Back in May of 2021, I thought I could see a case emerging to say it was time for NASA to start
getting out of the "how" side of getting to the places they're interested
in and moving over to figuring out the "what we do once we're there"
side. Just one year earlier, the "Bob and Doug" or Demo-1 mission
on
May 30, 2020
was a potent demonstration that the idea of hiring private sector companies to
deliver crews as well as cargo to the ISS and all sorts of mission hardware
around the solar system was the future.
This weekend's edition of Ars Technica's site
includes an in-depth discussion with Blue Origin's CEO, Dave Limp by Stephen Clark, ARS' newest space writer. In it, Limp
comes across as strongly on that side in the discussions.
I knew very little about CEO Limp before this and honestly that's still not a
lot knowledge, but I'd be a lot more comfortable sitting around and talking
with him. By contrast I've seen enough interviews and talks with Elon
Musk that I feel like I've worked with him or dozens of high level engineers
that seem to have the same personality. I almost feel as if I know
him.
The first part of the article is largely about Limp and how he got where he
is. Perhaps the most important quote in that section is:
While he's still a relative newcomer to the space business, Limp's views
align with those of many policy wonks and industry leaders who have the ears
of senior officials in the Trump administration, including Jared Isaacman,
President Trump's nominee to become the next NASA administrator.
In remarks Thursday at the
Humans to the Moon & Mars Summit, Limp advocated for the exact same thing as I did in that May '21 post: that
NASA should hire companies from the private space industry to design and
implement the transportation and infrastructure portions of the missions
NASA wants to do.
The problem, of course is getting congress to let go of their billion dollar
babies.
However, NASA, with the backing of key congressional leaders, has held an
iron grip on having its own heavy-lift launcher and crew capsule to ferry
astronauts between Earth and destinations beyond low-Earth orbit. Now, these
vehicles—the Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft—may be canceled if Congress agrees with
Trump's proposed NASA budget.
Commercial rockets close to matching or exceeding the Space Launch System's
lift capability are available for purchase or likely will be soon. These
include
SpaceX's Starship mega-rocket
and
Blue Origin's New Glenn launcher. Both are already key elements of NASA's Artemis program, which aims to
land US astronauts on the Moon as a stepping stone toward human expeditions
to Mars.
Do we need to address how expensive SLS/Orion is again? Over $4.4
billion for ONE mission while one Falcon Heavy launch costs $178
million. SpaceX's Falcon Heavy can only lift about 2/3 of the payload of
the SLS so two Falcon Heavy launches at $356 million are required to put as
much mass into orbit as one SLS. That's still a whopping 8 % of the cost
of the SLS launch.
A sad and alarming truth is that many of us are saying to let commercial space
address these manned missions but Clark writes:
NASA's robotic science probes are also getting more expensive, even when
accounting for inflation. Given the way NASA procures science probes, it
would cost NASA more today to send an orbiter to Mars than it did for a
similarly sized spacecraft a quarter-century ago.
This has to change in order for NASA and private companies like Blue Origin
and SpaceX to make their ambitions a reality, Limp said Thursday.
Limp went on to say things with a realism you don't often hear from space
industry executives. While there's a growing list of commercially viable
markets in space that are natural places for the private sector (things like
Starlink and Kuiper internet services, space debris removal wouldn't have been
included 20 years ago), the market for human spaceflight still requires some
level of government commitment.
"I think the thing about bringing commercial aspects to exploration, to
science, to the Moon, to Mars, is that we have to see a business prospect
for it," Limp said. "We have to turn it into a business, and that benefits
American taxpayers because we will use that capital as efficiently as we can
to get to the Moon, to get to Mars in a safe way, but in a way that's the
most efficient.
"We're committed to that, no matter what the architecture looks like, but it
does take the US government and international governments to have the
motivation to do it," he continued. "There's not yet a commercial reason
only to go to the Moon with humans. There are lots of commercial reasons to
put robotics on the Moon and other types of things. So, we do need to have
conviction that the Moon is important and Mars is important as well."
The giant of the industry is Starship, of course, which isn't operational
yet. Blue's New Glenn has had one mission, back in January of this year
and it was a two stage version - there's a three stage version that hasn't
flown.
Starship is rated for payloads to orbit two to three times
the mass that New Glenn can handle: that's 100 to 150 tons to LEO
compared to 45 tons to LEO. While New Glenn has only had one mission to
successfully achieve orbit, the next mission is planned to be "later this
year," and will be the first test of their version of the Apollo Lunar
Excursion Module, which they call their MK1.
The MK2 lunar lander depicted here will carry a larger payload but will
require refueling to land (and leave!) the moon's surface.
The quote that there's no commercial reason to send humans to the moon ties to
the non-manned missions to the moon most directly. The suggested NASA
budget proposes slashing NASA's space science budget by nearly $2.3
billion, Earth science by almost $1.2 billion, and space technology by $531
million.
While Limp didn't directly address these budget proposals, these parts of
NASA are largely focused on research projects that lack a commercial
business case. Who else but a government space agency, or perhaps an
especially generous type of philanthropic multi-billionaire, would pay to
send a probe to study Jupiter's icy moon Europa? Or a robot to zip by Pluto?
Or how about a
mission like Landsat,
which documents everything from water resources to farms and urban sprawl
and makes its data freely available to anyone with an Internet
connection?
Most experts agree there are better ways to do these things. Reusable
rockets, mass-produced satellite platforms, and improved contracting
practices can bring down the costs of these missions. Bezos' long-term goal
for Blue Origin, which is to move all polluting factories off the Earth and
into space, will be easier to achieve with government support, not just
funding, Limp said.
“Getting up there, building factories on the Moon is a great step, and the
government can really help with research dollars around that," he said. "But
it still does need the labs. The science missions need the
JPLs [Jet Propulsion Laboratory]
of the world. To make the human experience right, we need the Johnson Space
Centers of the world to be able to kind of use that gold mine of
institutional knowledge.
David Limp, CEO of Blue Origin, speaks during the 2025 Humans to the Moon and Mars Summit at George Washington University in Washington, DC, on May 29, 2025. Credit: Alex Wroblewski / AFP via Getty Images