It's looking like NASA lost another mission

As we relayed in last Friday's post, Lunar Trailblazer had run into trouble soon after starting on its way to the moon.  "The probe powered up and began transmitting data after launch, but its operators began noticing power issues and then lost communication with it some 12 hours after launch." 

Today's news hasn't gotten any better.   Probably worse.

In an update published on Tuesday evening, the space agency acknowledged that a mission operations team at the California Institute of Technology is continuing its efforts to reestablish contact with the 200-kg spacecraft intended to orbit the Moon.

"Based on telemetry before the loss of signal last week and ground-based radar data collected March 2, the team believes the spacecraft is spinning slowly in a low-power state," the space agency said. "They will continue to monitor for signals should the spacecraft orientation change to where the solar panels receive more sunlight, increasing their output to support higher-power operations and communication."

As a result of this, mission controllers were unable to command thrusters on the satellite to do a course correction that would enable it to attain its planned orbit around the Moon, a polar orbit 100 km above the surface.  If communication could be restored, it's possible that the probe could do some sort of mission, but not the originally intended one to study the form, amount, and location of lunar ice in permanently shadowed craters. 

Pulling a paragraph from last Friday's post:

Lunar Trailblazer was a selection of NASA’s SIMPLEx (Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration) competition, which provides opportunities for low-cost science spacecraft to ride-share with selected primary missions. To maintain the lower overall cost, SIMPLEx missions have a higher risk posture and less-stringent requirements for oversight and management. This higher risk acceptance bolsters NASA’s portfolio of targeted science missions designed to test pioneering technologies.   

Today's reference link paints a fairly awful picture about these missions.  They list five of these low-cost science missions showing that not one of them succeeded and offered any science return on investment.  Of the five, Trailblazer was a standout.  

It was significantly larger than most of the other SIMPLEx spacecraft, and its cost exceeded the $55 million cap for such missions. Its cost as of late 2022 was $72 million. Due to this higher value, NASA allocated additional resources to ensure its success. Trailblazer's primary contractor was also swapped from Ball Aerospace to Lockheed Martin.

"Lock-mart?"  I might just see your problem.  Another Old Space / Space 1.0 company that needs to answer "so what have you done lately?"  (Editor's note: That link is absolutely not a serious thing.)

In 2022, the Planetary Society did a survey of members to come up with priorities.  They said NASA should increase the cost cap of these missions to $80 million - 45% - to get a higher chance of success. 

Artist's depiction of Lunar Trailblazer at work around the moon. (Image credit: Lockheed Martin Space/Lunar Trailblazer)