While it has been a rather busy couple of days, an inordinate amount of time has been spent trying to determine exactly how much and what kind of prepping we should do for Hurricane Helene. We aren't going to experience hurricane conditions here, so the exact question is what should we be preparing for. Let's start here, with the 8PM update from National Hurricane Center. You'll notice that they have gone to Central time for some reason. While parts of the panhandle are in the central time zone, the place where the center line of the predicted cone crosses out of the Gulf is still on EDT. Yesterday, all those places marked 1 AM or PM would have been called 2 AM or PM.
When I say we're under tropical storm warning, you can see by the colored line that the TS warnings extend from around Tampa bay down through the Florida Keys (and Dry Tortugas islands) all the way back north to the SC/NC border.
The NHC also issues a pair of charts that show the percent chance of actually getting tropical storm winds (sustained at over 40mph) and a prediction of when they should arrive. This is the latest of those - and provides no more clarity to me.
Cape Canaveral is visible just south of the dotted line saying Thursday at 2 PM, so since that's north of us, I'd assume they would get here earlier in the day. Maybe 11AM? There's discontinuity around the Cape that shows chances of experiencing those winds goes up as the location approaches the predicted track. We're in the 20-30% chance color band, and that's about all I can get out of it.
Looking at both Weather Underground and the local National Weather Service office show neither of them predicts steady winds at minimal TS strength: NWS says 32 mph and WUnderground says 30mph. Both of those predictions are in the afternoon tomorrow. This has been the case through yesterday and today. Unlike WU, the NWS shows predicted wind gusts, and those show over 50 mph tomorrow afternoon, with one peak at 55 mph at 3PM. So since the various storm levels from tropical depression through all the hurricane categories are based on straight line winds - "gusts don't count" - and neither says we get a tropical storm, why are we under warnings? What percent chance do they decide needs the warnings?
Given the uncertainties, and the unpleasant memories from Hurricane Ian two years ago, which had far more in common with this storm than at first blush, I decided to crank my tower over. As I mentioned back in January when I did a quick fix to one of my antennas, this system is really easy to work with. (More details here) I take two nuts off both U-bolts and one at a tower leg and then just push a little to unwind the cable off the winch. Really easy to live with. I didn't pull the antennas off and crank the tower back up. My bet is that while the wind gusts with Ian snapped off both halves of an antenna element, these gusts will be weaker and with the antenna being semi-sheltered by the house and everything, the antennas will be fine. The tower and antennas were fully up during Ian, with less protection from the winds.
FL and GA should expect high winds. The storm will move quickly so maybe not much flooding. In this case, low topography relative to sea level is a concern.
ReplyDeleteFor west TN and KY, southeast MO, and south IL. Looking at the first chart, I expect lots of flooding but not much wind damage.
That's a concern that the storm lingers for 24 hours before petering out. Could be torrential.
Of course, those waters will end up in New Orleans.
Also, I see point of predicted landfall moves westerly.
ReplyDeleteThe Ten Tom and Mississippi rivers will flood?
My two younger daughters and my one SIL and their 10-yr-old decided to go to Disneyland and Universal theme parks starting tomorrow. I hope all goes well with them. They are now down and to their hotel, so no real problems in and out of Central/Southern FL apparently. Or at least Orlando.
ReplyDeleteI'm on the OTHER coast. Inland enough we're getting tropical storm warning instead of hurricane warning.
ReplyDeleteShould be gusty.
So far all predictions as to rain and wind have been... wrong. As usual. Here in North Central Florida, that is.
ReplyDeleteAnd the center track of the storm seems to be creeping westwardly ever so slowly, so I think most of Florida will be spared stupidity and doom. Except Cedar Key, because for some strange reason Cedar Key is to hurricanes what trailer parks are to tornados, and as any fool knows, "God hates mobile homes." One of the most succinct statements from one of the greatest tv shows ever, that being "WKRP in Cincinnati."
We shall see. So far these last few years I have been underwhelmed (gladly) by the predictions of the weatherguessers.
"So far these last few years I have been underwhelmed (gladly) by the predictions of the weatherguessers. "
DeleteI've actually seen an onscreen weather forecaster (except I forget who it was) say that they know they're exaggerating but if they don't do it people don't pay attention. In a sane world, if you don't do what they're suggesting and you get hurt, well too bad, so sad. Unfortunately, we left "sane world" long, long ago, when the personal injury attorneys started advertising 24/7.
I keep seeing references to the entire state of Florida being in the evacuation zone. Pure exaggeration. If everyone tried to get out of Florida, thousands would die on the roads.
Regarding evacuation, yet another reason for not having a sparky car.
DeleteAs to overwarning, it's all about the globull climate change and green nude eel.
I am pretty good, like 95% good, at looking at prediction maps and saying what the reality is going to be. If I can do it, how hard is it really?
Best wishes with your day.
ReplyDeleteHope this turns into a nothingburger.
I settled on just some basic preps. Generators ready, cooking bin ready, plenty of stored water, nothing loose around the yard. Didn't do the shutters, or the "everything two feet off the floor" in my shop. We will see if I was wise or lazy by tomorrow. The amount of rain in the forecast went down, but reliable information seems scarce.
ReplyDeleteI didn't do shutters, either. Our generator is ready but in our 40 years in this house, we've lost power so few hours, it's almost silly to have a whole-house backup generator. About a half of those hours blacked out have been scheduled. After hurricanes, up to Cat III, the most our power has been out was 36 hours, back in 2004.
DeleteWe've been here ten years, and have been without power twice for 6 days each time from storms. They moved our power lines underground this summer so here's hoping for improvement.
DeleteBest of Luck, SiG. Here is hoping you have nothing but some rain and a little wind to report.
ReplyDelete