Monday, December 23, 2024

I Suppose It's not a Bad Time...

... to have our Month of WTF??!!?? that I talked about Friday.  Two of the things that bit the big one this month are a small one, our bedroom fan, and a big one, our TV.  The fan is still limping along on its replacement, our hurricane prep fan which runs on either Ryobi "One+" 18V batteries or the 120V outlet (AC), and I haven't gone looking for a replacement, yet. 

The TV, though, is a big one.  Last Sunday night, the 15th, the TV was on and everything was normal. I left the room for a while (it was something like "Fast and Furious 28") and the set had a sudden loss of picture quality - darker and just "not quite right."  Colors are wrong as well as brightness and contrast. Over the course of the next few days, I tried to research this sort of issue and tried to see if there was something I could do to fix it.  The old TV was a Hitachi “48 inch class” HD set (an inch class means the diagonal dimension of the display is plus or minus 1/2 inch from that size- which means, in turn, it's sure to be closer to 47-1/2" than 48-1/2") and I found the date we bought it in my old checkbook. It was July of 2017, so the set is 7-1/2 years old. 

I started out in electronics as a hobby at around age 12, and once I could work on things without killing myself, I used to fix TVs. This was in the vacuum tube days, back when the corner drugstore would have a tube tester near the front of the store, so I have some time working on TVs. Everything I worked on was a black&white TV, but I fixed a few of those including some with fairly involved problems so it wasn't all replacing bad tubes.

Last time I had a TV that needed repair, I just bought a new one.  That's how we got this Hitachi set.  So after a couple of days poking around trying to find ideas on how to fix it, we decided to see what a replacement costs. 

I suppose it's not a bad time to be shopping because everyone is claiming some sort of "special deal" on TVs and it's a matter of finding something you like.   

After a couple of days of looking and a couple of days deciding, we went to pick up a Roku smart TV.  While I started out completely opposed to a smart TV due to privacy concerns, we've been driving TVs with a Roku streaming device since about 2003 so it's not like we're going to get exposed to a whole new world. 

Screen capture from the online ad at BestBuy.  

The part of the ad page that I edited out was the part describing my options.  I could (1) go pick it up in the store, (2) go to a designated parking space and have them bring it out to me or (3) not leave the house and have them deliver it tomorrow.  I went with #1.  Getting the TV running and all of my services playing was pretty easy, took around an hour, and inconveniences were few.  Those mostly involved walking to another room to look up something.

Getting the 33% discount shown in the ad is a pretty good starting point and the Hitachi we replaced was smaller and quite a bit more expensive when we bought it in '17.  Add to the "smaller and more expensive" that the higher price didn't include the Roku streaming hardware, that brought the cost of the older setup even higher.  It makes this set seem like a pretty good deal. 



Sunday, December 22, 2024

Small Space News Story Roundup 48

The Big Story I was keeping an eye on never materialized - I thought there was going be a static fire of New Glenn on Saturday evening but it never happened.  That video is four hours long and the guys narrating the video talk about "they could still fire this puppy up" for at least the last two hours.  (Disclaimer: nobody actually said those exact words.)

So some other little stories, mostly from the Rocket Report

ArianeSpace plans to test their reusable rocket in '25

Back in 2019, Ariane announced plans to build a reusable rocket patterned after the Falcon 9. When the ESA signed the contract with ArianeGroup for the Themis program in 2020, they had said they would do the initial low-altitude hop tests by 2022. Clearly they're running two years late, double the scheduled time. 

ArianeGroup has brought the main elements of the Themis reusable booster demonstrator together for the first time in France during a "full-fit check," European Spaceflight reports. This milestone paves the way for the demonstrator’s inaugural test, which is expected to take place in 2025. Themis, which is funded by the European Space Agency, is designed to test vertical launch and landing capabilities with a new methane-fueled rocket engine. According to ESA, the full-fit check is one of the final steps in the development phase of Themis.

The first up-and-down hops will be based at the Esrange Space Center in Sweden, and will use the vehicle ArianeGroup is assembling now in France. A second Themis rocket will be built for medium-altitude tests from Esrange, and finally, a three-engine version of Themis will fly on high-altitude tests from the Guiana Space Center in South America. At the rate this program is proceeding, it's fair to ask if Themis will complete a full-envelope launch and landing demonstration before the end of the decade, if it ever does.

The only image I have of the Themis, a concept rendering from 2019. Why, yes, it sure does look like the Falcon 9's landing structure.

When you need a responsive launch provider, who you gonna call?

Ask yourself: you're the US Space Force.  You can only call the launch providers you've certified to handle National Security payloads, and you want to demonstrate how responsive the Space Force can be.  To quote the Ghostbusters theme, who you gonna call?  Back on Dec. 17th, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, sending a military Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite to orbit in a mission called Rapid Response Trailblazer-1 (RRT-1).  

[T]his mission was a US national security space launch and was also intended to demonstrate military capabilities to condense a typical two-year mission planning cycle to less than six months. The payload, GPS III SV-07, is the seventh satellite of the GPS III constellation, built by Lockheed Martin. The spacecraft was in storage awaiting a launch on United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket.

"We decided to pull SV-07 out of storage and try to get it to the launch pad as quickly as possible," Col. James Horne, senior material leader for launch execution at the US Space Force’s Space Systems Command, told Space News. "It’s our way of demonstrating that we can be responsive to operator needs." Rather than the typical mission cycle of two years, SpaceX, Lockheed Martin, and the Space Force worked together to prep this GPS satellite for launch in a handful of months. Military officials decided to launch SV-07 with SpaceX as ULA's Vulcan rocket faced delays in becoming certified to launch national security payloads. According to Space News, Horne emphasized that this move was less about Vulcan delays and more about testing the boundaries of the NSSL program’s flexibility. “This is a way for us to demonstrate to adversaries that we can be responsive,” he said. Because SV-07 was switched to SpaceX, ULA will get to launch GPS III SV-10, originally assigned to SpaceX.

Butch and Suni to spend at least another month on orbit

You've probably seen the rumors online, but it's actually true this time and not clickbait. NASA has announced that it's delaying the SpaceX Crew-10 launch until next March instead of February.  Probably. So far. 

You know that Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams launched on Boeing's Starliner capsule last June, expecting a 10 day mission.  The Starliner, unfortunately, displayed a handful of issues on the way to the ISS, and after a couple of months of extending the mission, they were told to stay on the Space Station and Starliner would come back to Earth uncrewed. The Crew 9 mission was changed to two astronauts going up so that Butch and Suni will return in the Crew 9 Dragon.  A crew mission, like 9, is usually not set to leave the station until the next mission, Crew 10 arrives.  Now, Crew-10 will get off the ground at least a month later than expected because NASA and SpaceX teams need "time to complete processing on a new Dragon spacecraft for the mission."



Saturday, December 21, 2024

I Hate to be the Bearer of Bad News

... but the Federal Government did not shut down last night.  If you're a Fed.gov employee whose job has been rated “nonessential,” sorry, no paid vacation for you, and if you're considered essential, you already know you weren't getting that paid vacation.  Yes, I know that you don't get paid until the issue is settled so you need to live off savings for the few minutes or days that are shutdown. It never, never, hurts to have some savings you can use for times when things go pear-shaped - or however you like to describe it. 

As usual, talk about that mythical debt ceiling came up and that linked article (Business Insider) brings that up as something that was a problem. 

Republicans denied Trump's request to suspend or even eliminate the debt ceiling, which would have resolved a thorny political issue in advance of a likely GOP effort to extend Trump's 2017 tax law. According to Punchbowl News, Johnson said Republicans have agreed to address the nation's borrowing limit next year when the GOP will retake entire control over Washington.

I call the debt ceiling mythical because not once since it was made a law has the debt ceiling actually decreased or done anything to stop the debt from increasing.  The best it has done was to hold the measured debt constant for a short period while the things being shutdown stopped the debt increasing for a few days. Which has historically often meant the groups keeping track of spending and the debt were lying.  LCS - lie, cheat and steal - gets them through these times.  

Here's a chart I put together using a crude tool (Microsoft Paint) that tries to depict the life of the Debt Ceiling since its inception. There are no stops, no point where the ceiling goes continually down, nothing but constant increase. The place where they meet was labeled $6 trillion on both plots, but the vertical scale is a bit compressed on the right, so the situation is actually worse-looking.

Notice how this plot ends at about $28 trillion in 2022?  The current national debt, according the excellent US Debt Clock site is $36.25 trillion dollars. We have been adding another $1 trillion roughly every 100 days. That's pretty much 3 months or one quarter of the year. These fights and threats to shut the government down are show business of the worst time.  Not only is the outcome known in advance, they spend months writing these Continuing Resolutions or CRs to keep the government running and then drop 12 or 1500 page turds laws on the legislators with about two days to read it and approve it. Clearly proposing any changes is actively discouraged. I've run this cartoon since it first showed up because it sums up the story completely.  They set everything up so that they can look like heroes. It's all a show for people who understand nothing but headlines.

You might want to read the poem at this link: it's one of Rudyard Kipling's best.



Friday, December 20, 2024

Good Grief! It's Almost Christmas!

It has been an odd December here and I honestly have to say I don't have much Christmas spirit going.  I've come to refer to this month as, "the December of WTF??!!??" because of the cascade of odd problems and things breaking that has been a bit overwhelming.  We decorated later than the first few years after we got our artificial tree in 2017, but earlier than we used to when we had real (live) trees.  That should probably read, "real trees living the last days of their lives" rather than just "live."

One of the constant puzzles has been the fence gate problem I mentioned after Tropical Storm Milton back in October. I had tried a couple of different things but winds out the east at 20 or more would always push the fence open.  Somewhere along the line I had the realization that the exact vertical position of the latch hardware didn't matter much and after struggling with finding the right hardware for a while, I was able to lower the latch an inch or two, and get the gate to latch closed, for the first time since before Milton. We haven't had really strong Easterly winds to test it out since I finished the fix, so we'll see.

There have been plumbing problems and TV problems, our old man cat Mojo had a bloody nose for unknown reasons and an emergency vet visit but is back to being himself.  Mrs. Graybeard had her cataracts removed starting in October, getting her vision back - but not without unusual struggles getting through that. She was released on December 10th.

I could just regurgitate some of my favorite posts in an effort to enhance the Christmas spirit, or my Christmas spirit.  How about two of the pictures I've posted the most? 

This is from Roswell, New Mexico on Christmas Eve, 1949.  Found linked on Pinterest, the Great Sargasso Sea of the Internet, where you can wander for hours amid images both sublime and stupid - or both.  No true source credited.  The original URL from when I ran across the picture (six years ago) is dead.  

While going through my mom's things after she passed away back in 2013, we found this picture.  This is my brother (on the right) and me visiting Santa.  He looks a bit more skeptical than me, but he is the older and wiser brother.  While I'm not sure of the date, I'm guessing around 1960, plus or minus a year or two.  If it was 1960, I'd have been 6 and older bro 9.  That's right: this is the only "full frontal" picture of me I've posted here!

Back at the start of December, I mentioned a get together with big bro's son - my nephew and his wife, my grand niece and lots of family and friends.  This week my niece (nephew's sister) had her first baby, another grand niece. I hope to meet her soon.  Meanwhile nephew's wife is expecting their second in March. 

There have been a lot of distractions from a "plain ole Christmas" and here we are with Christmas Wednesday and the first day of Hanukkah on Thursday. 



Thursday, December 19, 2024

Blue Origin Did Something Today

As far as I can tell, Blue Origin's first New Glenn rocket did something today, it's just hard to know what it actually was.  According to the local newspaper, Florida Today, it seems like they did a wet dress rehearsal (WDR), fully fueling the vehicle and doing everything that must happen before they start the engines, without actually starting the engines for their static fire test. 

Thursday afternoon, the massive 320-foot-tall New Glenn rocket sat on Launch Pad 36 at Cape Canaveral, steam billowing from it − indicating fuel was being poured into the rocket.

Blue Origin's promised wet dress rehearsal may have been underway, where New Glenn would be fueled, but not launched. After multiple hours of steam venting from the rocket, all activity stopped − signaling they concluded the test.

The only problem is that I just find no confirmation that's what they did from the top four news sources I regularly check and a visit to the "News" page on Blue Origin's website.  I see a video from NASA Spaceflight that has visuals of the rocket with "steam billowing from it" and the narrators refer to it as a WDR.  The video is about 90 minutes long and the steam is apparent from 10 minutes in to 60 minutes - approximately in both times.

We know that Blue Origin is pushing to try to launch before the end of this year,  now only 12 days away if you count working on Christmas.  It's possible that IF this was a WDR and IF it was successful that they could go to a static fire quickly, although I can't estimate how long that might take.  I only know if it wasn't successful, it will take longer to get to the static fire and first launch.  

Screen capture of the test from NASAspaceflight.com's video. The local time at the top left is close to 30 minutes on the sliding bar visible on the video when you're manually adjusting the times.

The New Glenn has been talked about for quite a long time.  While I have no idea when I heard about it for the first time it seems like it was at least as long as this has been a primarily space-oriented blog.  It might well be the first rocket talked about as being a reusable multistage rocket.  More powerful and larger than the Falcon Heavy, the New Glenn will feature seven of the BE-4 engines also used on ULA’s new Vulcan.  There are two and three stage versions with different payload capacities, this one seems to be the two stage version. In addition to being the first flight of any version of the New Glenn, this NG-1 mission will also be aimed at certifying the vehicle for National Security missions.



Wednesday, December 18, 2024

January Rideshare Mission to the Moon

This mission is more like a Transporter rideshare mission without the Transporter hardware than competitors having to work with each other. Today we learned that this January both the next Firefly Aerospace and iSpace lunar landers will start their journeys to the moon aboard the same Falcon 9. A launch date hasn't been named.

In an online presentation late Dec. 17 to discuss preparations for its Resilience lander, Takeshi Hakamada, founder and chief executive of ispace, said that his company’s mission would launch during a six-day window in mid-January on the same rocket launching Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost 1 mission.

“The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will not only be carrying the ispace Resilience lander. Another private company’s lander aiming to reach the moon will also be riding on the same rocket as us,” he said. On-screen graphics stated that lander was Firefly’s Blue Ghost.

Apparently both SpaceX and Firefly Aerospace seem a little reluctant to talk about it.  About a week ago, Bloomberg first reported on this, noting that they had been expected to fly on separate boosters as they did on their first flights. Both Firefly and ispace didn't answer questions about this, deferring reporters to SpaceX, who didn't answer either.  Yesterday, at a NASA teleconference about the upcoming mission, Jason Kim, chief executive of Firefly, declined to discuss if his company was sharing a launch with ispace. “I would defer the answer to that to our launch provider, SpaceX,” he said. 

In the ispace presentation hours after the NASA briefing, Ryo Ujiie, chief technology officer of ispace, said that Firefly’s lander will separate first from the Falcon 9, after which the upper stage will perform another burn. After that, ispace’s Resilience lander will be deployed. 

In overview this really is simply a ride sharing mission to Low Earth Orbit. The two landers take completely different paths from LEO to the moon. Firefly's Blue Ghost lander will remain in Earth orbit for about 25 days before performing a translunar injection maneuver.  It's not wasted time, during the 25 days, ground controllers will commission the lander and begin collecting data from some of its payloads.

The lander will reach the moon four days after performing the translunar injection. It will spend 16 days in lunar orbit, calibrating its vision navigation system and moving into a low lunar orbit, before attempting a landing.

ispace's Resilience, will take a much longer route, much like their first lander.

It will first operate in an elliptical transfer orbit, then use a lunar flyby to move into a low-energy transfer trajectory, taking it about one million kilometers away before returning to enter lunar orbit. On ispace’s first mission, it took about four and half months from liftoff to its attempted landing. The spacecraft crashed during the landing because of a software flaw.

Clearly, they're simply completely different landers on completely different missions. The companies don't see each other as enemies or competitors, rather mutual explorers of that "strange new world" in orbit around us. 

Kim said he saw no potential conflicts between Firefly’s lunar mission and others, including both ispace’s Resilience and Intuitive Machines’ IM-2 mission that is currently scheduled for launch in February. IM-2 is taking a direct route to the moon that with a landing planned about a week after launch, so its operations could overlap with Blue Ghost’s.

“We call each other. We talk to each other. We root for each other,” he said. “I don’t foresee any conflicts in 2025.”

The completed Blue Ghost 1 lander, at Firefly's Texas headquarters, will launch in January on a Falcon 9.



Tuesday, December 17, 2024

FAA Grants Launch License for IFT-7

With a figurative snap of the fingers, the FAA granted a launch license for Starship's Flight Test 7 today, December 17, rendering at least part of yesterday's post obsolete.   

The article on Space.com concludes the headline with "But when will it fly?" and that's the big question. Nothing in the article contradicts things we've already heard about the flight, so the apparent date is still No Earlier Than (NET) January 11.  I found the self-praising tone that the FAA used to be the interesting part of this. 

"The FAA continues to increase efficiencies in our licensing determination activities to meet the needs of the commercial space transportation industry," Kelvin B. Coleman, FAA Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation, said in a statement. "This license modification that we are issuing is well ahead of the Starship Flight 7 launch date and is another example of the FAA’s commitment to enable safe space transportation."

Gee, one short paragraph, two sentences long, with two references to how they're not the problem, they're working to increase efficiencies, and this license is another example of how good they are.  Think they're a little motivated by the talk earlier this year about how they're holding back the US in space?  Such that now they're looking over their shoulders for DOGE raiders to come eliminate their jobs? 

There's a bit more talk about the Flight Test, saying they primarily are duplicating last month's IFT-6.  

During the Flight 6 test flight in November, SpaceX skipped the booster catch due to a sensor issue but successfully soft-landed its Starship vehicle in the Indian Ocean, capturing stunning video of the splashdown. The Starship Flight 7 test is expected to recreate that Ship landing in the ocean while also making another attempt at catching the Super Heavy booster.

"The Flight 7 mission profile involves launch of the combined Starship/Super Heavy vehicle from Boca Chica, Texas, a return to the launch site of the Super Heavy booster rocket for a catch attempt by the launch tower, and a water landing of the Starship vehicle in the Indian Ocean west of Australia," FAA officials wrote in the license update.

Static firing of the booster for FT7, last week on December 9.  Image credit: SpaceX



Monday, December 16, 2024

SpaceX Ticking off the Milestones

Ticking off the milestones on the way to Starship Flight Test 7, that is. In this case, running a successful-looking static fire of Starship 33 on Sunday Dec 15 at Boca Chica Starbase.  

Ship 33 during its static engine fire test, Dec. 15, 2024. (Image credit: SpaceX)

A video of the test from Space.com is here.

Its next launch, Integrated Flight Test-7 (IFT-7), is expected around Jan. 11, based on communications between NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which has yet to issue a launch license for the upcoming test. Once mated, the Super Heavy/Starship stack towers a staggering 400 feet (122 meters) tall, with the Starship upper stage alone standing taller than the Statue of Liberty.

There has been no announcement of the intended mission, at least not one I've been able to see.  IFT-6 back on November 18th was "mostly successful" but didn't complete one of it's major goals, to catch the SuperHeavy booster with the giant chopsticks as they accomplished on IFT-5.  I assume that will be part of this test's goals as well.  Since Ship 33 is second generation Starship and none have flown, this might be a step backwards to verify both the new things and everything that has already been tested all works as intended.  



Sunday, December 15, 2024

My Annual Favorite Christmas Song Post

Well, pretty much annual. It's that time of year again. The tree is up, the house is decorated, at least as much as we do, and we get some music trickling through.  

Regulars here know that I'm somewhat of a blues fan.  I've introduced the outrageously talented Joanne Shaw Taylor, and the late country blues master (and songwriting partner to Eric Clapton) JJ Cale.  More appropriate to Christmas, every year around this time I comment on my favorite bluesy Christmas song, “Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas.” 

The song dates from 1944, is credited to Hugh Martin and Ralph Blaine for Judy Garland's 1944 movie, Meet Me in St. Louis, but it's generally acknowledged to be Hugh Martin's writing.  The somber tone is understandable; Christmas of 1944 was three years into World War II, and many people had undergone the hardship of long separations from or the loss of family members. The war was wearing on the national psyche; the death toll was the highest seen since the Civil War.  They were dark days.  It's interesting, then, that Martin has said he wasn’t consciously writing about wartime separations.


You'll note that at the end of the song, the line isn't “hang a shining star upon the highest bough,” it's the more subdued “until then, we'll have to muddle through somehow.” Much more fitting to a more somber song written during WWII. The change to “...highest bough” (which seems to be the last) was prompted by Frank Sinatra in 1957. According to Entertainment Weekly in 2006:
Then, in 1957, Frank Sinatra — who'd already cut a lovely version with the movie's bittersweet lyrics in 1947 — came to Martin with a request for yet another pick-me-up. “He called to ask if I would rewrite the 'muddle through somehow' line,” says the songwriter. “He said, 'The name of my album is A Jolly Christmas. Do you think you could jolly up that line for me?' ”
That request led to the line we hear most often, although Martin says he thinks the original line is more “down-to-earth.”  “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” has become one of the most popular songs year after year.  EW says it's second only to the song Nat King Cole popularized: “The Christmas Song (Chestnuts Roasting on an Open Fire).”  It has been covered by a gamut of artists from Sinatra to Connie Stephens, to James Taylor (who sings something closer to the '40s, Judy Garland version) to '80s metal band Twisted Sister, and many, many more.

I'm not so one-dimensional that this is the only song I can live with for the month, though.  When I play them myself, I tend to start by playing “O Holy Night” although I can't hope to get within a light year of the ability or the vocal range of Kerrie Roberts under any circumstances.

Still, a fingerstyle guitar can approach the sound of the piano in the mix here.  I can't really link to a video that sounds like what I attempt to play because I sit with a piano song book and work from that sheet music. 

And there are more.  If asked to pick my one most favorite Christmas song, as if I could, I'd probably pick one of these two.   There are lots that are fun to listen to once or twice a year, even the cliche' “Jingle Bell Rock” is fun a few times. There are fewer that I could listen to over and over throughout this month.



Saturday, December 14, 2024

Before the Story No One Talks About Gets Too Old

Back in September, a cascade of news sources produced a graph that disappeared into the background very quickly.  It's a graph from research paper started by the Washington Post (of all places) aiming to show the most accurate reconstruction of global temperatures for the last half a billion years.  To everyone's surprise, it totally flew in the face of conventional wisdom, so nobody knew what to do about it, and consequently virtually no one talked about it.  Here's the graph - and,  yes, it doesn't say "half billion years", it says the last 485 million, 15 million short of a half billion. I'm rounding it a bit - 15 years out of 500 is 3% - just so I can write or say, "half billion" instead of "four hundred and eighty-five million." ;-)

I got this plot from Watts Up With That? (WUWT), probably the best site for truth about climate change, and I've been meaning to share this for at least a month.  The yellowish circle at the very right is now - the "current geological stage"). We are at the coolest point in the last half billion years (maybe tied with a low around 330 million years ago).  Also pretty evident is that since a short-duration temperature peak 50 million years ago, Earth has been in a cooling period.  If you want to see a zoomed in plot showing just the last 7000 years, I posted that at the end of July, 2023.

It seemed disingenuous to compare current temperatures to the coolest point in the last 7000 years, so comparing it to the coolest temperatures in the last half billion years takes disingenuous to a whole new level.

It's not strictly true that no other outlet than the Washington Post covered this; ZeroHedge covered it and their coverage by "Tyler Durden" is what WUWT based their reporting on. Go read ZeroHedge's coverage, there are several tweets in there that are worth the time to read.

To borrow the quote from ZeroHedge:

Maybe, just maybe, the level of human-caused global warming doom porn pushed by the Government, corporate media outlets, global NGOs and far-Left billionaires is not as apocalyptic as they make it sound.

Maybe, just maybe, the world was starting to recover from whatever dropped the temperature to the half billion year low and it would have started warming no matter what people were doing. Maybe we have nothing to do with the temperature changes.  If they're even real and not just made up.



Friday, December 13, 2024

Drones Over New Jersey?

It's almost hard to avoid the story about drones being reported in New Jersey and other states.  All except for the time required to read and try to extract a real meaning out of the news coverage - that's pretty easy to avoid.  So a trip to a place that ought to be fairly reasonable in its coverage seemed to be in order. Not a local news outlet, or one of the big network names maybe a site more objective?  

Unable to find one I thought would be ideal, I avoided the main media outlets and went to Forbes and "Mystery drones over New Jersey and nearby states"

What Exactly Do We Know About The Drones?

Almost nothing, New Jersey Assemblywoman Dawn Fantasia said on X Wednesday. Fantasia’s post was a lengthy summary of a legislative meeting with the Department of Homeland Security about the mysterious sightings. She described the government’s investigation strategy, which includes a coordinated effort led by the FBI with state police, the Office of Homeland Security and the U.S. Coast Guard. She described the dozens of nightly sightings as “coordinated” operations of drones “up to 6 [feet] in diameter” flying for six to seven hours—distances of 15 miles—unrelated to “hobbyists” or the Department of Homeland Security, which “appear to avoid detection by traditional methods (e.g., helicopters, radio frequencies).” They also reportedly aren’t related to military operations, the Picatinny Arsenal said in a statement to NJ Advance Media on Nov. 24.

Dawn Fantasia's post on X is worth the time to read, but all of this ignores the reporting of these drones from New York, Oregon, as well as other states and even other countries, such as the UK and Germany

The FBI and DHS released a statement on Thursday saying the investigation has “no evidence at this time” of “malicious activity” in New Jersey or a “national security or public safety threat.” The statement adds they have not identified “a foreign nexus” for the drones and will continue the investigation. It also said many of the drone sightings have been “cases of mistaken identity,” confusing drones for lawful, identified aircraft.

There are reports of "large and loud" drones that are "the size of SUVs" as opposed to the small, hobbyist class of drones.  There are reports of groups of drones coming off the ocean into New Jersey - I've seen a report of 50 coming ashore together.  There are reports of drones "going dark" and turning off running lights at night, but the mere act of keeping the lights on "most of the time" at night seems like an attempt to avoid collisions.

I'm sure you've seen the congressman saying they're Iranian and coming from a ship at sea.  I find that hard to believe. To borrow a line from the Cold War, "they can't even make a decent clock radio," so how can we expect them to make something as complex as a remote controlled flying drone. 

Besides, I notice that whomever is behind these drones, or whatever they are, they don't fly to areas full of southern, "good ole boys."  It would turn into a giant skeet shooting party. 




Thursday, December 12, 2024

The 10 Coolest Things in Space so far in this Century

Eric Berger at Ars Technica took on a pretty mundane topic over at Ars Technica, but managed to blow my mind in the setup.  The topic, the kind that's always a matter of opinion, is to rank the 25 coolest things in space so far in this century.  The subtitle, though, is the thing that kicked me in the head: “Taking stock of spaceflight one-quarter of the way through the 2000s.”  That's right, in three weeks, New Year's Day 2025, we're 1/4 of the way through the 21st century.  Sure, it's obvious when you think about it, I just never gave a moment of thought to it.  

It's an interesting read, far more interesting than the typical end-of-the-year retrospectives we get every year for New Year's, and I wouldn't dream of picking 25 things just to match the number of years but it might be fun to think about the top 10 coolest things.

10: The Voyagers continue in interstellar space

I write about the two voyagers regularly, whenever a story comes up.  Pretty much every time, the problems are things never seen before.  Components are working at temperatures they never were certified for; and that's true for every system on the pair of satellites. The team that got Voyagers started on the mission have all retired or passed away, replaced by younger engineers and techs that have to work on things that they must have confidence won't do something awful because of the two day delay between sending a command and getting results back.  This coming August and September will mark their 48th year in their four year mission. 

9: New Horizons Pluto Mission

On January 19, 2006, at 1900 UTC, Mrs. Graybeard and I were riding our bikes home from a moderately long bike ride and interrupted our ride to watch a rocket arc downrange (saying the ride was moderately long is based purely on where we pulled off the side of the road to watch it). It was the Atlas V carrying New Horizons as it started its mission to fly by Pluto.  The flyby was on July 14, 2015 - close to 9-1/2 years travel. It was the first time since the Voyagers in the 1980s that a probe reached a planet never-before seen in such resolution. No one knew what to expect and the images were jaw dropping.  

8: Philae touches down on a comet

Built by the European Space Agency, Philae was a small robotic lander that traveled to a distant comet, 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, aboard the Rosetta spacecraft. After a journey of about a decade, Rosetta reached orbit around the comet and released Philae. In November 2014, Philae touched down on the comet, but harpoons designed to anchor the spacecraft failed to deploy. Accordingly, Philae bounced a few times before coming to a soft landing on the nucleus.

This marked the first time a spacecraft had ever landed on a comet. Although lying on its side in the shadow of a steep cliff, Philae still returned rich data about the comet’s nucleus over the next half year or so.  It returned images and video from a comet that were at once familiar but also entirely alien.

7: 20 Years of Continuous Exploration on Mars

Since 2004, there have been rovers continuously exploring on Mars, starting with Spirit and Opportunity and continuing through Curiosity in 2012 and 2020’s Perseverance.  The continuous ability to observe and monitor conditions on Mars goes beyond the headline, “search for evidence of life” on Mars to a continuous ability to observe Mars, which could benefit plans to settle on the world.  

Part of the “coolness factor” of 20 years on Mars includes the Ingenuity helicopter and its 72 flights out of a planned 5.  Ingenuity is almost worthy of a spot of its own in the Top 10 coolest.

6: Kepler Space Telescope finding planets

The existence of planets outside our solar system was confirmed in the 1990s, but the launch of the Kepler Space Telescope in 2009 changed that picture.  The first planets were detected by monitoring the brightness of stars for periodic dips in brightness that would indicate a planet blocking (occulting in astronomer-talk) the star by passing between the telescope here and the star.  

Kepler did the same, monitoring the brightness of approximately 150,000 main sequence stars in our neighborhood of the Milky Way Galaxy, looking for the periodic brightness dips to identify transiting planets. To date, Kepler has detected more than 2,700 exoplanets and found that far from being rare, there are probably at least as many planets in our galaxy as stars, if not many more.  In case it’s not immediately clear, 2,700 has to be a lower limit to the number of exoplanets for two reasons: first, if the plane of the orbit doesn’t line up right, we’ll never see the occultation, and second, if the orbital period is more years than Kepler was able to observe, we’ll never see it. 

5: The James Webb Space Telescope

Another example of late and over budget, but that’s far more understandable for something never done before, like the JWST, than something that’s almost completely reuse of existing hardware like SLS. JWST is a self-deploying multi-mirror infrared (IR) telescope that was bound for an orbit that nothing can reach if the telescope needed to be fixed. A high risk mission.

After lifting off on an Ariane 5 rocket on Christmas Day 2021, the telescope spent half a year unfolding and deploying in space before finally beginning operations. But the astronomical results have been worth it. The saga of Webb has been a story of persistence and perseverance by NASA, Northrop Grumman, and other partners who strived to bring this magnificent instrument online. A happy ending was far from certain, but we got one anyway.

4: The first successful landing of an orbital class rocket

I remember this one vividly.  It was the night of December 21, 2015, from Cape Canaveral and we were watching from the backyard while listening to the Kennedy Space Center Amateur Radio Club live relay on their 2 meter repeater. The landing was below our horizon but we could see the engine burns in the night sky and hear the radio coverage.  It seemed like Sci-Fi for a rocket that had just launched a few minutes earlier to return and land near the launch site. Like many people, we had paid attention to the attempts to land on a barge at sea, and while we were hopeful, those weren’t all that encouraging. That landing changed everything, and the first recovery at sea was in April 8, 2016.

I could go on about how important reuse is, but I’ve done that too much already.

The rest of what follows is all SpaceX.

3: Demo 2 and America's return to manned spaceflight

By the spring of 2020, we had gotten used to SpaceX landing Falcon 9 boosters and their seemingly incredible rate of progress.  On the other hand, since the last Shuttle flight in 2011, NASA had seemingly been sliding backwards, forced into buying rides to the International Space Station from the Russians.  Sliding backwards, that is, until SpaceX’s Crew Dragon came along.
 
The vehicle’s first mission, carrying Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken, came during a summer of unrest when America needed a win. The country was still largely shut down by COVID-19, and its politics were fractured by the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis on May 25. America’s return to human spaceflight marked a significant technical achievement by SpaceX, which became the first private company to launch humans into orbit, and it allowed NASA to fly more astronauts to the space station and take full advantage of that facility's research capabilities. Dragon has flown more than a dozen times since.  

2: Falcon Heavy with a choreographed landing of two boosters

Choreographed for the two Falcon 9 boosters to land about one second and a few hundred feet apart on the Cape.  This Falcon Heavy launch, in February of 2018 took the #1 spot in Eric Berger’s polls of readers that he did to write his piece.  It was a visual candy treat – irresistible.  It starts with the 27 Merlin engines of the three strapped-together Falcon 9s, then that choreographed landing, and is topped off with the arresting view of a cherry red Tesla (and Starman) flying away from Earth and out toward Mars.

It was a spectacle that understandably captured the public’s attention. But the new rocket was more than a spectacle. By designing, building, and launching the Falcon Heavy, SpaceX demonstrated that a private company could independently fund and fly the largest and most powerful rocket in the world. This showed that commercial, heavy-lift rockets were possible. By providing competition to the Delta IV Heavy, the Falcon Heavy saved the US government billions. It's likely that the US government will never design and develop a rocket ever again.  

1: Catching the massive superheavy booster with the launch tower at Starbase

I’m rating this as the coolest thing in the first quarter of the 21st Century while Eric Berger at Ars Technica rated it #11.  Everyone knows the visual impact from having watched replays over and over again, I guess I’m just more impressed by that little demonstration.

On October 13 of this year, SpaceX launched its massive Starship rocket for the fifth time, but this flight profile was different in that the company sought to recover the Super Heavy first stage. Remarkably, the rocket returned to the launch site, hovered alongside the launch tower, sidled into the space between the pair of massive “chopsticks” then was plucked from the air by them and subsequently set down back on the launch mount.

There are a few reasons why this is such an important event. It demonstrates a number of important things.  First, it verifies the radical approach to catching a rocket (obviating the need for landing legs and reducing launch turnaround times). It allows SpaceX to accelerate the development and testing of Starship.  Finally, the visually stunning tower grab captured the public’s attention and brought wider recognition of Starship’s potential to change spaceflight forever.  In the first few weeks after the mission I heard more people who aren’t particularly interested in day to day space activities talking about how incredible this was, saying things like “Elon Musk makes towers that grab flying rockets out of the air” or talking about how it’s the most fantastic thing they’ve heard about since the moon landings. 



And there you have it. Lists like the Top 10 of anything are always one person's opinions and I'm sure few, if any, of you will agree with mine. I'm still not tired of watching Falcon 9s land after a successful flight, and I still stop to watch highlights of the flight test with the booster being grabbed by the chopsticks. There were some cool things in Eric's list I couldn't replicate, but he had the top 25 (for 25 years) and I stopped at 10.  

Feel free to voice any opinions, as always.



Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Another Day Got Away from Me

It was a no news kind of day until I ran into an idea for a post too late to finish it.  I'm only about 25% done, so, as usual, funnin around and I'll try to finish it tomorrow. 

From 90 miles, a truism by Candace Owens: considering the last few years, why should anyone trust "a group of national security officials?"

And a comparison of being led by the star then and now:

Oooo - a stats joke! 


It's a true statement.  To be fair, though, everyone that doesn't confuse them also ends up dying. 



Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Blue Origin Politely... Gently... Pushing the FAA

In a not-so-subtle signal to regulators, Blue Origin is saying New Glenn is ready so what's holding up our approval to test and launch?

The company published a photo of the payload called Blue Ring for the first New Glenn test flight, a programmable upper stage that's intended to get payloads to different orbits than the one originally launched into, a fairly common concept these days.  

"There is a growing demand to quickly move and position equipment and infrastructure in multiple orbits," the company's chief executive, Dave Limp, said on LinkedIn. "Blue Ring has advanced propulsion and communication capabilities for government and commercial customers to handle these maneuvers precisely and efficiently."

A small pathfinder for Blue Ring is seen set against one half of a payload fairing of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket. Credit: Blue Origin 

Blue is widely recognized as not being very public about their plans and goals. This public photo and announcement on LinkedIn are an exception to that.  Speculation is that they're signalling to the regulatory agencies that they want to get this flight before the end of '24.  

First of all, notice how small the payload is compared to the inside of the payload fairing.  That's probably to give potential customers an idea of how big their payloads can be.  This fairing is 7 meters in diameter, 23 feet.  The available fairings vary with the launch platform, so it's a bit of a jump to assume they're comparing to a specific competitor's rocket, but it does give a good first impression, along the lines of "gee, that looks big." 

Additionally, the company appears to be publicly signaling the Federal Aviation Administration and other regulatory agencies that it believes New Glenn is ready to fly, pending approval to conduct a hot fire test at Launch Complex-36, and then for a liftoff from Florida. This is a not-so-subtle message to regulators to please hurry up and complete the paperwork necessary for launch activities. It is not clear what is holding up the hot-fire and launch approval in this case, but it is often environmental issues or certification of a flight termination system.

Blue Origin's release on Tuesday was carefully worded. The headline said New Glenn was "on track" for a launch this year and stated that the Blue Ring payload is "ready" for a launch this year. As yet there is no notional or public launch date. The hot-fire test has been delayed multiple times since the company put the rocket on its launch pad on Nov. 23. It had been targeting November for the test, and more recently, this past weekend.

In addition, it could be personal.  New Glenn was originally projected to launch in 2020, and after a few years of delays, Blue's founder, Jeff Bezos, fired the former CEO, replacing him with Dave Limp in September of '23.  Limp was given a mandate to reform Blue Origin's corporate culture to make it faster and more responsive.  He was also told to get New Glenn in space by the end of '24, we just don't know if there was an actual, "or else" with that mandate.  

Let's be honest: it's a lot easier to put your expensive or valuable payload (including yourself) on a rocket that has flown a lot of times than one that has never flown. It's simply a case of the more you fly the more you can learn about the vehicle. The fact that their BE-4 engines have flown a couple of different launch vehicles on one mission is a bit of a comfort; after all, engine problems are responsible for about half of launch vehicle failures...

However, a million things can go wrong during a launch debut, and it only takes one problem for a vehicle to be lost. With such a large rocket, integrating so many new components and software programs, there could well be hidden problems discovered only in flight.

Additionally, Blue Origin needs to fly its New Glenn rocket in order to identify where the vehicle has margin. Sources have indicated that the payload capacity of the current iteration of New Glenn is closer to 25 metric tons than its advertised mass of 45 tons. This is not uncommon for new launch vehicles, and the company will be able to use real-world performance data to refine the vehicle's hardware and software for future flights. Still, those improvements can only be made after a launch occurs, when data is collected and analyzed.

It turns out that due to changes in "the Big Picture" of NASA and the administration, getting this vehicle tested ASAP could be very important to Blue Origin. As in life or death important. 

And there are other pressures on the rocket company to get moving. Officials with the incoming Trump administration are considering canceling NASA's Space Launch System rocket, a very large but expensive and inefficient-to-produce booster that is part of the agency's plan to return humans to the Moon. Therefore, they are interested to see whether Blue Origin can deliver a privately developed heavy lift rocket in New Glenn to increase the space agency's options for getting astronauts to the lunar surface. Sources have indicated that these officials very much would like to see Blue Origin play a major role in the lunar return, but before that happens the company needs to demonstrate that it can execute on its ambitious, but long-delayed, rocket.

A successful test flight could create a lot of very good Christmases; a loss of vehicle failure could create a lot of very bad Christmases.



Monday, December 9, 2024

Starship Flight Test 7 has a Date

Well, a preliminary "No Earlier Than" date, as they always are this far in advance. 

SpaceX has not yet announced a launch date for Starship's seventh test flight, but the company appears to be eyeing Jan. 11; an email sent by NASA to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration identifies that date as the target. (According to that email, NASA plans to deploy a Gulfstream V jet to observe the upcoming flight.)

The date is just under eight weeks from FT 6 on November 18, which was closer to six weeks after FT 5 on October 13.  I've seen claims that this will be the next generation Starship, and FT6 was said to be the last flight of the 1st generation. There is talk about new, heat shield tiles that aren't the sort of ceramic tiles that have been used since the Shuttle days as well as on Starship, but I've come across nothing with any detail. I'll be trying.

More importantly, work is progressing and today featured a static firing of the SuperHeavy booster.  SpaceX documented the test on X today, posting three photos and a short video of the test. 

Static firing of the booster for FT7.  Image credit: SpaceX

While not an official channel, the SpaceX Launch Manifest site has always seemed to be doing their best to keep up with SpaceX, which is no small task.  It shows that FT-7 is planned for Booster 14 and Ship 33. 

It's the busy time of year and by the calendar, Jan. 11 is only five Saturdays away.  It'll be here before we know it.  



Sunday, December 8, 2024

Days Fighting Software

I spend my days working around things written in software, but I guess nothing unique about that. It may be a road you've been down, or it may be useful to someone else, so let me tell you a story. 

The center of this story is a computer interface for battery testing from West Mountain Radio, the exact product I'm using apparently is obsolete, but they have a page full of what they call computerized battery analyzers here.  The one I have, the CBA-IV has been replaced by the CBA-V on that page. I originally got this at the Orlando Hamcation from West Mountain on a Hamfest Special price, and judging by my saved pictures of plots, that must have been in February of 2017.  

This is not a charger; all it does is a controlled discharge of the battery, and handful of other tests.  In the world of battery makers and their specifications, the rates at which you can discharge, as well as recharge, are important limits.  For batteries that might run a power tool, they tend to be rated to the capacity in Amps*hours (Amp Hours or AH) while for something like a car starter, or the various jump starter batteries you can buy now, those are rated in "Cold Cranking Amps".  In the first category, the Ryobi tools have batteries rated in Amp Hours, in different output voltages. 

Judging by the number of Ryobi tools I see around, I'm guessing a fair percentage of you have some.  I have three 4AH 18V One+ batteries, along with a 2 and a 1-1/2 AH.  With these batteries, it's pretty easy to decide on a discharge test. Consider the 4AH battery.  That means, if you were to draw a constant 4A, just the capacity C, it would discharge to "dead" in a bit under one hour.  If you discharge it 2A, that's half the capacity or C/2, and the time to discharge goes to a bit under two hours.  To get closest to the 4AH rating, the convention has been that the manufacturers pretty much rate them at the C/10 discharge or 0.4Amps. For the 2AH battery, C/10 is 0.2A, and so on. As rule of thumb, the lower the discharge current the longer the battery charge's life. That is, if you discharge a battery at C/20 and C/10, the C/20 discharge lasts longer than exactly twice what C/10 lasts and so on.

I use the CBA-IV a couple of times a year, and doing the cycles on my various rechargeable batteries pretty much can take up a month. I started out in the middle last week and had some strange things happen.  Let me start with an example of the output from the CBA.

The software popped up that screen and I just screen-captured the whole software window with the discharge curve and the measured results. Note it measured 3.78 AH, and the tab conveniently says 240625_Discharge.  The numbers are the date of the test, 6-25-2024, so last June 25th. 3.78 AH out of a 4AH hour claim is pretty good - 94.5% - especially for a battery that's several years old.  

When I went to test this same battery this week, I got a result closer to 1.2 or 1.3 AH, which is awful.  So what's going on? 

It's in plain sight on this plot.  See that horizontal line two minor divisions above the bottom of the plot?  There's a green arrowhead on the left end of the line. That line is the voltage it was discharging the battery to in order to decide the test was complete there.  That's 15.5 Volts.  While setting up the test to run this week, it said the test should end at 18.6V.  If you eyeball the plot to see where the red curve looks to hit 18.6, it looks to me like about 1.5 hours.  On the other hand, if you look at the right side of the curve, you can see that it goes into a dive downward toward fully discharged at just about 17V. Setting the discharge to 17 would get all but that last roughly 0.2AH of discharge time.

So today, after charging this battery fully, I set the discharge voltage to 17.0.  The software immediately popped up a warning that it wasn't their recommendation, "are you sure?"  I said  yes. The results came out at 2.96AH which is quite a bit degraded from this test which looks to be 3.6 at 17V.  At the moment, I'm testing the other old 4AH battery to see how it compares to this one.  Then I do the new battery.

What's up with the 18.6V vs 15.5 or the compromise 17V?  The gotcha is that I updated the software in the CBA at the start of the testing - call it Tuesday the 3rd. They apparently changed the recommended voltage in the SW update.

When things go wrong, as they sometimes will, to butcher the poem, look at the software first.


EDIT at 0930 Monday Dec.9:  It became clear this morning that I had remembered the results of that all important last test very incorrectly after I turned the computer on and compared reality to my memory.  The last three paragraphs (before the last line) have been revised to reflect the real data from the shop computer.



Saturday, December 7, 2024

Let's Breed Some Chickens - a Repost

The journey to tonight's (re-)post started with this wonderful piece of modern art on Bustednuckles on Friday the 6th. 



You see, it reminded me of something I posted in June of 2021, back closer to peak Covid insanity. I searched for the post and found it easily because it has some words and terms that are unique so the search window finds it easily (top left of the header, when you're at the top of the page).  I read it, got a good laugh out of it, showed to Mrs. Graybeard and she laughed at it, so it turned into "Why not?"  I give you:

Let's Breed Some Chickens 

Back when I was still working, Mrs. Graybeard and I would have lunch together on Fridays.  There were always places to get chicken wings for lunch near where I worked, and having wings once a week became something we just did.  After I retired, it transformed into watching a TV show or two we'd record during the week over wings on Friday nights.  Ordinarily, we'd get over a dozen whole wings to cook for dinner and whatever we didn't have for dinner became my lunch on Saturday.  

Around the time that COVID shutdowns started happening, wings started becoming scarce and hard to find at times and we had to do without.  When they started being available again, I jokingly referred to having a "strategic reserve" of wings in our big freezer, but I don't think we ever had any more than two packages in the freezer.  

If you'll recall, last year the problem was attributed to there being a large institutional demand for wings as opposed to the cuts that most people would buy for home use.  The price of wings collapsed and many were thrown away when the college bassetball tournament they call "March Madness" didn't get held.

This year, the supply started out good but then tightened up quite a bit.  The reasoning looked like it should be the same because there was no shortage of any other chicken parts.  I could walk into the meat section of the local grocery store and find dozens of packages of drum sticks, thighs, and chicken breasts, either boneless/skinless or still on the ribs.  Last week was the first week in a month when there was one small package of wings (about half of what we'd normally buy) and here's the strange part: a package of drumettes, the uppermost portion of a chicken wing.

This started to get on my nerves.  After all, chickens have exactly the same number of drumsticks, thighs and breasts as they do wings; why should those be so commonly available that the store regularly does a BOGO (buy one, get one free) on those parts, but have no wings?  Some research said that the wing restaurants were having problems getting their wings, too, and that wholesale prices for them have doubled.  Small sports bars and other restaurants that sell wings are being pinched by the prices for wings and labor going through the roof - although I bet you only heard about the labor costs.

This led to some web wandering to find out why are wings so scarce. I was surprised that Tyson, the chicken processing giant, was saying it was that their roosters weren't living up to their "job responsibilities."

Could it be the 21st century soy boy problem has moved to the chickens?  Are they feeding the roosters too much soy?  Tyson says no; they simply bought a new breed of Rooster that's supposed to produce meatier offspring, but apparently bought a sales story instead.  They promise things will be better Real Soon, Now. 

While doing my research, I stumbled across a story that might solve the situation, if we can just make something happen.  Some people in various places (cough - China) started rumors that KFC had bred chickens with spiders [now a dead link] to produce chickens with eight legs and six wings.  Since drumsticks aren't in short supply, could it be possible to breed a chicken with more wings?  Not necessarily six wings, although I don't see a problem with that.  Clearly just doubling the number of wings to four would double the production of wings in the country while not oversupplying the parts there are already plenty of. 

(Somebody's wonderful conceptual art of spider-chicken, from the previous link)  ("Spider chicken, spider chicken.  Does whatever a spider chicken does." (Source)) [same dead link]

Now you and I know that you can't crossbreed spiders and chickens.  First off, there's the enormous genetic differences, and then there's the practical issue that they're too different in size to mate.  With the exception of some of our Florida spiders who could probably do it while standing flat-footed on the ground.  Why were there never any murder hornets in Florida?  The mosquitoes raped them and left them for dead.   

But what if you could isolate genes that determine the number of limbs, and somehow get a healthy chicken with more wings?  Like I said before, they don't need to have six wings because four would double the national supply of wings. 

I know what you're thinking. Everything you buy in the store advertises it's not genetically modified and here I am proposing that we extract genes from a spider to modify the chicken genome and get more wing production. I have a theory for that, too. I think that GMO is a "Karen" word (sorry, Karen, I know you don't like being associated with that) and that the people who go to a sports bar to watch a game, drink a few beers and have a few wings are a completely different group from the people that live in fear of GMOs. I think that the two groups have virtually nothing in common. Like this is the Venn diagram of the intersection between the two:

 

Dammit! Now I want some wings.



Friday, December 6, 2024

Not Very Dangerous Asteroid to Pass Earth Early on 7 Dec, UTC

"Not very dangerous?"  I think pretty much any rock that hits Earth could be dangerous, if it happens to hit a person or something important, so why that and not use the comparison headline that calls it "Car-size?"  Much like comparing it to size of a hippo, elephant, stalk full of bananas or whatever, I always say "what car?"  Do they mean a subcompact or SUV? 

They then say it's roughly 15 feet wide and officially called 2024 XS2. 

[It] will make its closest approach to Earth for the next 10 years tonight at 9:47 p.m. EST, or  0247 GMT on Saturday, Dec. 7. 

For many of you, by the time you read this it will have been "last night." 

This is considered a close approach because it's close by astronomical standards - pretty much half the distance to the moon, 122,000 miles.  In terms of Earth orbits, that's about five times the distance of the Geostationary orbit so it seems highly unlikely it will hit anything.  

It should be a nothing.  Unless you're really unlucky.

An artist's illustration of asteroids zooming near Earth. Not this asteroid. (Image credit: ESA - P.Carril)



Thursday, December 5, 2024

NASA Announces Delays to Artemis 2 and 3

NASA called a press conference today to announce that the next two Artemis missions have been pushed out in time. Are the dates as far out as watchers have been suggesting?  

NASA announced today (Dec. 5) that it's delaying the planned launch of Artemis 2, a flight that will send four people around the moon and back, from September 2025 to April 2026. And Artemis 3, a crewed moon landing that had been targeted for late 2026, is now scheduled for mid-2027. The extra time is needed primarily to finish prepping the Orion capsule for its first-ever crewed flights, according to NASA officials.

This seems to be the resolution of details mentioned at the end of October, nearly six weeks ago, which said:

NASA says they have found the root cause of the Orion heat shield issues.  But they're not telling us what it was.  Maybe by the end of the year.

And those details were discussed. 

Everything appeared to go well on Artemis 1. However, postflight analyses revealed that Orion's heat shield wore away more unevenly during its reentry to Earth's atmosphere than engineers had predicted. Temperatures inside Orion remained near room temperature, meaning that astronauts would have remained safe, had any been aboard. But engineers needed to figure out what happened — and they've now come to some conclusions, NASA officials announced in today's press conference.

The uneven ablation was a consequence of Orion's "skip" reentry trajectory, in which the capsule bounced off the atmosphere and then came back in again multiple times. This strategy is required to dissipate the tremendous energy associated with high-speed returns from the moon, NASA officials said, but it had an unexpected downside on Artemis 1.

"While the capsule was dipping in and out of the atmosphere as part of that planned skip entry, heat accumulated inside the heat shield outer layer, leading to gases forming and becoming trapped inside the heat shield," NASA Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy said today. "This caused internal pressure to build up and led to cracking and uneven shedding of that outer layer."

The solution suggested is what has been talked about since the start of studying the heat shield issues: they will change the trajectory during re-entry away from skipping up and down to a path with a lower, more constant temperature, to keep the pockets of heated gasses from forming and being trapped inside the heat shield. 

As for how far out it has been pushed, back in November of '22, I noted that I've seen a prediction by a guy who has been scary accurate in his predictions saying that Artemis 3 won't launch until '27 instead of '25. Eric Berger at Ars Technica has better sources than I do and says, a more realistic date "for Artemis 3 is probably 2028-ish."  Today's announced date was “mid-2027” which is roughly mid-way between the just-dropped “late 2026” and Berger's “2028-ish.”

After NASA’s Orion spacecraft was recovered at the conclusion of the Artemis 1 test flight and transported to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, its heat shield was removed from the crew module inside the Operations and Checkout (O & C) Building and rotated for inspection. (Image credit: NASA)

It's worth remembering that we're in a relatively low key "space race" to land on the moon. For us it's to land on the moon again; for China it's to land for the first time.

The newly revised Artemis 3 timeline still keeps the United States ahead of China, which has said it plans to land astronauts on the moon by 2030. Both nations are targeting the lunar south pole, which is thought to be rich in water ice, a crucial resource for a settlement or research outpost.

Nelson has said repeatedly that the U.S. needs to establish its lunar toehold first, so China cannot establish norms and practices on the moon — which could include barring other nations from certain areas. And the NASA chief said today that he thinks the U.S. is in good shape to be the lunar leader.

A major hold up for Artemis 3 is that the Human Landing System (HLS) has to be ready to fly by then. SpaceX has not progressed as far as they should have, and while it's hard to not talk about the FAA delays the big picture is simply that the HLS is a long way from ready. There are reports spreading that SpaceX is trying for 25 Starship launches next year - one every other week. There are many steps that must be proven out for Artemis 3 and refueling in space so that the HLS can get to the moon is a very big one.