I'll go out a limb and say I bet most of you remember the old Federal Express commercials with the line, "when it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight." I've always mixed that in mind with the Ghostbusters line, "who ya gonna call?"
Nowadays that has turned into you've got to get a satellite - or 20 or 30 - into orbit. They absolutely, positively have to be there ASAP. Yesterday would have been late, don't ask about tomorrow. Do you call the guys who launch roughly three times a week, or the guys who launch maybe three times a year, or three times a quarter? Goes without saying doesn't it? Not exactly a really tough decision.
This morning at 2:30 AM EDT, SpaceX launched their second load of Amazon's Kuiper satellites, 24, into orbit from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.
With this launch, Amazon now has 78 Kuiper satellites in orbit. The full Kuiper constellation will consist of 3,232 satellites to provide broadband Internet service to most of the populated world, bringing Amazon in competition with SpaceX's Starlink network.
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Amazon has booked more than 80 launches to deploy the Kuiper constellation, but the company didn't turn to SpaceX until it had to. Amazon purchased 68 rocket flights from United Launch Alliance, Arianespace, and Blue Origin in 2022 to launch thousands of Kuiper satellites. At the time, ULA's Vulcan rocket, Arianespace's Ariane 6, and Blue Origin's New Glenn hadn't completed any launches, so Amazon reserved nine flights on ULA's Atlas V to support the initial series of Kuiper missions.
In the rest of the industrial world, I think hiring your competitor (in Amazon's case) or helping allow your competitor stay in business to compete against you in SpaceX's case is an odd situation. In this case, SpaceX has helped not just Amazon but has launched for other competitors - at least in the "competitors on paper" sense. Northrop Grumman comes immediately to mind: SpaceX has been launching their Cygnus cargo capsule to the ISS since they ran into issues related to their Antares rocket back in 2022. It's reasonable to say this isn't as much helping their competitor as it is ensuring the cargo needed to keep the ISS functional will get there. Practically, that's a public service mission.
An interesting footnote to this discussion is that originally, Amazon didn't offer any contracts to SpaceX.
A shareholder lawsuit filed in 2023 accused Amazon's founder Jeff Bezos and its board of directors of breaching their "fiduciary duty" by not considering SpaceX as an option for launching Kuiper satellites. The plaintiffs in the lawsuit alleged Amazon didn't consider the Falcon 9 due to an intense and personal rivalry between Bezos and SpaceX founder Elon Musk.
Amazon bowed to the allegations and announced a contract with SpaceX for three Falcon 9 launches in December 2023 to provide "additional capacity" for deploying the Kuiper network.
With this launch, Amazon has 78 Kuiper satellites in orbit. The full Kuiper constellation will consist of 3,232 satellites. So far, SpaceX has launched more than 9,100 Starlink satellites, including satellites that had to be forced out of the the constellation due to various problems that made them not meet requirements. The actual number of Starlink satellites in the constellation is (very roughly) around 8000. About four hours before last night's Kuiper launch, another load of 28 Starlink satellites were launched from Vandenberg.
Kuiper is an expensive undertaking, estimated at between $16.5 billion and $20 billion by the industry analytics firm Quilty Space. Quilty has concluded Amazon is spending $10 billion on launch alone, exceeding the company's original cost estimate for the entire program.
A Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station,
Florida, with 24 Kuiper satellites. It was the first mission for this booster,
landing successfully about eight minutes after liftoff. Credit: SpaceX
The guys at SpaceX must have loved that negotiation session.
ReplyDeleteElon now has all the makings of a Marvel Comics villain.
ReplyDeleteThis SpaceX and growing Starlink supremacy are real. He accomplished remarkable things, and now suddenly, he is a pariah.
He could turn in a second.
Starlink will soon ascend.
Amazon had to go with SpaceX because if they don't get enough of their constellation in orbit by a certain date, the government will cancel their license and Amazon will have to deorbit every one they have up there and reapply all over again.
ReplyDeleteThe original license for Kuiper centered upon Blue Origin getting New Glenn up and running years ago and launching once or twice a month initially building up to once a week. Yeah, right.
And, of course, SpaceX can launch under the 'keeping it internal' costs of Amazon using Blue Origin's Vulcan or 'not going to use SpaceX' costs of using ULA or ArianneSpace.
Hah. Must burn Bezo's butt to have to defer to SpaceX. And get it cheaper and faster and better than BO or ULA would be able to provide.
So, of course, SpaceX has to save their derriere. While still doing the launches underbudget and on/before cont
No Beans it can't be!! Cheaper, faster, better -- pick any two. That is how it is supposed to work. Reality has been defeated!
Delete(This was meant to be humor.)
Initially it does seem odd to launch for another who plans to be a direct competitor. Meanwhile, SpX gains expertise with every launch. Nothing gets up there without a launch.
ReplyDeleteWho would piggyback Kuiper on, say a nat'l sec satellite or a weather sat? Would a cargo mission to ISS? To launch multiple Kuiper sats requires their own launch, yes?
For now and the foreseeable future, SpX has most everyone by the short and curlies. Anything that might bring down SpX will come out of Wash. DC.
"Who would piggyback Kuiper on, say a nat'l sec satellite or a weather sat? Would a cargo mission to ISS? To launch multiple Kuiper sats requires their own launch, yes?"
DeleteSpaceX's Starlink launches depend strongly on the individual orbit - the specific spot in the constellation they're going to. I don't know enough specifics about the Kuiper system to know if they'd be the same way (I think that comes from Starlink using a low orbit to minimize latency of the connection). I can't see Starlink going on any of those shared launches, WeatherSat, launch to ISS, or anything. I'd say unless proven otherwise, Kuiper lives by the same rules.