tropical Storm Idalia (someone said that's pronounced ee-DAL-ya) which has been developing slowly around the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.  The "big picture" of high and low pressure systems that steer these things has finally changed, as the long range models have been saying it would, and after days in one small area, moving around at 2 or 3 mph, it looks like it's going to scoot north and northeast.  

The most recent update to the National Hurricane Center prediction shows the currently predicted path is this:

The center of the storm looks to be coming ashore early Wednesday morning in an area of Florida usually called The Big Bend.  Notice (in the middle column at the bottom of the map, marked "Current Information") that it's currently moving 3 mph.  Compare the distances between the first and second locator dots, labeled 7 PM Sun and 1 PM Mon, and the two dots marked 1 PM Tue and 1 AM Wed.  The first interval, much shorter distance, is 18 hours.  The second two are 12 hours apart.  It is going to speed up quite a bit.

There are a couple of small towns or cities around where that track crosses the shore, and the closest seems to be Steinhatchee. 

I live south of Cape Canaveral, the bump on the east coast about halfway up.  That track is nowhere near me.  So what's the big deal?  

The first thing is that in my reading about this storm, I ran into a meteorologist saying yesterday that the forecast is low confidence because a regular pass of a satellite that can measure wind speed had not happened on Saturday and the hurricane hunter planes that fly through the storms taking data were out east flying through hurricane Franklin.  The satellite pass and a dedicated hurricane hunter mission were supposed to happen today, but the major computer models are run only a few times per day and it might look different on Monday.  

Then there's this forecast, the probability of tropical-storm-force winds for a given area.  It shows about a 25% chance (the light green color is 20-30%) of us getting TS winds.  Another chart on the data site says the arrival time is predicted to be Tuesday in the late afternoon to evening.  The other, much bigger contour map of tropical storm winds to the east of Florida is hurricane Franklin.

Last September, hurricane Ian blasted the southwest coast of Florida and knowing we weren't going to get the full hurricane, just tropical storm winds, I underplayed the serious potential of the tropical storm.  I was stupid and as a result spent from the end of September until late May fixing my ham radio tower installation.  There were some interruptions, like not being to work on it for six weeks due to my stomach surgery, so it's not like I was working on it every day, whatever, I just have no desire to go through that again.

At this point, it looks like I'll get a closer look at things tomorrow.  If the big picture doesn't get any better, I expect to take down the tower and antennas on Tuesday.  If the situation improves, perhaps I don't do that; if the situation degrades, that work may move to Monday. 



20 comments:

  1. When I saw the name, the first thing I thought of was Vidalia. So there's a giant onion heading for you!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Semper Gumby, SiG...."Always Flexible"!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Funny how as I start leaning on 70 (not quite pushing 70), flexibility is waning.

      Delete
  3. I'm on the other coast from you, so this is way more of a threat.

    Our local, trusted, meteorologist is saying he's confident in the track.

    Denis Philips wouldn't lie to me!

    We're doing our preps and bracing, and hoping.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good luck! Of course, I don't know exactly where you are, but it looks right now like the whole coast from around Ft. Meyers north will get TS winds.

      Don't know if you know this web site, but it's usually good:
      https://flhurricane.com/

      Delete
  4. The finished floor in our previous home in Cape Coral was certified 8 ft. above sea level. Storm surge from Ian was at 7 ft. above sea level in our back yard. We have since moved. NOT dealing with that crap any more. Still... being in N. Ft. Myers, we're not liking this path... add to that, we're supposed to be flying out of RSW on Wednesday.... that may NOT be happening and we're not happy about that one bit. At least we're no longer in a "Mandatory Evacuation Zone" this time around.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Back when we bought this house, one of the reasons is because along the east coast is a sand ridge around 20 ft. above sea level. Back when they put the railroads in (1920s?), they put the tracks along that ridge. While it has never flooded water up to the house, it has gotten close because the drainage can't keep up with the rainfall.

      Delete
    2. People on the central ridge of Merritt Island are usually safe.

      But you are right, once you get above the river's edge, you're pretty safe.

      Funny, though, when they built the beaches, they removed a lot of sand to level it all down.

      And my grandmother remembered hurricanes pushing waves all the way through Tampa back in the 1910's. Things haven't changed much in over 100 years. Especially the idjits who dug under the railroad to make a road. Fools...

      Delete
  5. I'm just north of Titusville. We will begin to secure a few things in the yard, check over the usual preps, and keep the weather eye peeled. The track has moved a bit eastward each run, so ready is better than not. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If anything, it's looking worse this morning, and I think I'll end up doing the prep work this afternoon. Both of us have moved into the 30-40% chance of TS, and 50% is close. The cape is under 50% chance. They now forecast the storm making "Major" hurricane, category 3 or more.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Situation normal... :)

      Delete
    2. https://spaghettimodels.com/ Good amalgamate sight. One stop shopping.

      Delete
    3. Bookmarked. Been there before, but never hit the button to bookmark it, though.

      Delete
  7. Never been through a hurricane - on the outer fringes of a typhoon once or twice. To appreciate the situation I watched "Key Largo" last night.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a good old movie! Gee, I haven't seen that in a long time. I think I went through a period maybe 45 years ago when I watched pretty much all of those classic Bogart movies.

      Delete
  8. Looks like you are going to be on the "wet side" of Idalia. Batten down the hatches and bring down the antennas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Our forecast has dropped to the 5-10% chance of TS winds, but I called off taking everything down this morning when I found something on the NHC I hadn't seen before. You know TS is > 39 mph; this chart is for a wind between that and hurricane strength (74). The new chart is for 58 mph (50 kts). The closest edges of that were around 50 to 60 miles from us. Our local NOAA website shows the highest winds tomorrow at 25 gusting 38.

      They're predicting 1 to 2 inches of rain for us.

      Delete
    2. That is good to know. When I wrote that, the projected path was further to the south than it is now.

      Delete
  9. I live in the Pacific Northwest (but moving to LOGAN UT short;ly), and all we have to worry about is burning to death in the wildfires...

    As long as it doesn't affect the Space Coast, I'm happy!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I could have sworn we'd been to Logan, but I can find nothing to show if or when. My wife also thought we'd been to Logan.

      I dunno. (shrugs)

      Delete