NASA Punts Decision on Mars Sample Return

Since I first heard of it in 2021, I've been trying to keep on top of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission originally conceived as an add-on to the Perseverance Rover (and the Ingenuity helicopter) currently on Mars. The idea has been that Perseverance would save particularly noteworthy samples of rocks or other things it comes across on Mars, stored inside the rover. At some time later, the MSR mission would rendezvous with the rover, they'd transfer the samples and MSR would return the samples to Earth.  

The problem is that the mission is exceptionally expensive, in the vicinity of $11 billion, and NASA has been concerned it's essentially not doable.

You probably remember the rest of the story.  Briefly, in September of '23, NASA received a report from an independent review board saying that the MSR Mission was unworkable in its current form and wasn't feasible on the schedule and costs they were working under.  They recommended the issues be studied. The studies were disclosed on April 15th 2024, and the agency said everything but that nasty word “cancelled,” ending instead with saying they will seek “out of the box” ideas in a bid to reduce the costs and shorten the schedule for returning samples from Mars.  

On June 7, NASA selected seven companies to provide 90 day studies, valued at up to $1.5 million each, to examine different concepts that could reduce the cost or improve the schedule for MSR. Those companies are Aerojet Rocketdyne, Blue Origin, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Quantum Space, SpaceX and Whittinghill Aerospace.  That 90 day period ended in September of '24, conveniently enough at the AIAA ASCEND Conference, being held in Las Vegas. (That's the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Conference dedicated to making humanity interplanetary).  That kicked off yet another study period.  Reports in the last two weeks were that NASA would host a conference yesterday, Jan. 7, 2025.  That's more like 120 days from the previous 90 day time block and the conference was held yesterday.

NASA leadership announced Jan. 7 that it would pursue studies of two architectures for its Mars Sample Return effort that would take samples currently being collected by the Perseverance rover and bring them back to Earth as soon as 2035.

The two architectures will be studied for the next year and a half and the final decision left for the next administration. 

The first option, which NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said would cost between $6.6 billion and $7.7 billion, would use the “sky crane” technology previously developed by Jet Propulsion Laboratory for landing the Perseverance and Curiosity rovers. The second option, with projected costs of $5.8 billion to $7.1 billion, would use a commercially provided “heavy lander”.

This graphic may help:

There are two complete Sky Cranes depicted here, along with the Propulsive Legged Lander, referred to as the PLL in the inset in the graphic.  Note the predicted mass of the PLL is over 2-1/2 times the predicted mass of the SRL Sky Crane.  Note that the Propulsive Legged Lander refers to the numbers shown as PDR Baseline numbers, where that stands for Preliminary Design Review.  PDR is among the first formal Design Reviews hardware will go through.  That says there's a set of fairly high-confidence design numbers to build a prototype, but there's still a chance that things will be found after PDR that can change the capabilities. 

NASA did not provide a name of prime contractor for the PPL. 

Nicky Fox, NASA associate administrator for science, declined to discuss specifics about what companies proposed, citing proprietary information. Both Blue Origin and SpaceX did receive study contracts in June 2024 for concepts that would incorporate technologies they are developing for Blue Origin’s Blue Moon and SpaceX’s Starship lunar landers.
...
Both systems would deliver a redesigned sample retrieval landing platform. It would use a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) for power rather than solar panels, a move intended to simplify operations of the lander and better deal with dust storms that would impair solar panels. It would also use a smaller MAV, although NASA did not release details on changes in the design of the rocket that was one focus of the study contracts awarded last June. [NOTE: MAV is the Mars Ascent Vehicle, a small rocket that will lift the samples to Mars orbit for transfer to the ride to Earth - SiG]

The result of this meeting was to punt on how to get this program to work and get the samples that are already sitting in Perseverance back to Earth.  NASA doesn't even have money in the budget to consider the study.

That initial work, Nelson said, requires Congress to provide at least $300 million in a fiscal year 2025 appropriations bill. NASA originally zeroed out MSR in its 2025 budget request last March, then requested $200 million. A House spending bill introduced last year would have provided $650 million while a Senate version offered $200 million. Congress has yet to pass a final 2025 spending bill, more than three months into the fiscal year.

For his part, Bill Nelson said he didn't want to leave just one option to hand to the Trump administration and defended what could be seen as leaving a problem for the new administration saying, “I think it was a responsible thing to do not to hand the new administration just one alternative if they want to have Mars Sample Return, which I can’t imagine that they don’t.”