In last Saturday's (Mar. 2) post we talked about Astra's founders offering to buy up all shares of the company's stock, at a price below the current market price. On Thursday (today, as I write), they announced the deal was complete.
"Astra Space, Inc. announced today that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which the acquiring entity has agreed, subject to customary closing conditions, to acquire all shares of Astra common stock not already owned by it for $0.50 per share in cash," the company stated. The acquiring entity consists of Kemp, London, and other long-term investors.
Kemp and London are the co-founders of Astra.
Does Astra have a future or is it over? It's hard to say for sure but it doesn't look very bright. Recall that back in August of '22, they announced they were dropping everything they'd done and starting development of a new rocket capable of putting bigger payloads in orbit, Rocket 4.0. Before that announcement they had seven launches of their much smaller payload-rated Rocket 3.0 through 3.3 and only two were successful.
It's almost a dead certainty that Rocket 4 isn't going to launch this year, and '25 isn't looking like a sure thing, either. On top of that, they're facing fierce competition from companies well in front of them, like Rocket Lab (working on their own bigger launch vehicle, Neutron), smaller companies like Firefly along with new entrants like ABL Space and Stoke Space. All of them are facing tough competition from SpaceX, of course, with their Transporter missions that put up dozens of small satellites on the workhorse Falcon 9. The last cost numbers I saw for a ride on a Transporter mission (October '23) were $5500 per kilogram or $2500/lb. The only number I had for Rocket 3 was $70,000 per kilogram.
Then there's Starship, which will carry an unprecedented amount of payload to Low Earth Orbit. It's an old estimate (2019) but Casey Handmer had calculated the cost to orbit for Starship/Super Heavy to be $35 per kilogram.
Astra's Rocket 3 launching from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Image credit Astra. I'm unable to find a date for this launch or coverage here, so I'm guessing it failed.
Well, that sucks. But only 2 out of 7 launches isn't a great track record.
ReplyDeleteI think the customers and investors they attracted came because of the idea that a little lower reliability was a way to lower prices, but they expected something like dropping from over 90% to an 80% chance of success, not to under 30%. Once people starting seeing reality, they started fleeing.
DeleteWithout looking too deeply into it, guessing the new Astra owners have about as much capital / cash from the SPAC as Elon Musk had when he started SpaceX. With the right people, that money could be put to good use. Given Astra owners track record, they will keep Astra on life support for awhile and go public with the next market upturn, making another massive return on their investment.
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