Another Russian Module Leaking at ISS

Remember way back on December 14 of last year, the fuss about a Soyuz module leaking?  There was discussion of whether they would need rescue by SpaceX on a Crew Dragon capsule.  The leak was found when two cosmonauts were preparing to conduct a spacewalk, and found their Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft had begun to leak uncontrollably from its cooling system.  Russian engineers eventually declared that a micrometeorite had struck the external cooling loop of the spacecraft, and deemed it unsafe to fly home. A replacement Soyuz will be sent up to replace that one, giving a ride back for the crew being rotated back home.

Today we find out that another spacecraft, a Progress supply ship, has been leaking from it's cooling system according to a statement from Roscosmos, the Russian Space Agency.  Both Roscosmos and NASA say this leak isn't a threat to the crew of seven on the ISS at the time.    

I think the second module having a leak in its cooling system probably puts the idea of both hits being micrometeorite impacts off the bottom of the probability scale.  One micrometeorite?  Sure.  Two?  What are the odds of 1?  These have to be independent events, so small probabilities become vanishingly small when they're multiplied.  That said, I know nothing about the construction of a Soyuz vs. a Progress module and how similar they might be in that aspect of design.  There are reports, though, that some preliminary data was received from the Progress vehicle that indicated a similar cooling system issue. External cameras showed flakes moving away from the Progress vehicle—frozen coolant—similar to that observed with Soyuz MS-22.

Roscosmos said Saturday the Progress incident "will have no impact on the future station program." This is likely true for Progress MS-21, at least. The spacecraft already has been packed with trash and other material to be removed from the station, and was due to leave next week, burning up in Earth's atmosphere during reentry.

However, it seems too early to make such a conclusion for future missions. A critical question is what caused the depressurization event observed Saturday.

My imprinting on the Russian way of their space efforts has been that if something works well enough, they put no more effort into designing a newer and possibly better way of doing its job.  Look at their Soyuz capsule, which has been flying since the 1960s.  It's entirely consistent to think someone might have said the cooling system on Soyuz is well-established design, let's just copy that.  

Final words to Eric Berger of Ars Technica because I like the way he puts this together.  

A few hours after the Progress depressurization Saturday there are more questions than answers, but none of this will comfort NASA as it partners with Russia to continue operating the space station. This latest Soyuz and Progress failures are just two in a long line of recent issues, including the Nauka module's misfiring thrusters in 2021, a Soyuz booster failure in 2018 that forced Aleksey Ovchinin and Nick Hague to make an emergency return to Earth, or another leaky Soyuz vehicle.

These are the kinds of problems that one might expect from a space industry in Russia that is reliant on aging infrastructure, aging technology, and quality control issues due to inadequate budgets.

An earlier Progress module departing the ISS, not the ones mentioned in the article.  NASA photo.