Sunday, December 12, 2010

When Will Really Bad Inflation Hit?

It's a tough question, but one heavy on my mind as we come to the end of the year.  If I'm going to get most of my 401k emptied and into inflation hedges, this would be the time to do it, I think.

The National Inflation Association published an article a few weeks ago answering questions about when they think we'll see their food price predictions, "There is a very good chance of our projections being reached by the end of calendar year 2015 and a slight chance that they will be reached as soon as the 2012 elections."   John Williams, of Shadowstats.com, says in this interview (from 12/8) thinks it could be much sooner; that it could be as soon as this spring. 

The Bernank is 100% sure he can handle inflation.  (I'm not sure he'd know what it was if it bit him on the ass.)  But bear in mind that if he did raise interest rates, it would collapse the US economy into a deep black hole.  Shadowstats says the real inflation rate is running around 8% per year; if the Fed's Discount Rate were to be raised from zero to that, yes, it would stop inflation -- as well as everything.  It would help Treasury Bond Sales, which are currently crapping out (as anyone with even a nano-particle of sense realizes we're in trouble and they want more "yield" to make up for the risk of buying our bonds), but that's the only thing that might be considered help.

Collapsing the US economy might not necessarily be a bad thing - sometimes, when you're really sick, you need very strong medicine.  Think chemotherapy.  Maybe a reset pulse is what we need; a chance to demolish the welfare state, tear up 2/3 of the CFR.  There's good that could come out of it.  But whoever allowed it to happen would not survive.  Politically, and possibly, well, maybe not survive at all.  And it's entirely possible that during the chaos, the state could be taken over by communists, or other morons.  

So when will it get really bad?  I can't answer that.  But I can't stay here long; need to go buy some more silver and gold.  The brass, copper and lead got ordered last night. 

a little depression-era humor... 

1 comment:

Xenocles said...

You hit it exactly right. The real problem with the "let it burn" approach is that our side is not in a strong position to control the aftermath. A complete reset would be an awesome opportunity for improvement, but given the apparent mindset of our citizens I fear an obliteration of the few remaining active good parts of our system is the more likely outcome.