On Friday night, local time, I posted about the next tropical storm that looked to be developing and coming closer to threatening us than any this year. A few of us had a bit of discussion to follow that post but here on Sunday night local, the bottom line is that the forecast tonight is radically different from the prediction I posted two nights ago, and I expect no issues from what is now Tropical Storm Imelda.
Here's tonight's look at the next five days worth of positions.
The date and time on this graphic (lower left, under "Tropical Storm Imelda") work out to be Monday morning, September 29th at midnight UTC. You'll note nowhere in Florida has the yellow Tropical Storm watch or blue TS warning color.
As mentioned in comments to Friday night's post, I talked about looking at some models that just weren't available until the storm was officially named as a Potential Tropical Storm and said, “Everything I saw concluded it was going to turn hard right out to sea. The models mostly varied in how far north the storm gets before it turns right.” Sure enough, every plot between the one I posted Friday until this one - all from the National Hurricane Center - showed the right turn and every successive plot had it turn out to sea sooner and farther south.
Since the first time I looked at the more detailed forecasts of our local conditions, the winds forecast for Monday have stayed the highest, but nothing beyond a slightly blustery day: winds say 18-20 steady, gusting to 30 mph.
Can it damage something? I wouldn't bet a lot that it's impossible, but these are the kinds of winds we get several times a week in our summer afternoon thunderstorms. Sometimes stuff just breaks.
But, hey, it's not even the end of September. Hurricane season isn't over until the end of November! We're not out of the woods, yet.
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