Actually, three weeks to launch of the "next big mission" was today, Thursday September 14, at 10:38AM, with the launch now scheduled for Thursday October 5th. It's big in the sense of being a first ever mission to "... a world made not of rock or ice, but of metal" as the project's web page at Arizona State University says. And it's big in the literal, descriptive sense; the spacecraft is so big it requires a Falcon Heavy to lift it.
Psyche is the mission that was cancelled in '22, and the cancellation had a big impact on how long it will take the satellite to reach it's target; the asteroid 16 Psyche. That one year delay moves the arrival date out three years - from 2026 to "before the end of the decade." Then there's the cost. In 2022, the Psyche mission was estimated to cost $985 million. That's now gone up to $1.23 billion.
One of my favorite things that I've read about really any satellite mission is in this statement from Lindy Elkins-Tanton, Psyche's principal investigator at Arizona State University. It's the second small paragraph.
Scientists aren't sure what awaits the Psyche spacecraft when it reaches its destination. Elkins-Tanton said modeling of the asteroid's appearance based on telescopic observations suggests it has an irregular potato-like shape.
"It's not spherical," she said. "I always say potato-shaped because potatoes come in many shapes, so I'm not wrong."
...
"We’re never going to get to our metal core (inside Earth)," Elkins-Tanton said. "The pressures are too high. The temperatures are too hot. The technology is impossible. ... But there's one way in our Solar System that we can look at a metal core, and that is by going to this asteroid.“We’ve visited bodies that are made of rock," Elkins-Tanton said. "We've visited icy asteroids. We've looked at comets and the last ... category of objects that we've never visited as a species in our Solar System is bodies made of metal. So this is primary exploration, a new kind of object that humans have never seen before."
The mission web page at ASU has an image that they use of the asteroid. I think that based on Elkins-Tanton's statement that the image is largely imaginative and not based on careful measurement of some sort of imaging or radar.
Artist's illustration of NASA's Psyche spacecraft, as it approaches the asteroid, showing (most of) one its solar arrays. NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU
From time to time, you'll run across a story of someone finding an asteroid made of gold or platinum and how rich they could get. It just kind of underlines that the author doesn't really understand supply and demand as well as the average prospector. Go to anywhere in the world where there's a good deposit of some gemstone and you'll find the people in charge won't put it all on the market at once so they don't collapse the price. Psyche is thought to more likely be the heavier metals found in planetary cores like iron, and nickel. The reasons for the mission have much more to do with understanding how rocky planets with predominantly metallic cores form than finding the value of the metals in it.
Bolt some motors to it and bring it home. Two ion motors on gimbal mounts are all that's needed for a start.
ReplyDeleteAll the orbital metals should remain in orbit or dropped on Mars or the Moon for further processing. No need to bring any of it down to Earth. Though dropping a couple nickel-iron rocks on certain places would be a good thing...
ReplyDeleteThe primary value of metals in extra planetary objects is not due to their value, but the scarcity and the uses they could be put to. Rare metals that are needed for high tech applications would make that effort well worth it.
ReplyDeleteGold and other coinage metals would, of course, lose their monetary value. However, they would be very useful replacing metals we currently use in electronics
Seems to me you're saying the same thing in both instances. Scarcity = value which is another way of saying supply vs. demand sets the price. If something goes from being scarce to plentiful, its value goes down.
DeleteAt current prices for space travel, just getting this satellite to the asteroid is costing around 3/4 of a billion bucks (I'm taking off half a billion for the price of the satellite itself - that may be too high). There's no comparable way to for me to guesstimate how much it would cost per pound to bring an asteroid back to Earth, but I'd bet any asteroid that could be brought here wouldn't drop the prices of those rare metals much. (I'm hoping Starship changes that, too)