It's not like the weather has been that oppressive, it's just that we still haven't had a run of days where it stayed under 80 all day long. A few weeks ago, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) posted their forecast for winter, giving us a forecast of warmer than normal. This is the graphic they published widely:
Since I just misread this, let me point out my mistake. The key to interpreting the colors is at the bottom right of the graphic and you can see that it's saying there's a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures, not that the temperatures will be 40-50% above normal. To get into the "likely above normal", requires the third color down, distinctively redder than the color over pretty much all of peninsular Florida. My inner ackshually guy says if there's a 50% chance of above normal temperatures, doesn't that say that there's a 50% chance of temperatures that are normal or below?
Our coolest month of the year is generally January. While I've woken up to frost visible on the neighbors' roofs as early December 7, I can't recall that once in the 9 winters I've been retired. I think we had frost, typically one day, maybe 3 years of the 9. This is why I've joked in comments elsewhere around the 'net that on my planet, water only occurs as a liquid or a gas. Solid water can be created with appliances but is not found in nature.
Starting this Thursday, we're going into the coolest forecast week probably since last March. This is lifted from the Weather Underground 10-day forecast at Melbourne International Airport.
Graph of temperature vs time for the three days. The vertical lines are midnight, but you realized that since they divide the days from each other.
I know this is a strange world for many of you, and we greatly appreciate the days under 80 degrees, but just a few months ago, that was a common overnight low temperature for August. Those of you watching the beautiful colors of fall, those aren't common at all here. Yeah, there's a handful of trees around the county that change colors, and we have a maple in our front yard that does that. Peak colors tend to be in January and are pretty disappointing for most people who are used to the fall colors in other parts of the country.
We will have rain overnight tonight and then tomorrow. The clearing skies and nicer weather start Tuesday. Hope it's enjoyable where you are!
Just remember that a 50% chance says "we have no idea".
ReplyDeleteThey just don't feel that they get worshipped enough if they say, "what's the winter going to be like? Flip a coin."
DeleteNot that we can really trust "alter the data and delete the originals" NOAA.
ReplyDeleteA farmer friend is betting on a mild winter this year. He is planting 50% more Vidalia Onions this winter. Current harvesting includes peanuts, soybean, sweat potato, and Asian persimmons. Cotton and pecan still need to be done along with field prep for onions.
ReplyDeleteThere is a similar forecast for Bandera TX where I live. We have had freezing weather here as early as late November when we got "ice flowers" (look it up as it takes too long to describe).
ReplyDeleteIt took me until this morning to remember to go look that up. I've seen pictures of it but didn't know the name ice flowers. Since the page I looked up said the ground had to be warm enough for the water to not be frozen, but the air had to be cold enough to freeze water vapor, it sounds like we might get those around here. It would probably be more productive to look in the marsh areas around lakes.
DeleteWell,
ReplyDelete"Spring/Summer's gone,
Fall has fell.
Winter's here,
And it's colder'n hell..."
Any day now !