Going back to the "good ole" format...
SpaceX has bumped Flight 14 out almost a week
Six days, to be exact. The new liftoff date is Monday, September 28, and the time is "same as before" (8:15 EDT). No reason for delay was stated. That said, the September 22nd launch was conditioned by the statement of "pending approval" from the required agencies so perhaps the issue was SpaceX hadn't gotten approval from the agencies and they're giving those agencies some time.
China wants a Raptor 3 equivalent
The Chinese launch startup Space Pioneer, which has raised nearly $1 billion, showcased a new design for its Tianhuo-21 methane-liquid oxygen engine this week, which was subsequently shared on social media. From outward appearances, the engine looks strikingly similar to SpaceX’s Raptor 3 engine. Its thrust, 2,450 kN at sea level, is also virtually identical to that of the Raptor 3.
Interestingly, Elon Musk said, "I wouldn't do that if I were you" (in more polite language).
Would it be difficult to replicate? … In response to Space Pioneer’s engine design, SpaceX founder Elon Musk said copying Raptor 3 would not be easy. “I would recommend against a new company trying to make Raptor 3,” he said on X. “While it appears simple on the outside (necessary to survive extreme heat without a heat shield), the inside has very complex geometry that can only be manufactured using highly modified 3D metal printing.”
Wait! ... China copying things from America? Who'da thunk it?? I'd recommend they test it as hard as they can figure out how to. From as far away as possible.
I took a picture of a Raptor 1 next to a Raptor 2 and added a newer (and color) picture of the Raptor 3. The change from 2 to 3 isn't as dramatic as the Raptor 1 to 2, but the simplification is visible. Yes, those are Raptors 1, 2, 3 from left to right.
The "tyranny of the rocket equation" holds for rocket engines, too. Every pound taken out of an engine also saves the amount of fuel that has to be carried to lift that engine's extra pound.
Add Blue Origin to the list of companies studying newer, better engines
One of the big phrases that has been emphasized lately has been, "full-flow staged combustion." Blue Origin and the Rocket and Space Propulsion Division of the Air Force Research Laboratory at Edwards Air Force Base have announced an expanded private-public partnership to develop new rocket propulsion technologies, the company said this week.
The new agreement comes as “we work to develop next-generation rocket propulsion technologies,” said Nicholas Robertson, senior vice president of engines at Blue Origin. “Studying these historic and technical artifacts grounds our engineering models in real government research.”
The Blue Origin news release notes that the Air Force lab has done pioneering work in oxygen-rich and full-flow staged combustion technologies. The company said it would also continue to collaborate on testing and maturing the BE-7 lunar lander rocket engine with the Air Force at the Area 1-42 High Altitude Rocket Test Facility at Edwards.
I wonder if SpaceX would consider licensing out the Falcon 9 program? And the Dragon, etc. "Come on down to Elon's Rocket Pad! Free hotdogs for the kids!"
ReplyDeleteElon’s comment is interesting. He’s spoken before about the complexity of the build and start-up / re-start of Raptor 3 in what is already the complex area that is engine development. It’s taken many, many years for SpaceX to refine the Raptor to the level of sophistication that it is today. In an analogous way, Raptor is a 21st century achievement to John Harrison’s marine chronometer innovation in the 18th century. There’s an image here showing Harrison’s design progress:
ReplyDeletehttps://gnyql.gamblingexposed.org/marine-chronometer-inventor-inventeur-du-chronometre-de-marine/
If you are ever in London, be sure to visit the Royal Museums at Greenwich and the Royal Observatory there. It’s a fantastic record of Harrison’s work and the foundations of marine navigation and astronomy.
China, I’m sure will develop their own, and they probably already have structural designs based on Raptor 3, but it’s the materials, software and more importantly, the developmental experience and iterative learning which are critical in extreme engineering innovation that SpaceX have racked up which is going to be the rate limiting factor,
Just checked the link - it may be wrong. Try this:
ReplyDeletehttps://oracleoftime.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/John-Harrison-H1-H2-H3-H4-Marine-Chronometers-768x768.jpg
I wonder if someone at SpaceX leaked the plans?
ReplyDeleteI'm sure various companies and countries are targeting SpaceX and it's employees.
But if they did the traditional Chinese thing and copied the outside, as Musk warns, they could be headed for "interesting times".
Jonathan
My perception of "the traditional Chinese thing" is that someone loyal to the CCP who has American citizenship gets a job and works long enough to get every piece of information on whatever the target is and sends it back. Every piece of the engine, inside and out, is copied as best they can.
DeleteThe "tyranny of the rocket equation" is kind of analogous to an Infantry saying: Ounces equal pounds, and pounds equal pain.
ReplyDeleteLeigh
Whitehall, NY
A professor of mine in an introductory class once said that the "dirty little secret" of Aerospace Engineering is that our vehicles are only as good as our materials science.
ReplyDeleteThe tech espionage of the Chinese is extraordinary (as is the aversion to admitting it in the west), but they still can't make military jet engines to western standards, after half a century of effort.
You are correct.
DeleteI worked in a precision machine shop and the very first thing was material certification. Basically, the who, what, where,when the material was formed, how it was formed, heat codes. Composition and every process to obtain what you need to have quality.
And until SpaceX developed a good working full-flow engine, the industry pretty much wrote it off as too hard to do. Again, a working demonstration is worth an encyclopedia full of expert opinions.
ReplyDeleteNow everybody wants to, for the few extra percentage points of efficiency. Ain't competition a bitch....?
Is there any "national security" "secret" the "US" has been able to keep for more than a week? Why would anyone think "China" doesn't already possess blueprints of Raptor 3 and the tooling and machines to make it?
ReplyDeleteWhy would anyone think Musk is announcing the envelope around his secret? Maybe the actual secret is that they smear it with mayonnaise as a lubricant and flux during construction. That would set up competitors to chase red herrings in shape fidelity.
China's schtick is to innovate in production, rather than innovating the produced object. How soon before SpaceX opens an assembly line in China?
Are you kidding? Musk's whole main thing is PRODUCTION. Starship systems are being produced in mass, including the engines. He intends launches every day by a system that will have 42 engines...you don't think that won't require a huge production line?
DeleteAnd having the shape of a thing does NOT give you the metallurgy of the thing. Even if they have a sample, they may not be able to replicate it. China is also famous for VERY BAD METALS that have no strength or lifetime.
And in case you didn't know, Musk already HAS an assembly line in China...it makes cars.