Weekly Small Space News Story Roundup 7

Do you remember the other significance of May 4th this year? 

May 4th was the most recent scheduled date for the United Launch Alliance Vulcan Centaur to take its first flight.   Until the test anomaly back on March 31 reset everything (this is probably the best link).  There is currently no published replacement date.  Nextspaceflight says No Earlier Than June.  I think NET August 

The payload for the first mission, the Astrobotic Peregrine lunar lander, had this little quote on their web page, acknowledging that the lander is "all dressed up with nowhere to go." 

Peregrine is assembled and ready for its journey to Florida for integration with our launch vehicle, United Launch Alliance (ULA)’s Vulcan Centaur. While the Astrobotic team is looking forward to launch, we understand ULA is conducting an investigation following a test article anomaly. The ULA team is no longer targeting a May 4, 2023 launch date and will provide a new date once the investigation is complete.

Peregrine lander at the Astrobotic factory.  Astrobotic photo.

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Is SpaceX worth investing in?

In the aftermath of the Starship Integrated Flight Test, Elon Musk said they would spend $2 billion on Starship this year.  Moreover, he said he thought the company wouldn't need to do another round of fundraising.  However the financial side of the website Quartz presents an article "How much more money can SpaceX spend on Starship?" and does a dive into the subject.  They report that there has been some weakening in the secondary market for shares of the private company. “We’re starting to see softening in demand from SpaceX. Never seen that before—always more buyers than sellers,” said Greg Martin, a managing director at Rainmaker Securities. "The $137 billion valuation in the last round is causing people to take a little bit of a pause."  Martin goes on to say, "After ByteDance, the company that created TikTok, SpaceX is considered the most valuable venture-backed company." 

It goes without saying that the economy isn't robust and healthy at all now, and high inflation leads to pressures to invest in things with a higher return.  We see a lot of pressures on the smaller launch companies and startups - as well as established companies.  Don't forget the collapse of Virgin Orbit. 

Musk’s ability to pull in huge amounts of capital for SpaceX has never been questioned before, but as more private firms face cost-cutting and lower valuations, can SpaceX continue to defy gravity? The article delves into what is known, and not known, about the company's private finances. Chris Quilty, of Quilty Analytics, points out that SpaceX’s dominant position in the space sector—particularly its current near-monopoly on US human spaceflight and flying national security missions for the US government—make it difficult to bet against Musk pulling in new capital. I agree.

Stating a company's valuation, like that $137 billion valuation for SpaceX mentioned above, always depends on what people expect it to grow into.  SpaceX's future is absolutely tied to the success of Starship.  As is the success of NASA's attempt to return to the moon, and many other things.  They will continue to attract funding if the majority believes their value as a company will grow.

(From the Ars Technica Rocket Report for May 4.  No link is available until the next day, so I'll put that here when it's available)

Edit 5/5/23 at 1940 to add link to the Rocket Report.