It seems that Monday's post asking the question of whether we're within a week of Starship's first orbital test was a bit premature. NASA Spaceflight .com has good coverage of all that's going on, including a few watchable videos.
Ship 24 wasn't stacked on top of Booster 7 until Wednesday and they've stated they still have several days worth of testing, including a full Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR).
On Thursday, SpaceX did confirm a forward plan. There will be another WDR in the mix, an opportunity set to be taken next week as the launch date target settles on a window the week after. This would come before the FTS arming.
Currently, the well-publicized April 10 NET (No Earlier Than) target had been ruled out by the cancellation of local road and beach closures, with placeholders for the following two days now likely to be related to the upcoming WDR.
The launch attempt would then follow a week later, around NET April 17, based on SpaceX’s updated info.
That reference to the WDR "would come before the FTS arming" refers to the fact that arming the Flight Termination System requires lifting Starship off the booster to access the FTS system.
NSF linked to this Tweet from SpaceX corporate.
While I want to see Starship fly as much as anyone, this is all uncharted territory and people are solemnly saying that no heavy lift vehicle has ever lifted off on its first try so scrubs are not just possible, they're highly likely. They're also "learning moments" when lots of little decisions that went into constructing the countdown get trial by fire. All of this is good for Starship and SpaceX; it's worth every penny they pay to run the tests. Every hold or scrub buys risk from future missions.
The same will apply during the launch, with “priority one” involving the vehicle rising away from the pad without causing major damage to the launch site infrastructure. It could be argued that anything past that point will be a win, as the most powerful rocket in history adds the opening seconds to its maiden trip uphill.
A full mission success would result in the Booster splashing down in the Gulf of Mexico, while Ship 24 re-enters and splashes down off the coast of Hawaii.
Never forget that SpaceX works by the "hardware rich" approach. They're already in process to build more booster/ship combinations; Booster 9 and Ship 25 are well along the way to being ready for more testing. B9 is getting engines installed, and S25 has been getting tested at SpaceX's Massey property - which apparently doesn't have any cameras permanently observing.
All of which is a long-winded way of saying that if B7-S24 doesn't destroy the Orbital Launch Mount or do large amounts of damage, B9-S25 could fly next and relatively soon.
B7-S24 stacked on the Orbital Launch Mount. Photo from SpaceX on Twitter. Because it's a cool pic.
While we Texas Tank Watchers and Starbase Nerdle are eagerly anticipating the launch, this is Uncharted Territory. ANY new rocket is unique with it's problems foibles, and just plain screwups.
ReplyDeleteSo, be patient, glasshoppah!! Even Elon is saying, "It'll fly when it is ready. And it's not ready yet!" - or something like that.
But my fingernails are gone, I've chewed them down to the nub.
Was giving your comment regarding launch mount system sustaining damage when 33 engines light, and what materiels could repeatedly stand up to the heat and awesome over pressure of what is basicaly a sustained, pure oxygen enhanced methane explosion. Why not cover everything with 304L stainless steel? Same as what the rocket bodies are made of?
ReplyDeleteI know very well the practical real properties of 304L, having 44 years welding experience, 11 years welding all of the ridgid tube assembly kits for the RL10 Pratt Florida O2-Hyd rocket engine, most of the engine tubes are 304L, there's a couple aluminum tubes, 1 titanium, rest all 304. Really superb combination of properties with 304L, just ine if those fantastic mixes of alloying the perfect metal for a specific job that turn out to be superb metals for a very wide array of other uses, like 4130 and 4140 Chrome Moly, or O2 oil hardening tool steel. Classics because they really work and do so in a myriad of ways and uses.
But 304L, it has a great feature to it, how it stands up to long duration temps in the 1200-1350 degrees F range, while maintaining a high degree of tensile/yield properties it has at ambient temps, plus it maintains its non corrosive steel properties, under very corrosive conditions, as in exhaust header systems, almost non corrosive forever, in practical terms, and it self anneals with each heat/cooling cycle. Just a great set of properties, with a bonus of being far more workable in fabrication processes.
What i am trying to say is i am surprized if SpaceX did not clad the launch mount eith 304L? Got no way to find out what they used. Figure using 304 be no need for ablative coatings like used for the Apollo Titan booster launch pads.
Unstacking the vehicles to arm the FTS seems like a lot to do for just arming, unless they are installing the charges at that point. If they just needed to install a battery or some circuitry, certainly these rockets are big enough to install French doors.
ReplyDeleteMight be the arming is designed to be actuated manually, so it is as much as possible, be an "Intrinsically Safe" system. Like how that safety style is used in coal mining due to the possibilities of methane explosions, or the strong/weak safeties used in nukes. Or in crude terms how a hand grenade has a strong and a weak safety with its cotter pinned and spoon release safeties.
DeleteSo they probably have something like say, one dude whose only job is being the only human who arms and disarms the self destruct. That way they put in the last and most secure/reliable human and technology factor safety. Intrinsically, (as much as anything can be), Safe.
ps,
ReplyDeleteand using 304 it makes for a very good heat reflector, transfers heat at a rate of 34% of that of mild steel, and for the duration time of a launch, the time the cladding sustains the punishment of heat and pressures, in practical terms i would contend that 34% margin might really be a big bonus.
Replying to all of the info - thanks!
DeleteAll I really know is that for months now, they've been reinforcing the launch pad (OLM) with sheets of something and while I have no idea of how thick the shielding needs to be (and I'm sure you could tell us) we've got to know there's a lot of 304L at the shipyard! They have a full booster and three or four Starships they could recycle, too. They all appear to be there this morning.
Likewise, we know they're working on the water deluge system even now, but they've said they would do this launch without it being fully functional.
Man! Think about it for a second, nobody has seen so much horsepower in one burst before, i cant help think maybe we all are going to see something truly awe inspiring when all that mass begins to move upwards, theres just nothing like it in history.
DeleteLike to think as you and they repurpose some of the scrap bin materiel, be a great paradigm, a leviathan corporate entity reuses materiel in such a way, instead of buying new, be kind of inspiring and lend credence to Misk's improvisational vision.
DeleteExciting times! I visited the launch pad on Tuesday - pre-stack.
ReplyDeletehttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/hGaHY04LQLJIh25MSOCSMMyAWT7dwkiwQlhGOpZ_xFe8xEc5ebaiUEuxY8hb4-cJOMyZcAbs_BIqAwXFr-9vGNpJgHsUE1vpPd_88Fp6G2QAwWk-xieAnxbNh2x-jyec=w1280
I had a browser tab open all day long on Tuesday waiting for it to be lifted and stacked.
DeleteYour URL of the picture (I assume) tells me "Your client does not have permission". You can email it to me at sigraybeard at gmail if it's easier.