On Friday night, local time, I posted about the next tropical storm that looked to be developing and coming closer to threatening us than any this year. A few of us had a bit of discussion to follow that post but here on Sunday night local, the bottom line is that the forecast tonight is radically different from the prediction I posted two nights ago, and I expect no issues from what is now Tropical Storm Imelda.
Here's tonight's look at the next five days worth of positions.
The date and time on this graphic (lower left, under "Tropical Storm Imelda") work out to be Monday morning, September 29th at midnight UTC. You'll note nowhere in Florida has the yellow Tropical Storm watch or blue TS warning color.
As mentioned in comments to Friday night's post, I talked about looking at some models that just weren't available until the storm was officially named as a Potential Tropical Storm and said, “Everything I saw concluded it was going to turn hard right out to sea. The models mostly varied in how far north the storm gets before it turns right.” Sure enough, every plot between the one I posted Friday until this one - all from the National Hurricane Center - showed the right turn and every successive plot had it turn out to sea sooner and farther south.
Since the first time I looked at the more detailed forecasts of our local conditions, the winds forecast for Monday have stayed the highest, but nothing beyond a slightly blustery day: winds say 18-20 steady, gusting to 30 mph.
Can it damage something? I wouldn't bet a lot that it's impossible, but these are the kinds of winds we get several times a week in our summer afternoon thunderstorms. Sometimes stuff just breaks.
But, hey, it's not even the end of September. Hurricane season isn't over until the end of November! We're not out of the woods, yet.
Any comments on the 3I/ATLAS comet? It is being hyped and supposedly NASA is freaked out about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1FjjBK3i0
ReplyDeleteI know that Youtube and the internet are no place to look for or find truth but there seems to be more to this than wild eyed conspiracy theories. Supposedly NASA is planning to hit one of the larger fragments with a nuclear device to break it up before it hits the moon.
I haven't been paying much attention to it because if that's as good as alien technology can get it's incredibly, exceptionally, disappointing. I mean, yeah it's fast compared to other comets we've seen, but that's like saying a race horse is faster than a dog: that's nice, but so what? 3I/ATLAS is pathetically slow compared to light speed and we know that the chances of exploring the galaxy even at the speed of light are practically zero. Our galaxy is like 150,000 years across. We don't have the lifespan to go that far.
DeleteI've heard talk about the fragment with the small chance of hitting the moon (6%? IIRC) but haven't paid much attention to that, either. Same reasoning. I want the Star Wars or Star Trek universes where we can go anywhere in our Galaxy and it doesn't take millions of years. I'm hoping that our physics is pathetically wrong but it'll take a super intelligent alien race to fix us.
A wrong turn in there somewhere is the "how to serve man" model.