The week is off to a slow start with most talk still about Starship's FT-13
last Friday, with one or two smaller, less-interesting (at least to me)
stories. The big story about FT-13 is about the heat shield efforts the
company has been going through, and a conversation with a former NASA
engineer who studied heat shield materials for nearly four decades at
NASA Ames Research Center.
This expert warns that the current Starship heat shield tech is a “dead
end” for rapid reuse. Even video channel
Alpha Tech did a discussion that touched on the subject.
From the quote about, "nearly four decades at NASA", I have to assume that was starting before
the shuttles flew for the first time, so (in rough numbers) 1975 until 2015.
The design work was done (or declared that way) by the late '70s, and my
impression is they may have done some monitoring of the shuttle heat shields
but this wasn't like "continuous process improvement" as much as it was
"keeping an eye on things."
So what's up? Why? A point both Alpha Tech's video and Ars Technica's article
make is the Shuttles had an aluminum chassis that the heat shield was mounted
on. SpaceX uses stainless steel, but not a conventional
austenitic
alloy like 304. That means that they developed their own alloy with improved
properties (including cost!) over the common, COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf)
alloys. This source says
SpaceX patented it as 30x. (Do I need to mention that Musk seems to like the letter X in product and
business names?)
The powerful advantage to using stainless steel instead of something like the
aluminum alloys the Space Shuttles used is a much higher tolerance for heat. On
top of that, it's better at the cryogenic temperatures of the fuels and
oxidizers the ship uses.
“Starship’s current thermal protection system is a dead-end for all missions
that require full and rapid reusability,” Dan Rasky, a former NASA engineer
who studied heat shield materials for nearly four decades at NASA Ames
Research Center, told Ars. Rasky is credible: He co-invented PICA, the
material used for Crew Dragon’s heat shield.
NASA confronted this same issue half a century ago during development of the
Space Shuttle, which used thousands of lightweight ceramic tiles to insulate
the vehicle’s aluminum structure. Although the tiles worked fairly well, the
US space agency was never able to crack the code on “rapid” reuse. Each tile
required post-flight inspections, so reuse of Space Shuttle orbiters
remained expensive and time-consuming.
...
However, according to a new analysis by Rasky and two other space industry
officials, former NASA astronaut Charles Camarda and the head of the NASA
transition team for the Trump-Vance White House, Charles Miller, significant
challenges remain for rapidly reusing Starship.
They give us a handy photo to concentrate on. Notice that whitish streaks seem
to diverge from edges and corners (points) on the hexagonal tiles. Seams or
boundaries between the tiles. That implies that it's the super hot gas from
the upper atmosphere, melting and pushing out material from under the
tiles. SpaceX has shown in their own videos that they put something like a
white plastic foam under the tiles.
A close-up of Starship's heat shield after it landed in the Indian Ocean last
week. Credit: SpaceX
The problem is that, with the signs of damage, such a heat shield would
appear to require a fair amount of inspection and refurbishment before
another launch. In other words, SpaceX has a ways to go to reach “full and
rapid” reuse of Starship. “Full” means reusing both the booster and the
Starship upper stage, and “rapid” reuse means turning each Starship around
in days or weeks, instead of months, at considerable expense.
Here, the person that's saying this is completely missing the
story. “Full rapid reuse” doesn't mean landing and flying again “in days
or weeks” to Elon and crew. It means taking off again in a few hours. More
like a commercial jet than a spaceship.
On various podcasts and X social media postings, SpaceX founder Elon Musk
has repeatedly stated that solving the reusable heat shield problem is one
of the toughest problems the company faces. Back in February
on a podcast with Dwarkesh Patel,
Musk expounded on this, saying a reusable heat shield is “the biggest
problem that remains” for Starship. “If you want to be able to land it,
refill propellant, and fly again, you can’t do this laborious inspection of
40,000 tiles type of thing,” he said.
The Ars article reduces this down to the reasonable conclusion that
Starship's heat shield will likely be good enough to deploy the third
generation Starlink constellation like the ones FT-13 carried to orbit. But
the experts are concerned that it will be unable to hit the high flight rate
needed, with several hundred to thousands of low-cost launches annually, for large
settlements on the Moon and Mars, orbital data centers, or large-scale
space-based solar power.
This sounds like the kind of "advancing the art and science of spaceflight"
that we think NASA could help with, but the problem with that is that NASA
dropped this kind of research decades ago.
The experts noted that NASA has not made substantial investments in thermal
protection research for vehicles entering from low-Earth orbit (speeds of
Mach 25) for three decades. The underlying technologies on Starship, they
note, are all based on work done for the space shuttle, National Aerospace
Plane, or X-33 programs. No one today, they said, is seriously investing in
new, advanced thermal materials for orbital reentry.
I think that SpaceX has shown that they might be the best place to go for this
sort of development. I've seen video clips where Elon discussed how they've
altered the recipe for the heat shield tiles and gotten better performance.
Perhaps they just haven't gone far enough down that adventure. Or perhaps it's
something else entirely. Maybe instead of the white plastic foam sheet they
have the tiles mounted on, perhaps they need a layer of something else
there. Another tile? In other words, a sandwich of tile, foam, tile, and
foam?