A look at the coming hurricane season

Since the usual space news stories are on the small side, I'm going to divert to a different sort of science - atmospheric physics and weather. That was driven by it being the time of year to ensure we're ready for the coming Atlantic hurricane season which starts on June 1. And that's partly motivated because storms before the season officially starts happen often enough that they capture attention in planning.

I think it should be obvious if you've read here before, but I should say that I'm not a meteorologist or a hurricane expert in any sense. I'm just someone who has lived through many hurricanes because of growing up in Florida and being 72 years old. The state of Florida takes hurricane preparation seriously, especially with the numbers of people moving in from the overbearing-to-collapsing blue states, so they publish a variety of websites with information on preparing. Like the Plan & Prepare website here. 

Whether you follow these storms or not,  you may have heard about a persistent (if not permanent) weather condition that goes back and forth between el Niño and la Niña states, and is called the el Niño/Southern Oscillation or ENSO. This is seen primarily in sea surface temperatures along the equator between South America and Pacific islands. In the el Niño pattern the temperatures in that belt are warmer than "usual" and in the la Niña state they're cooler. (and I'll drop the accent marks over the "n" from here on)

Earlier in the year, we were told to expect a la Nina pattern this season, but that has been reversed to el Nino with some sources warning of a "Super El Nino". In general, in Florida and the SE US, el Nino seasons reduce our chances of a hurricane. The National Weather Service ENSO prediction (April update) doesn't sound like the "Super El Nino" prediction.  

I've mentioned meteorologist Ryan Maue on these pages several times (earliest post? I think) starting when he was a graduate student at Florida State University, one of the major meteorology departments that study hurricanes. Simply, in an era of insanity and blaming everything that happens on CO₂ concentrations - followed by perennially making up new things to blame on CO₂ - he has remained data-driven and therefore a voice of sanity. Ryan keeps track of a metric they call Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE and provides this summary showing it's a far below average year. 

I think when the year to date ACE is 12% of a normal year, that's far below average.

The next thing I like to keep track of is the predictions for the hurricane activity for the season. One of the big names in doing this is Colorado State University, and Dr Phil Klotzbach issues numbers annually. His predictions are for lower activity than average, but spread over the entire Atlantic basin from Africa to the US and the west ends of the ocean, the Gulf of America, and the Caribbean, there are variations to keep track of, too. 

While the photo predicts every line in that chart to be lower than normal, it's important to realize that there's also luck involved and it's better to be more prepared than you need to be. Like everything else in life. 

To borrow some of the notes that appear below that photo:

Primary Drivers: The "El Niño" Factor
The defining feature of the 2026 season is the transition from a weak La Niña to a moderate-to-strong El Niño during the peak months (August–October).

• Wind Shear: El Niño typically creates high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic's Main Development Region (MDR). This "rips" storms apart before they can organize.
  
• Atmospheric Stability: Sinking air (subsidence) over the Caribbean and Atlantic is expected to suppress storm formation further.
  
• Atlantic Temperatures: While the Atlantic remains warm, it is not as anomalously hot as in recent record-breaking years, and the shear from El Niño is expected to be the dominant "hurricane slayer" this season.

In my years of observing, I've noticed that el Nino moves the tendency for storms to "re-curve" to a northerly path and then toward the east farther out to the east than in la Nina years. Yeah, I tend to get an early sigh of relief when I see predictions for an el Nino year.

Historical Analogs
CSU identifies years with similar climate setups to help predict 2026’s behavior. The primary analog years are:

• 2006 and 2009: Very quiet seasons for Florida landfall due to strong El Niño conditions.
  
• 2015: An extremely quiet year for the U.S. East Coast.
  
• 2023: A high storm count (20) but mostly storms that stayed out to sea, though Florida’s Big Bend was hit by Hurricane Idalia.
  
• Quality over Quantity: A below-average forecast does not mean zero risk. Forecasters frequently cite 1992 (Hurricane Andrew) as the ultimate warning: a very quiet, below-average year that produced one of the most devastating Category 5 landfalls in Florida history.
  
• Western Formation: Because El Niño suppresses storms in the deep tropics, 2026 may see more "homegrown" development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. These storms often have shorter lead times for us here in Florida.

So that's an overview of what we know about the coming hurricane season. It's always appropriate to keep an eye on the weather patterns and the one week forecasts with probabilities of development. Much like a loonie with a gun and intent to do something violent, it only takes one.