Is the second New Glenn flight a launch to Mars?

In August of 2024 the expectation was that the first flight of Blue Origin's New Glenn would carry a NASA mission to Mars called ESCAPADE.  When the launch window started shrinking and there was no rocket to ride, ESCAPADE's mission was quietly dropped.  Rumors surfaced recently that the mission is looking toward launching later this year on the second New Glenn mission. 

The launch in August of '24 was never obtained for a variety of reasons, but it's now being mentioned as a payload for the second flight of New Glenn.  Since last year's launch window would have been one of the "almost every two years" minimum transit time to Mars windows, if it gets launched this fall, it will take longer to get to Mars, but it should able to get there safely.  The delay is almost good for ESCAPADE.

Had ESCAPADE launched last October, the spacecraft would now be nearing Mars and beginning scientific operations. However, because they missed the Mars "window" last year, they will have to wait for the next one to open late this year. Thus, the nominal plan involves a launch this fall, with the spacecraft now not reaching Mars until later in 2027.

Blue Origin has put together a tentative schedule with four New Glenn missions within the next year.  Ars Technica's sources cautioned that the manifest could be moved around due to the readiness of the next New Glenn vehicles and their payloads.

• New Glenn 2:  ESCAPADE (fall 2025)
• New Glenn 3:  Firefly's Elytra orbital transfer vehicle (end of 2025, early 2026)
• New Glenn 4:  Blue Moon MK1 lander (first half of 2026)
• New Glenn 5:  First batch of 49 Amazon Project Kuiper satellites (mid-2026)

The references to "first half of 2026" and "mid-2026" lead me to believe this is through around this time in 2026, so four missions within the next year.

Notably, the company plans to launch each new rocket as soon as it is ready to fly to gather data about the vehicle's performance, attempt to catch and reuse first stages, and move closer to a rapid launch cadence. Therefore, if a customer payload is not ready, the company has also developed an inspirational mission called "Cube for the Future," which appears to be part of the company's initiative to inspire future generations to pursue careers in science. This may also fly as a rideshare on one of the launches listed above.

Until the failure of the last four Starship test flights, I think the vast majority of industry watchers would have thought SpaceX had an unbreakable lead over Blue Origin and their attempt at a lunar lander.  Now?  I'm not that sure.  SpaceX's lead doesn't look so insurmountable. 

Dave Limp, Blue Origin CEO, left, and founder Jeff Bezos observe the first New Glenn rocket on its launch pad Wednesday at CCSFS.  Image credit: Jeff Bezos via Instagram.

Barring a major setback, it now appears highly likely that Blue Origin will beat SpaceX in landing a vehicle on the lunar surface. Due to the struggles with development of the Starship vehicle—whether on the ground or in space, the last four Starship upper stages have been lost before achieving a nominal success—some industry officials believe Blue Origin now has a realistic chance to compete with SpaceX in the effort to land NASA astronauts on the Moon as part of the Artemis Program.

Author Eric Berger points out that both companies are developing large, ambitious vehicles—SpaceX with Starship, called the Human Landing System - and Blue Origin with its MK2 lander—but Blue Origin's vehicle is somewhat less technically challenging.  Plus, while Elon Musk has been very vocal about his desire to make human life multiplanetary and "Occupy Mars," Jeff Bezos has come across as far more committed to a lunar program.  I can't imply any sort of understanding of these two guys, but if Bezos sees an opportunity to finally beat his rival in space, does he jump and go for it?  Could be...