About that "Sunday Chang'e 7" mission

Fuggedaboutit.  Word broke yesterday that the mission had been scrubbed and reset for Monday. As of this morning (US East coast time) the followup is that the Chang'e 7 mission has been cancelled and pushed out into 2027. 

China’s “Manned Space” program issued a terse announcement on Sunday regarding its much-anticipated Chang’e 7 lunar exploration mission.

The agency stated: “In keeping with the principle of proceeding prudently and reliably, and ensuring absolute success, after a comprehensive assessment it has been determined that the Chang’e 7 mission does not meet the conditions for launch and therefore cannot be carried out during the planned launch window this year.”

Maybe it's just me, but when I read something like that, I get the feeling that either nobody found a couple of big problems with the launch vehicle or the various payloads (lunar orbiter, lander, rover, and a mini-hopper probe) that were suddenly discovered in the past couple of days, or the mission was just pencil-whipped every step of the way despite someone somewhere being aware of conditions that they never should have tried to launch with. 

Eric Berger at Ars Technica speculates that the reason for the scrub of Sunday's launch is a typhoon in the vicinity, Typhoon Narra (Tropical Storm 18W (Narra) Warning #13), and the long range forecast shows Narra making a big loop in the Gulf of Tonkin - at least through landfall either late Tuesday or Wednesday the 26th. 

But that's not the big thing. 

Although official Chinese sources have provided no confirmed information, there has been social media chatter indicating that another suitable launch window may not open until next February or March. Why so long? It likely is a combination of factors, including sunlight conditions in polar landing zones as well as the mission plan that requires a 90-day lunar orbit reconnaissance before landing.

Another, lesser possibility, is that some technical issue was discovered at the last minute with either the complex Chang’e 7 payload, or the rocket. The large Long March 5 rocket shares an engine, the YF-100, with the Long March 7A vehicle that was lost during ascent two weeks ago. This engine issue seems unlikely to be the cause of the delay, however, as China had been proceeding toward launch in recent days.

The rush to get this mission off to land near the South Pole (Shackleton crater) is a core part of the 21st century moon race. No country has successfully landed a lunar probe in the south polar region. 

The delay of Chang’e 7 opens up the possibility that NASA could reach this terrain first, with the initial launch of Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 vehicle. This large lander will carry two NASA probes to the South Pole. 

Blue Origin was on track to launch Blue Moon lander this year, before the New Glenn's explosion on their launch site at the end of May. At the moment, there's not an announced date for that mission although Blue Origin continues to stick with their previous statements - that New Glenn will fly before the end of '26. It seems to me to be too early to confidently predict when New Glenn will be launching again.

Shaded relief image of Shackleton crater at the Moon's south pole, with false-color interior constructed from elevation measurements by the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter Credit: NASA/GSFC/SVS. Image cropped and reduced in size here to fit with Blogger image requirements.