Here's one of those news stories that I keep an eye out for but isn't what I consider particularly big and important news.
By now, I assume most people remotely interested in the launch industry or space industry have heard of and are maybe even tracking that SpaceX is going public and is going to launch an IPO, or Initial Public Offering, of shares of their stock.
Space.com carried the story that SpaceX is going to start selling shares of their stock, this coming Friday, June 12th, and they're expected to become the 7th most valuable company in the US at $1.77 trillion.
The company revealed this week that it plans to sell shares at $135 apiece during the IPO, which will occur June 12 when SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.
That share price would give the company a valuation of $1.77 trillion, according to CNBC. Just six American companies are worth more: NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon and semiconductor manufacturer Broadcom. [From 1 to 6 in order - SiG]
Now I personally don't get involved in trading and I'm not going to play in the IPO, so I don't need to tell you, "dammit, Jim, I'm an engineer, not a daytrader! Don't put any weight on financial stuff I say." That said, the reference link to CNBC has an article that says one of their experts says the IPO is overpriced and he's not buying. Their article is entitled, "‘Dean of Valuation’ Aswath Damodaran is not buying SpaceX: ‘Too richly priced’". They may not be expecting their article to change the results of the IPO, but the market value isn't settled until the people bidding on the prices of shares are settled and SpaceX may well end up being worth more or less than that predicted $1.77 trillion.
The market has the final word. Just as every launch is on schedule until the weather speaks, we won't know if SPCX is valued at $1.77 trillion until the dust settles on Friday night - NASDAQ time.
My main concern is that this isn't really an IPO for the SpaceX we've come to know and admire. They have diversified beyond launch and their Starlink telecommunications into artificial intelligence.
SpaceX recently acquired xAI, the startup that Musk founded in 2023. xAI owns X (the social media platform formerly known as Twitter), built the generative AI chatbot Grok and operates Colossus, a supercomputer cluster in Tennessee.
You've probably heard that they intend to put AI data centers in space. Not one or two - a million AI data centers. They're undoubtedly better suited to do this than any other launch provider but that doesn't mean it's a given that they'll put it all up and everything will work.
My bias is that I think the whole AI thing going on is the biggest hype cycle in history. There are things that AI seems to be good at, but too much of what we see/hear/read is pi in the sky, if you'll pardon the John Wilder joke.
Starship Flight Test 12 takes to the air back on May 22nd. (Image credit: SpaceX)
If data centers are in space, then computer technicians are going to commute to work on a rocket to change bad hardware? Wearing space suits? Space is a good location because solar power is so energy dense, and radiating that power back out to vacuum after it makes one pass through the chips is so easy? Putting it in space is more convenient than putting it in a desert, where the rattlesnakes and tortoises won't vote to ban development? Although I suppose if it's solar powered than at sunset your browser will show a test pattern and play the national anthem. Since Mad Max was set in Australia, then there's your desert and the whole continent can be turned into world government Disneyland backstage, guarded by sharks with lasers, and the weather balloon from The Prisoner.
ReplyDeleteOh, yeah. Part of why I think it's the biggest hype cycle in history. Someone's going to come out on top of the fundraising hype, and a lot of money is going to change hands, the question is whether it's going to be good for anything. And a lot of pictures of pretty women with six fingers or their feet pointing backwards will be generated that flood the 'net.
DeleteThere is apparently a polar orbit where the satellites stay in full sun, 24/7/365.
ReplyDeleteThe data center satellites (datallites?) will presumably be overbuilt with redundant systems and with a life expectancy of only a few years, consistent with chip improvements. No orbital techs needed.
Is it worth it? Dunno. It is a bubble, obviously, but Musk has an excellent long term track record.
One thing to remember is that Musk, Altman, Huang and the rest of the connected billionaire owners all have utterly unrestricted access to advice from utterly uncensored models *right now*. Are they using it to predict the best future tech investment path strategy or to perfect a pump and dump scheme against the stock market?