Today's Space Race is real, and an interesting step is looming

It's no secret that there's an undercurrent of the 1960s Space Race to the moon going on as our returns to the moon start to play out. It's also no secret that what's looking to be the ultimate target of the next round of missions isn't the large, open areas on the Earth-facing side of the Moon, like the Sea of Tranquility was for Apollo 11. Showing up in nearly every large story of the next manned mission to the Moon are references to landing near the lunar South Pole. 

There are big, practical reasons for choosing the South Pole: the day to night temperature swings aren't as large as those in the huge Mare (seas) of the middle latitudes, and there appears to be large amounts of water (ice) available there. 

Currently, the Space Race is that two lunar landers are set to visit Shackleton crater, that is actually on the south pole. 

The two landers will arguably be the most ambitious robotic missions ever sent to the Moon. The Endurance spacecraft, built by Jeff Bezos’ space company Blue Origin, will become the largest lunar lander in history, exceeding the size of NASA’s Apollo lunar module that ferried crews to and from the lunar surface more than 50 years ago. China’s Chang’e 7 mission will feature a smaller lander, but the project also includes an orbiter, rover, and a hopper drone to scout for hidden ice deposits. 

Blue Origin's Endurance lander has just completed some extensive thermal/vacuum tests at Johnson Space Center in Houston. The tests were completed last week, and the spacecraft left Houston on Saturday. It's currently en route from Houston to here (Florida's Space Coast) for final preparations to launch on the company’s heavy-lift New Glenn rocket. NextSpaceflight doesn't show anything about a Blue Origin Endurance launch. Two days before Endurance's trip began, so last Thursday (Apr 9), Chang’e 7 arrived at a spaceport on Hainan Island in the South China Sea to be integrated with China’s own heavy-lifter, the Long March 5. NextSpaceflight shows the Long March 5 but only says No Earlier Than 2026. The source doesn't say much about a launch date other than "later this year."

Shackleton Crater is about 13 miles (21 kilometers) wide, with a surface area roughly the same as the cities of Philadelphia, Las Vegas, or Detroit. The crater measures 14,000 feet (4.2 kilometers) deep. If Endurance and Chang’e 7 land on or near the crater rim, as expected, it would be the first time landers from different nations have operated simultaneously so close to one another on another planetary body.
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The highest crests of Shackleton’s rim offer the advantage of near-continuous sunlight, providing a lander or future Moon base a stable source of solar power right next to a crater floor in eternal shadow, where temperatures are cold enough to preserve ancient ice deposits. The Moon’s polar cold traps, including Shackleton, are attractive targets for future exploration. The ice at these locations could be harvested to supply drinking water, oxygen, and rocket fuel for a lunar outpost.

A mosaic of the Shackleton Crater showcases the power of two lunar orbiting cameras working together to reveal unprecedented detail of the lunar south pole region. Scientists created this mosaic using images from NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the ShadowCam instrument on South Korea's Danuri orbiter, revealing the dark interior of Shackleton in new detail. Credit: NASA/KARI/ASU

Part of the reason for Blue Origin sending their Endurance lander is that it's essentially their Blue Moon Mark 1 lander that they're preparing for the Artemis lunar landing mission next year.

Blue Origin has not publicly identified the exact landing site for the Endurance test flight, other than saying it will target the Moon’s south pole region. In a social media post last year, Bezos said it would land “near Shackleton Crater.” The south pole lies directly on the crater rim. Endurance will carry a suite of NASA-funded stereo cameras to observe interactions between the lander’s engine plume and lunar soil, along with a laser ranging reflector to help scientists pinpoint the craft’s precise location on the Moon. Blue Origin has not yet revealed what else the mission might do after landing, but getting to the surface intact and upright is the primary goal for Endurance. 

The Chinese officials haven't publicly identified much detail about their mission either. They have said that one of their goals is to “directly confirm the existence and source of water ice” in the south pole region. Chang'e 7 will deploy a rover and a “mini-flying probe” after landing. The rover and drone will carry instruments to analyze and measure the abundance of water ice in lunar soil in and around Shackleton Crater. 

Image of the south pole area from Sky & Telescope magazine.  The Diviner instrument aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter imaged the temperatures of the south polar region, shown here. Shackleton crater is at the bottom center, and the south pole is where the thin white lines intersect. The upper left corner of Shackleton crater seems to be the pole.

With both landers targeting the same crater it only seems logical to ask what happens if they interfere with each other? 

The United States and China are parties to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits claims of territorial sovereignty on the Moon and other celestial bodies. But the treaty allows for bases, and it requires parties to the agreement act with “due regard” to the interests of other nations.

In an article published last year, Michelle Hanlon, a professor of air and space law at the University of Mississippi, outlined the advantages of being first at the Moon. The first country to succeed in placing a nuclear reactor on the Moon, for example, could “shape the norms for expectations, behaviors, and legal interpretations,” she wrote.

These first-mover advantages could extend to future lunar bases, mining, and other resource extraction activities on the Moon. NASA has proposed the concept of “safety zones” to avoid interference between the operations of different nations on the Moon.

Lawyers. In my mind, I'm hearing the Morgan and Morgan commercials about "when your property on the moon is damaged by somebody touching it without your permission..."