I've mentioned meteorologist Ryan Maue on these pages several times (earliest post? I think) starting when he was a graduate student at Florida State University, one of the major meteorology departments that study hurricanes. Simply, in an era of insanity and blaming everything that happens on CO2 concentrations - followed by perennially making up new things to blame on CO2 - he has remained data-driven and therefore a voice of sanity.
Last Sunday, a piece on "Watts Up With That" referenced him extensively. "Ryan Maue on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Submarine Volcano." Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai erupted on January 13 of '22 and within a week was being noted as one of the most violent eruptions ever seen, with this startling statement from a group that monitors nuclear explosions.
Titled “A nuclear-test monitor calls Tonga volcano blast 'biggest thing that we've ever seen',” it reports that an international group that monitors for likely atomic detonations has reported that at every one of their sites around the world - 53 of them - the infrasonic wave from the Tongan volcano is the largest thing they've ever measured, even bigger than the Soviet Union's Tsar Bomba, the biggest nuclear detonation in history.
Dr. Maue opens the referred WUWT article saying that the initial data was analyzed and showed that 50 million metric tons of water were injected into the upper atmosphere by the eruption. Further analysis points to that figure being low by a factor of three.
New research suggests 150-million metric tons or almost 40 Trillion gallons of water vapor was injected into the upper-atmosphere. A lot of it is still up there floating around.
That much water injected into the stratosphere has never been observed. We're
in unknown territory.
So what? Water vapor is a potent "greenhouse gas," far more than that eebil debil CO2. Volcanoes are more widely known as a source of sulfur dioxide, SO2 which has the opposite effect of water vapor, cooling rather than warming. Hunga Tonga had about 2% of the amount of SO2 as Mt. Pinatubo.
Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo blast SO2 into the stratosphere creating a cooling climate shroud for 1-2 years.
Mt. Pinatubo erupted in 1991. Hunga Tonga had about 2% of the amount of SO2 as Mt. Pinatubo but an unprecedented amount of water vapor.
EOS, the online publication of the American Geophysical Union, says:
The eruption of Hunga-Tonga increased the water vapor mass in the stratosphere by 13%, and it will remain there for many years to come.
“The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era.”
Because of this, they say Hunga-Tonga may push the global temperature up by the dreaded 1.5 C (the AGU is fully onboard with the climate change hype) although still leaving us cooler than the Roman warming period and cooler still than other earlier warm periods. The water it injected into the stratosphere could affect weather for 5 to 7 years.
It's pretty obvious from this plot, but I'll say it anyway. The panic over warming is with respect to the coolest global temperatures in the last 10,000 years. It had better be warming, we're comparing temperatures to the Little Ice Age.
I've heard a lot about warm sea surface temperatures this hurricane season and it's possible this is an effect of the Hunga-Tonga eruption a year and a half ago.
Nobody talks about the positive aspect of all that water vapor. More... rain. Rain in unexpected places, like in deserts. Just look at what has happened in New England in the last week or so. Water vapor means water falling which means more rain and more cooling which means we will return slowly to the 'normal' temperatures and humidities.
ReplyDeleteOne way to investigate how a system works is to 'hit' it with an 'impulse', a short in time, large in size input, and see how the system reacts/oscillates/rings. Volcanoes can be that. Where's the step increase in temperature after a volcano put more greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere? Oopsie, what do you mean there is no change because living organisms sucked it all out? CO2 percentage is in the short term of years a dynamic equilibrium tug-of-war between plants, animals, and sinking carbonates into the ocean?
ReplyDeleteGore's movie conveniently had such an event just to the left of the 450K year timeline he showed. Funny how Gore spent screen time showing how folksy he was, and not how global average temp increased after that eruption.
Also about Sagan's claims of 'nuclear winter' after a nuclear war -- didn't WWII burn the European cities exactly like a nuke war would, but there was no temp decrease? Then one of the Gulf wars burned all the oil wells and similarly there was no temp change?
One major advantage of 2023 over previous societies is that, if you use your brain, you can figure out what is true and what is false.
We also burned the living daylights out of Japan, with no increase, and set off two atom bombs, with no increase, and between all the nuclear powers we set off a metric butt-load of nukes with no measurable increase.
DeleteSagan was an ass-hat, a glib used-car-salesman of a scientist.
Here in NE Midwestia, we haven't hit the 90 degree mark yet. Last year, we only had 3 days in the 90's, none of them above 93. When I was a kid, we would have seen 100 degrees by now.
ReplyDeleteright there with you. growing up in southern va we picked up hay all summer in 100 degree heat, moved irrigation pipe in the tobacco fields in 100 plus all summer. not too long ago we had ten days of 99-100 degrees after a derecho took out our power. yet the same reporters that lived thru that say "its record heat, unprecedented, etc" . now days if i hear those words i know bs is to follow.
DeleteThe hysteria continues about nothing. Conservation is a good idea, knocking back pollution is an excellent idea. There is nothing that we can do about deep coal seam fires or volcanos or the dust in space that we travel through and may impact the amount of light/heat from the Sun. The only reliable non-polluting energy source that is available 24/7/365 is nuclear energy. Desalinating sea water for uses is underway in many places on Earth. Using nuclear power to fuel that effort makes sense. Modern reactors are safe and do not need water for cooling so they can be sited anywhere and they can't go critical.
ReplyDeleteI am in Arizona and the local media is making a big deal about this "record" 30 days in a row with temperatures 110 degrees and above. But, that temperature, 110 degrees, was carefully selected to set that "record". It was selected to make sure that they had a headline. Yes we do have warmer temperatures for early Summer. Yes it has happened before, many times. And most importantly temperatures of 115 and above or typical for Summers in a La Nina year. Since the La Nina weather pattern is less common than the El Nino pattern is we have a few years in between the cycle to forget about these anomalies. This is what the MSM and the climate grifters depend on. The young who were eating pablum during the last La Nina, the adults who don't pay attention and others too busy in their lives to notice these patterns. They hope you are ignorant. Meanwhile it is still Summer here in the Valley of the Sun and it's going to be hot, just as it has been every Summer for the last 10,000 years.
ReplyDeleteThe record high ocean temperature fraud explained. “ A buoy in Manatee Bay managed by the Everglades National Park, is located north of Key Largo and indicated by the 2 red arrows in illustrations below. The official buoy data (upper left graph) shows water temperatures bounced between ~90°F and ~101 on consecutive two days then plummeted to 85-86°F over the following days! Clearly those water temperatures were being driven by dynamics other than rising CO2.” More at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/28/how-to-push-a-climate-crisis-hoax-floridas-record-ocean-temperature/
ReplyDeleteThings like that are very common. There's a story today about the little Italian Island of Sardinia setting a temperature record because the station is poorly sited too close to a road and in the midst of dense undergrowth.
DeleteAn all time high record for a park in Scotland was set when an ice cream truck parked near the temperature station, running the engine and the truck's refrigerator. In July of '18, there were reports that the all time world record temperature was broken, in Ouargla, Algeria, reporting a temperature of 124.3 degrees. The problem is the thermometer is located at an airport with a large military presence, right next to the tarmac. Guess what? Jet wash is hot.
The thing that got me following Watts Up With That was the Surface Stations Project, where volunteers went to all the weather measurement stations in the country. In approximate numbers, 80% violated the NOAA siting rules for those stations. Vast numbers were near air conditioner outdoor units or over black top instead of in a grassy field. This was around 2008. They redid the survey in the last year or two and now it's up to over 90% violate the NOAA rules.
It's bad data everywhere.
Here's the official weather station for Columbus, Ohio. Notice it's in the middle of the airport, over asphalt.
Deletehttps://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KCMH
This nicely shows what's driving the current climate hysteria.
ReplyDeleteThe IPCC will tell you point blank they're not about fixing weather, they're about redistributing income. See the top of this post at WUWT.
DeleteDifferent group, same Narrative.
DeleteThanks, lots of good info at that link.
DeleteEdisons famous invention is now verboten in Bidens Communist America
ReplyDeletehttps://www.newsnationnow.com/business/tech/energy-department-light-bulb-ban/