It's getting to be that time of year

We've had a fairly quiet hurricane season so far this  year.  A few low pressure systems went over Florida north of us, there have been a few storms that went north into the North Atlantic missing Bermuda by large distances, and basically nothing around on September 10th, the peak of the season.  

It looks like we're going to have one get closer than anything this year in the next few days.  Meet Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The winds as of this 8PM map were 35 mph; it shows tropical storm status in six hours at 2AM Sunday, when it will be given the name Imelda.

Thankfully, it looks like nothing but a rain event here south of the Cape.  The center of the storm doesn't even look to be a Category I hurricane until it's north of us.  Not that a very rainy, stormy day is idyllically wonderful, but it beats stronger storms. 

One of the moderators (or founders or both) of the Central Florida Hurricane site I use regularly, who calls himself cieldumort (ciel du mort is French for sky of death), posted this graphic of expected IR brightness temperature on Monday at 1500 UTC (11:00 AM).  It's the second to last post on that linked page.

You'll note he says, "parts of the east coast may get some gross weather."  We're in the second highest reflectivity colors on the map.  As of Friday evening, our detailed forecast from our local NOAA service shows our maximum winds to be 20 mph on Monday afternoon.  I'd be less than surprised if that goes up, but it doesn't look like winds to take down the antennas and put up the shutters. 

Something about the plot above it worth noting is how the last spot is 24 hours after the second to last, it has barely moved from the previous position and it drops from hurricane to tropical storm.  Stalling offshore for practically 24 hours is a sign of perfectly balanced forces and at five days out I have a hard time believing the prediction can be that accurate.