It's the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season...

It's September 10th, or what we consider August 41st around here, but no matter what you call it, it's the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.  There's nothing out there and that makes me happy.  You may also be aware that while it's the peak of the season, the Atlantic basin has been pretty quiet, with a couple of storms forming in Atlantic's Main Development Region (MDR) and heading north while staying well offshore the east coast of the US as well as west of Bermuda.  

The current photo grab shows a yellow blob in the MDR and a 20% chance of getting to tropical storm strength within the next 7 days.  The previous week or so was empty.  Before that and going back to the last weeks of August, it went through its color spectrum ending in bright red and a 90% chance of development within a few days, and then back through moderate chances (orange) to low chances (like this yellow) before dissipating without ever developing or making it to Tropical Storm strength.

Current National Hurricane Center plot. 

As always any bad weather of any kind is blamed on climate change but when the hurricane season goes quiet (for example), it's just weird weather.  Helene in NC last year?  Milton?  Both blamed on climate change.  It's a different subset of people than the ones blaming it on weather modification or malicious forces trying to buy up all the land so they can mine the lithium out of it.  In both cases the basic idea seems to be, "it seems abnormal to me, so it must be this instead of just plain weather" - where "this" is climate change, cloud seeding, Black Rock, the military, or whatever.

 

A plot of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes versus month and day.  Since we've had them in several years recently, note that little "late season" peak around the second week of October (I'm SWAGging around the 16th).  The other thing that's noteworthy is that while the peak is fairly sharp - especially on the rising side, the overall chance on August 1st is still higher than on November 10.  The whole curve is lopsided, rising faster, falling slower.  Hurricane season ends at the end of November.  The shape of the peak is a bit tilted and stays stronger longer on the right than on the left.